According to the data of the business club, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 52000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. As of June 30, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 89666.67 yuan / ton, up 72.44% in half a year. On June 30, the mainstream quotation of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market was 87000 ~ 92000 yuan / ton.

In the first quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market rose steadily, with a quarterly increase of 44.23%. In the first quarter, the price of upstream lithium carbonate continued to rise, the cost support continued to strengthen, and the demand of downstream increased, which accelerated the consumption of low price inventory in the market. The market supply and demand pattern gradually improved, and the support market steadily went up. With the tight spot supply in the market, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry increased, the business mentality was firm, and the market price atmosphere was strong, Lithium hydroxide rose sharply in the first quarter and then kept stable at a high level.

In the second quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market continued to rise, with a quarterly increase of 19.56%. In April, the market supply and demand side support performance is stable, the market is difficult to find low-cost sources, and enterprises mainly deliver early orders. In May, the upstream spodumene was tight with high prices, and the cost was supported to a certain extent. In addition, the tight spot supply led to the upward market driven by the incremental demand. In June, the supply and demand side had strong support, the market favorable supporting factors continued, and the market was strong.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate Market in the first half of 2021 rose broadly. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on June 30 was 86600 yuan / ton, up 73.20% compared with the price at the beginning of the year. On June 30, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, up 65.57% compared with the price at the beginning of the year.

Analysts of lithium hydroxide from business news agency believe that in July, the support of market supply and demand still exists. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will mainly run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 9383.33 yuan / ton on April 1, 2021, and the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 10733.33 yuan / ton by June 30, with an increase of 14.39% in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the lowest price was 9066.67 yuan / ton on June 1, and the highest price was 15233.33 yuan / ton on May 8, with the maximum amplitude of 68.01%.

The melamine market rose strongly in April, with the price breaking through 10000 yuan and rising all the way. In early May, the price continued to rise, reaching a new high. In the first half of April, the manufacturers had more orders to send and the spot supply was tight. In the second half of April, the cost support rose and the demand side exports were better, which were the main factors supporting the rise of melamine market. In the first ten days of May, the export market still performed well. Supported by the orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, the tense situation of spot supply continued, and the quotation of enterprises continued to rise, reaching a new high. On May 8, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 15233.33 yuan / ton, up 200.66% year on year.

In the middle and late May, the price of melamine fell from high pressure, and the decline started. The undertaking capacity of downstream enterprises continued to decrease, and the follow-up of new domestic trade orders was insufficient. In addition, the melamine operation rate was high, and the focus of market negotiation continued to decline. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the lower reaches mainly stayed on the sidelines, and the downturn continued. After the price fell to the lowest point in the second quarter, the price stopped falling and rebounded in early June, Strong cost support, coupled with the improvement of downstream demand to support the market price rise, melamine market rose steadily in June, with an increase of 18.38%.

For upstream urea, the urea market in Shandong rose in the second quarter. As of June 30, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2800 yuan / ton, up 29.03% compared with April 1 (2170 yuan / ton). In July, the price of urea was temporarily stable.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that in July, the price of upstream urea is temporarily stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The market performance is general, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the price of melamine will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream.

According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on June 30, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9087.5 yuan / ton, down 1.64% from 9150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 43.14% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the price trend of PVC market as a whole showed a downward trend, and there was a rebound operation near the end of the month, but the center of gravity still moved down, and the market was relatively volatile. In June, the maintenance of PVC devices was not much, and the market supply was increased. In June and July, the PVC market entered the off-season, with the start-up load of downstream enterprises reduced, the demand for PVC decreased, and the external market weakened. The PVC market was in a weak situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in the gradual decline of prices, and the delivery of PVC enterprises was not optimistic, There is more room for negotiation, and the attitude of business owners is more bearish. However, the price of raw material calcium carbide rises, supporting PVC price is not easy to fall, so the monthly decline is not big.

At present, the downstream PVC products industry starts generally in the off-season. In addition to the power rationing in some areas in June and the strict safety inspection during July 1, the start-up load continues to drop. The profile, pipe and other products industry maintains at the medium level, while the membrane, wire and cable enterprises start fairly well, about 80% or 90%. On the whole, the start-up load drop in the off-season is the general trend, As a result, the purchase mood of PVC is not high, and only just need to take the goods, the transaction atmosphere turns light.

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8850-9100 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9050-9180 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9020-9150 yuan / ton,; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9080-9170 yuan / ton; Local markets were stable and down.

In terms of futures, futures prices rebounded many times and then fell back in June, with obvious rebound in the middle and the end of the month. However, the spot market was cautious in following the rise, and the price adjustment of enterprises was not large enough to boost the market. July 1 v2109 contract opening price: 8695, the highest price: 8745, the lowest price: 8650, position: 405181, settlement price: 8695, yesterday settlement: 8710, down 15.

region technology 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) 6 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks

East China Calcium carbide process 9030-9010 9220-9330 – 190/-320 Delivery

south China Calcium carbide process 9080-9150 9180-9300 – 100/-150 Delivery

North China Calcium carbide process 8930-9010 9130-9270 – 200/-260 To

southwest Calcium carbide process 8950-9100 9050-9200 – 100/-100 To

On June 30, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.47/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars or 0.7%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 74.62 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.34 U.S. dollars or 0.5%. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a drop in crude oil storage last week, and now it has dropped for six consecutive weeks; And the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that this year’s oil supply situation is tight.

Ethylene, June 30, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1219-1230 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1069-1080 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. On June 30, the US ethylene market quoted a price of 660-673 US dollars / ton, up 45 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market rose, and the demand was good. On June 30, the price of ethylene in Asia was 908-914 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 873-879 US dollars / ton in Southeast Asia. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may rise in the later stage.

On July 1, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4600.00, up 10.4% compared with that on June 1 (4166.67). The price of blue charcoal in the upstream rose slightly, with better cost support. The PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. Calcium carbide fell slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts from business news agency believe that PVC market supply increased and demand weakened in June. With the support of cost and inventory, futures prices rebounded many times, while spot market price adjustment was not large, enterprise shipment was not optimistic, and transaction atmosphere became weak. In July, the influence of off-season factors remains, the contradiction between supply and demand may be further obvious, and the PVC market may continue to weaken, with the focus moving down.

According to the data of the business news agency’s block list, the price trend of TDI market was downward. On the 30th, the average price of East China market was 13866.67 yuan / ton, down 2.35% month on month.

Domestic TDI market wait-and-see finishing, floor trading atmosphere continues to be light, the offer enthusiasm of the goods holders is not high, the downstream inquiry is general, the terminal market is in the off-season, just need to purchase mainly, and the market becomes a small number of orders. By the end of June 30, TDI’s domestic goods with tickets out of East China market should be around 13200-13400 yuan / ton, and Shanghai’s goods with tickets out should be around 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

The upstream toluene market was weak and volatile, supported by high crude oil level, and there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. On the 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was 5761 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with yesterday’s price. Due to weak demand and maintenance of some downstream devices, toluene is expected to maintain weak and volatile, so we should pay attention to the maintenance of toluene devices.

According to TDI data analyst of business society, at present, the domestic TDI market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the shippers are not enthusiastic about shipping. They maintain the principle of negotiation. Judging from the dynamics of large factories at the end of the month, the overall market fluctuates little, while the downstream market is in the off-season, and there is no good news to support the market. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a stable operation in the later period, and pay attention to the dynamics of the terminal downstream.

On June 29, most of the energy and chemical products in the domestic commodity futures market fell, with the main PTA futures 2109 closing at 5044 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton, or 2.51%. The spot market followed suit, with an average price of 5100 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the previous day and up 40.87% year on year.

Crude oil rush down, bad market mentality. As of June 28, international crude oil WTI closed at US $72.91/barrel, down US $1.14/barrel compared with the previous trading day, while Brent closed at US $74.68/barrel, down US $1.50/barrel compared with the previous trading day.

Recent domestic PTA plant changes unit: 10000 tons / year

manufacturing enterprise Plant capacity Device changes

Ningbo Yisheng sixty-five Permanent closure on June 29

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty Start the test run around June 20

Hailun petrochemical one hundred and twenty It will stop around June 7 and restart in early August

Yizheng Chemical Fiber sixty-five Maintenance on June 25 for one week

Hengli Dalian two hundred and fifty It was originally planned to be overhauled for 2 weeks on June 1, 2021, but now it is postponed

In terms of equipment, Ningbo Yisheng 650000t / A was shut down permanently on June 29. Yisheng new material 3.3 million tons / year started its test run around June 20. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 84%.

The downstream polyester maintains 90% of the high starting load, and the polyester filament price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increases by 50-200 yuan / ton. Due to the influence of off-season, the orders of terminal textile are light, the enthusiasm of factory production is not high, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see for raw materials.

Business analysts believe that the current high crude oil down and PTA processing fees high, resulting in PTA market down. Later still need to pay attention to PTA new capacity test news, as well as crude oil trend.