Zinc price stopped falling and rebounded in September

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the decline stopped and picked up in the first week of September, and the zinc price rose for four consecutive trading days in September. As of September 7, the price of zinc was 22893.33 yuan / ton, up 0.51% from 22613.33 yuan / ton on September 1 and 22776.67 yuan / ton at the end of August (August 31). In September, the zinc price stopped falling and rebounded, and the zinc market recovered.

Zinc spot basis rose in September

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 7, 2021, the maximum 180 day main basis of zinc (Changjiang nonferrous metals) was 850.00, the minimum was 360.00, and the average was 624.27. The maximum value of 90 day main basis is 850.00, the minimum value is 510.00, and the average value is 708.10. In September, the current basis of zinc market fluctuated and rose.

Overview and Outlook

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business society, believes that the current basis of the zinc market fluctuated and rose in September, the spot price of the zinc market rose all the way, the futures price of the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted in September, and the rise of the futures zinc price was significantly lower than that of the spot zinc price. The rising power of the future zinc market is insufficient, and it is expected that the future zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price data

As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6702.50 yuan / ton, down 0.97% from 6768.25 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 6515.00 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 6572.50 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton.

On September 5, the naphtha commodity index was 82.72, the same as yesterday, down 19.39% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 95.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to decline, the refined naphtha market was weak, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the market mentality was negative.

Upstream: international crude oil rose, mainly due to the expected warming of global economic recovery and favorable U.S. economic data. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its oil demand forecast for next year, resulting in a strong increase in oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell this week. The price of toluene was 5620.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5630.00 yuan / ton on September 30, down 0.18%. Mixed xylene fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 5710.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on August 30, down 0.35%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX price fell slightly this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic PX was 7100 yuan / ton, down 2.74% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there are 8 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (9.47%), power coal (4.16%) and coke (3.62%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were diesel (- 0.79%), gasoline (- 0.56%) and naphtha (- 0.48%). Both rose or fell by 1.4% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rise of international crude oil, but the local refining naphtha market is weak, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading is less, the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 3, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 30 (the average price was reduced by 9233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 967 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47% during the week.

Since late August, the domestic butanone market has been weak as a whole. On the 25th and 26th, the butanone market began to decline in South China due to the restriction of high price transactions.

In this week, the decline of butanone opened in most parts of China on the 30th and 31st of the week, and the price of butanone decreased significantly. The cumulative decline for two consecutive days is referred to as 500-800 yuan / ton. From the middle of the week to the weekend, the decline of butanone price tightened, and the price stability mood of the operators is high, but the downstream demand boost is not obvious. The wait-and-see mood continues, and the market transaction is general, Shandong butanone factory continued to reduce the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton. As of September 3, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong was around 8100-8400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu was around 8000-8300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average ex factory price of butanone was 8266 yuan / ton as of September 3, down 967 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week, The weekly decline was 10.47%.

Upstream, Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and rose this week, with frequent but limited fluctuations during the week. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4733.33 yuan / ton on August 29 and 4743.33 yuan / ton on September 3, with an increase of 0.21% during the week and 4.25% compared with the same period last year. This week, the trend of Shandong civil gas market showed a down up down trend. Although the price was adjusted frequently during the week, the range was small, and the overall narrow consolidation was the main trend. At the beginning of the week, that is, at the end of August, due to weak terminal demand, cautious downstream mentality and general enthusiasm for entering the market, the manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, and the profit was mainly delivered. In the middle of the week, the CP price was introduced in September, and both propylene and butane rose, which gave a certain boost to the market. In addition, the volatile rise of international crude oil brought phased benefits to the civil gas market, the market supply was low, and the downstream market replenished, and the price increased. At the weekend, most of the civil gas market in Shandong maintained stability, and individual manufacturers adjusted according to their own conditions, and fell sporadically.

Future analysis of butanone

This week, the domestic butanone price decreased significantly and the market trading atmosphere was general, but the operators had sufficient confidence in keeping the price, and the downward range continued to be limited in the later stage. Therefore, butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly maintain a narrow consolidation and operation.

Zinc prices rebounded slightly on September 2

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price on September 2 was 22620.00 yuan / ton, which rebounded and warmed up compared with the zinc price of 22613.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (August 31), an increase of 0.03%. In September, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted slightly, and the zinc market fluctuated and stabilized.

The discount increase in the spot market is relatively stable

On September 2, Shanghai 0# zinc ingot reported 22430 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, and Shanghai 1# zinc ingot reported 22360 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream brands focuses on the next month’s premium of 160-180 yuan, which is 150-170 yuan / ton compared with yesterday’s premium, which is relatively stable. On September 2, Nanchu Foshan 0# zinc ingot (high price) reported 22410 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, and 1# zinc ingot reported 22340 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton. Premium price (for the next month): the premium is 150 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, and the premium rises slightly. In the overall market, shippers actively inquired and shipped, the brand circulation was stable, some shipholders were willing to support the price, and the trading atmosphere was general.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business society, believes that the supply and demand fundamentals of zinc city were relatively stable in September, and there was no decisive force to intervene to break the market supply and demand balance in the short term. The zinc city continued to maintain the weak balance between supply and demand, and the zinc price remained in the shock range for adjustment in the future. In the future, attention was paid to power rationing, downstream construction, inventory, import and export, smelting construction, etc.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose first and then fell in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of this month, and fluctuated and fell in the second ten days of this month. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan / ton; On August 31, the price was 5730 yuan / ton, down 2.88% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 63.25%.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly due to tight supply, but the downstream continued demand was weak and stable, and the rising power of mixed xylene was insufficient. With the broad decline of crude oil, the weak stability of the market was broken, the bearish psychology increased, and the mixed benzene and toluene followed the decline of crude oil. The rebound of crude oil led to a slight recovery of mixed xylene mentality, but the downstream demand shrank again, and the price fell again at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, the trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose after falling in August. The market is still concerned about the impact of delta mutation virus on demand recovery. Compared with July 30, Brent fell by US $3.34/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell $4.45/barrel, or 7.37%.

In terms of external market, as of August 31, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $770.5/t, down US $42 / T or 5.17% from July 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 792 US dollars / ton, down 41 US dollars / ton or 4.92% from July 30.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX market stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the beginning of the month and 58.7% over the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated downward this month. At the end of the month, the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China stabilized after rising at the beginning of the month and rose again at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6360 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.58% over the beginning of the month and 44.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of delta virus still restricts the recovery of demand, and international oil prices are under short-term pressure. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The short-term weak demand side is difficult to change, and mixed xylene is expected to continue the weak trend. In September, pay attention to whether the downstream demand has improved. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.