Most London Metals fell, and Lun lead rose 0.57% boosted by the decline in inventory. Most domestic metal markets were green at night, and Shanghai lead rose 1.17% driven by Lun lead. Shanghai lead continued its upward trend in the morning. As of the closing on August 2, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai lead 2109 was 16070 yuan / ton, up 1.04%.

Boosted by the futures market, the quotation range of 1# lead ingots in the domestic spot lead market is about 15700-15800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15750 yuan / ton, an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Prices rose back, there were few market inquiries in the downstream, the overall purchase intention was still low, and the downstream remained mainly on the sidelines. Overall, the downstream is gradually entering the peak season, but the market demand expectation is still soft, and the demand side is afraid that the peak season will not be prosperous in the future. At present, the domestic lead inventory is still on the high side, and the downstream just needs to purchase as a whole. In the future, the business community believes that the lead price will remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of domestic local refiners continued to rise this week. The average market price in Shandong was 2435.75 yuan / ton on July 31, up 2.42% from 2378.25 yuan / ton on July 26.

On July 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 189.45, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 183.23% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the maintenance of refineries increased, the supply of petroleum coke decreased, the inventory was low, and the local coking price rose well.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose, US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and tight supply boosted oil prices. Data show that US crude oil supply hit the lowest level since January 2020, and oil prices further increased.

Downstream: the price of upstream petroleum coke continues to rise, and carbon enterprises continue to operate under pressure under the cost pressure of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of July 31, the price was 19856.67 yuan / ton; The short-term tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate, but the willingness to receive goods at high prices in the downstream is not strong, and the market price of metal silicon rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 30th week of 2021 (7.26-7.30), including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (8.05%), coking coal (6.22%) and petroleum coke (2.42%). There were three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were fuel oil (- 0.52%), gasoline (- 0.49%) and naphtha (- 0.28%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.45%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the local refineries have been overhauled one after another recently, the local petroleum coke supply is tight, the inventory is low, the electrolytic aluminum market performs well, and the carbon enterprises are under pressure. It is expected that the petroleum coke will remain stable in the near future.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the acetic acid market was sorted upward. On the 29th, the price of acetic acid was 5983.33 yuan / ton, up 2.28% from the previous working day. As of July 29, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, On June 28, June 29th , Price rise and fall

East China, 5800-6350 yuan / ton, 5900-6350 yuan / ton, one hundred

South China, 5750-5850 yuan / ton, 5900-6000 yuan / ton, one hundred and fifty

North China, 5600-5700 yuan / ton , RMB 5600-5800 / ton, one hundred

Shandong region, 5850-5900 yuan / ton , 5950-6000 yuan / ton , one hundred

Jiangsu region, 5700-5800 yuan / ton, 5800-5900 yuan / ton , one hundred

Zhejiang region, 7800-7900 yuan / ton , 5900-6000 yuan / ton , one hundred and fifty

Hebei region, 5900 yuan / ton, 6000 yuan / ton , one hundred

The domestic acetic acid market rose slightly. Huayi acetic acid plant in Guangxi and Anhui stopped due to failure, and individual acetic acid enterprises increased their quotations. East China, North China and South China all increased to varying degrees. At present, the inventory of acetic acid market is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, traders just need to buy rationally, the purchase is limited, enterprises have more transactions and negotiate for shipment, and the actual transaction price of acetic acid is low, The market trading is relatively stable, the atmosphere in the venue is mainly wait-and-see, and there is little room for short-term increase. In the later stage, the acetic acid market will be sorted and operated, and the trading situation in the downstream market will be observed.

Near the end of the month, the three polyethylene spot varieties continued the trend, and the difference still existed. On the 27th, the LDPE market still rose locally, with a range of 50-200 yuan / ton. LLDPE and HDPE remained stable, but the trend of HDPE was still weak.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 25 and 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price remained stable, with an overall increase of 1.00% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10500.00 yuan / ton on July 25 and 10575.00 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price increased by 0.71%, and the overall price increased by 3.45% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 25 and 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 26. During this period, the price remained stable, with an overall decrease of 0.72% compared with July 1.

In July, the overall trend of the three polyethylene spot varieties was different, with ups and downs. LLDPE and LDPE in East China have risen since July, while HDPE has mainly fallen below. Near the end of the month, LDPE is still the main actor, and HDPE is vulnerable and difficult to change. On the 26th, the ex factory price of petrochemical rose and fell, the high-pressure market increased steadily, and the cost support remained. However, traders have a general mentality, most of the quotations are downward, the downstream currently maintains taking goods on demand, and the overall enthusiasm for entering the market is not high.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 22nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / ton. The price center of ethylene market in Europe moved upward. As of the 22nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1160-1170 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1063-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 22nd, the price is US $1045-1062 / T. recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The increase of ethylene in the United States in the early stage is relatively large and stable in the near future. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene external market demand is good recently, the purchasing atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the center of gravity of ethylene market moves upward.

On July 26, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8315, the highest price was 8335, the lowest price was 8160, the closing price was 8165, the former settlement price was 8345, the settlement price was 8240, down 180, down 2.16%, the trading volume was 424648, the position was 306683, and the daily position was increased by – 3926（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, Liansu futures market is opening lower and lower, petrochemical prices rise and fall differently, and the positive support of the market is limited. In terms of demand, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in the later stage of agricultural film, the operating rate of pipes will decrease significantly, and the overall demand will not change much. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weaker than that in the early stage. Multidimensional holds to make up on demand, continues the negotiation mode, the merchant’s mentality is general, and most quotations are downward. It is expected that the PE spot market will remain sideways in the short term, dominated by shocks, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of plastic futures.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 26th, the nickel price continued to rise. The spot nickel quotation was 147083.33 yuan / ton, up 2.74% from the previous trading day, 14.79% from the beginning of the year and 35.66% year-on-year.

Spot nickel prices continued to rise slightly, with a single day increase of 4000 yuan / ton. The rise of nickel price is related to the increased demand boosted by the development of new energy industry. First, BHP Billiton, a global mining giant, suddenly announced that it had signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla, a new energy vehicle giant, which was provided by its company Western nickel. Then Toyota suddenly announced that the “bipolar NiMH battery” had been put into mass production and installed in the hybrid system. In terms of supply, affected by the weather and epidemic situation, Philippine shipments are also relatively small, and nickel ore prices are high. According to the latest estimate of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global demand for cobalt and nickel will increase 20 times in the next 20 years, resulting in nickel shortage.

Forecast: the supply is tight and the demand is optimistic. It is expected that the nickel price will still operate strongly in the short term.