From the trend chart, it can be seen that the domestic price of Dy 2.31 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.29 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.775 million yuan / ton, and TB 2.825 million yuan / ton in the domestic market.

There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising continuously. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has reached a high level.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on February 1 was 473 points, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), it decreased by 52.70%, and increased by 74.54% compared with the lowest 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past three months, the rare earth index of business community has risen by about 100 points, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market can not be ignored. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the price of terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and the price of its own series continues to rise.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business analysts expect the price of rare earth market in the later period Or will continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. The price of xylene was 4230 yuan / ton on January 24 and 4350 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 31), up 120 yuan / ton or 2.84% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. Xylene supply was stable in the week, and the dealers had a good attitude of supporting the price. In terms of external market, as of January 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 599 US dollars / ton, up 21.5 US dollars / ton or 3.72% on January 22, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 613 US dollars / ton, up 20.5 US dollars / ton or 3.46% on January 22. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 76900 tons, down 11000 tons from last week.

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized this week, the weekend average price at 5200 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 24.64%. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. This week, the operation rate of p-xylene plant in Asia dropped to 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the external price of PX remained volatile this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $665-667 / T FOB Korea and US $683-685 / t CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rebounded after a slight decline this week. On January 31, the price was 3856.67 yuan / ton, up 0.41% compared with last week and down 21.06% year on year. The domestic PTA start-up rate is above 87%. The planned overhaul of Ningbo Yisheng 2 million ton plant will be carried out from January 24.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 4700 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s o-benzene price was temporarily stable, the external quotation was adjusted in a volatile manner, and the supply of o-benzene was stable; at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded, the demand for o-benzene rose, the rising power of o-benzene was released, the rising power of o-benzene increased, and it was expected that o-benzene would hit the bottom and rebound.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The downstream terminals are shut down one after another, the logistics is reduced, and the mixed xylene market is expected to enter a stable price consolidation period. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price data

As of January 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 5557.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 5500 yuan / ton.

On January 29, the naphtha commodity index was 68.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.25% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.17% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of naphtha from local refineries dropped slightly. Refineries were active in shipping, mainly in destocking.

Upstream: U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and the global epidemic is still serious. The market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions that may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell 0.56%.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene continued to rise in China this week. On January 25, the price of toluene was 4150 yuan / ton; on January 29, the price of toluene was 4225 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, or 1.81%. This week, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. On January 25, xylene price was 4230 yuan / ton; on January 29, xylene price was 4320 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 2.13%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week. The domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. The average price at the weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market is supported by the international crude oil and domestic terminal market in the near future, but affected by the domestic epidemic, the logistics is limited, and refineries are actively de stocking at the end of the year. It is expected that the price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha will be stable in the near future, at about 5500 yuan / ton.

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on January 29 was 14886.67 yuan / ton, which was 5.34% lower than the average price of 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1).

At present, the horizontal movement of aluminum price is prominent, mainly based on the following factors:

1. Inventory weakening is less than expected

At present, near the end of the aluminum consumption off-season, the market expected social inventory accumulation phenomenon is less than expected. Social inventory is hovering below 700000 tons. At the end of December, this wave of inventory is slow, less than expected, and even slightly down in the near future.

2. High proportion of aluminum water supply and high output of extruded aluminum ingot

It is reported that in January 2021, the weighted proportion of molten aluminum in the aluminum industry was 64.61%, only 3.61% lower than that of last month; that is to say, the monthly increase of aluminum ingots was about 120000 tons, about 180000 tons lower than that of previous years.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market still rose in late January, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of January 28, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 29900 yuan / ton, up 1.70% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream adipic acid of PA66, China’s adipic acid market ended its downward trend in June, and the trend recovered. Most dealers quote tentatively high, East China, South China and other regions generally rose. At present, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remains stable, about 80%. The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable. At present, the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory is not great. In the early stage, the dealers had a wave of price reduction to remove the inventory. At present, the social inventory is more reasonable. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream years ago, the pressure on the supply side is generally controllable. However, near the Spring Festival, the market may gradually accumulate in the later period. Under the influence of the off-season effect of adipic acid, the market supply pressure may rise in the later period. Mainly due to the increased pressure on enterprises to ship, high price support may be unsustainable. It is expected that the market will have a smooth transition before the festival, and a small drop in prices will not be ruled out.

Adipic acid supported the cost side of PA66. Due to the tight supply of adiponitrile, the supply of PA66 was still slightly tight in late January, and the improvement of supply was limited. At the end of last year, the operating rate of Zhejiang Huafeng rose, and there was basically no news of a rise in the supply side. At present, domestic polymerization plants are mainly used to meet the contract orders, and the shortage situation outside the main customers may be even worse. At present, PA66 has no pressure on inventory, and the industry is willing to support the price. In addition, the upstream raw material has a high rise, while PA66 obtains the cost support, it is also supported by the cost pressure. Recently, there is just a need to pull the hoarding operation before the Spring Festival, and the domestic spot price has gone up.

Business analysts believe: PA66 in late January domestic market trend is strong, spot prices rose. The upstream product market remained firm after rising, which supported the cost of PA66. The price of outer market PA66 is at a high level, and before that, many international big factories have increased the product price of PA66 industry chain. The downstream take goods passively follow-up, just need to buy mainly, although the stock before the festival is gradually completed, but the cost side pressure makes the market reluctant to sell at low prices. PA66 market is expected to remain high in the short term.