The market of liquid ammonia rose sharply in March. According to the monitoring of the business association, the monthly increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3700-3850 yuan / ton.

In the first half of March, the liquid ammonia market was mainly stable, and the domestic supply and demand were basically balanced. With the constraints of urea price, the liquid ammonia market remained tepid. In the second half of March, the liquid ammonia market was like a rocket, and the price continued to rise. The main reason was the shortage of supply caused by frequent maintenance of large factories in the market. Many manufacturers in different regions in China carried out maintenance one after another, which gradually spread from the shortage of regional supply to the shortage of national supply, In Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi, there are large factories overhauling, especially in Northeast China, two of which are overhauling. In addition, some factories in Shandong stop selling liquid ammonia for their own use, and the market shortage leads to continuous price rise, especially in the latter half of the year. Basically, the price rises every day, with a range of 50-100. In addition, due to the impact of urea price rise, the price of urea has increased since March In the case of India’s urea bidding in June, the price of domestic urea continued to rise when the domestic urea export was good. The addition of urea at the same time meant the reduction of liquid ammonia, especially in the areas with ammonia shortage. The demand side is rigid and stable. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the downstream replenishment increases, and the supply exceeds the demand, which leads to the continuous sharp surge of liquid ammonia.

Urea price trend chart

In terms of urea, urea rose intensively in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring of the business society, urea rose by nearly 5% from March 15 to 31. On the one hand, foreign trade led domestic trade procurement, large factories frequently repaired urea, and the domestic market inventory was also at a low level. Although some light storage sources were released at the beginning of April, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia plants continued to decline due to the impact of double control, and the market expected to have a negative impact on domestic supply The effect is still obvious. It is expected that the short-term urea price will strengthen or continue to break through, and will seek a balance between export and domestic supply.

Map of price trend of map

Price trend of DAP

As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point, and the rising trend is weak. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 3.36% in March, while the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 8.32%. It can be seen that the downstream is still weak. The price rise of the upstream may further affect the profits of the downstream. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period. With the end of spring cultivation and fertilizer preparation, the agricultural demand continues to weaken It is expected that the high price of raw materials may further lead to the decline of demand.

In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future. After the Qingming Festival, the news of plant start-up will be released, large plants in Henan may resume production after the festival, and the plant in Chongqing will resume production in mid April. In addition, the delivery of goods in Northeast China will also increase, and the supply is expected to increase slowly in the near future. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market has continued to rise since August 10, 2020. Take 40d as an example, as of March 5, 2021, the highest point is 69600 yuan / ton, with an increase of 123.79%, reaching a new high in nearly 10 years. The average price of 40d is 67600 yuan / ton. At present, the market is selling goods at low prices, and all parties have more panic about the future market. Spandex industry started around 90%, high level operation, part of the fine denier factory supply is still tight, manufacturers continue to hand over orders, but the new order follow-up carefully. Inventory is still at a low level, although a small rebound in individual manufacturers inventory, but the overall market trend remains high.

Current market price of spandex (yuan / ton)

20D, 30D , 40D

Zhejiang: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Jiangsu Province: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

The price of PTMEG in the raw material market is high. At present, the 1800 molecular weight supply is around 40000 yuan / ton offered by the mainstream factory, and 35000-42000 yuan / ton is referred for the actual order negotiation. About 80% of the PTMEG industry started operation and maintained stable operation. In April, there will be more unit maintenance, including 135000 tons in Jiaxing Xiaoxing, 60000 tons in Hangzhou Sanlong and 50000 tons in Xinjiang Meike, 60000 tons in Panjin Changchun, and 40000 tons in Yizheng Dalian. The pure MDI market continued to decline, with traders accompanying the shipment. The current market negotiation is around 23000 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

The start-up of the downstream market remains normal. The start-up level of the circular knitting machine market in Xiaoshao, Zhejiang, Changshu, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong is about 60%, 50%, 50% and 70% respectively.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the current high level of spandex market is adjusted, the start-up of manufacturers’ devices is maintained at a high level, and the supply of goods in the market is stabilized. The terminal demand in April has attracted much attention, which involves the seasonal fabric conversion. Downstream customers are slightly cautious in taking goods. According to the order follow-up situation, the overall market trading atmosphere is cautious. The cost side support effect is also slightly weakened, and it is expected that the spandex market will be stable and weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

Nylon price chart

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of March 30, the DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 19280 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton or 0.42% from the beginning of March; the price of nylon POY was 16875 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton or 0.15%; the price of nylon FDY was 19450 yuan / ton, down 225 yuan / ton or 1.14%. In May and March, domestic nylon filament prices were mainly adjusted, from a small rise at the beginning of the month to a stable in the middle of the month, and then to a small decline at the end of the month.

Affected by the decline of upstream industrial chain products, the price of nylon is difficult to support. In March, the domestic market of nylon upstream product cyclohexanone dropped significantly, the product prices of downstream caprolactam factories fell, the market confidence weakened, the manufacturers’ purchasing rhythm slowed down, and the cyclohexanone enterprises sold at a profit. The domestic market of PA6 fell from a high level, and the spot price has been pulled back. In the early stage, PA6 was boosted by the tightening supply of the international crude oil and chemical industry chain. At present, the supply side is more abundant than before, and the downstream plants buy as they use, so the purchasing enthusiasm is not good.

Because the price of nylon is at a high level, the downstream manufacturers basically take the goods just as needed, the atmosphere at both ends of supply and marketing is light, and the actual trading is not much. Factory shipment is slow, inventory has an increasing trend, domestic and foreign sales are relatively weak in the early stage.

3、 Future forecast:

After a bold price increase in February, the domestic nylon market experienced a smooth transition in March. Due to the expected decline of raw material cost support, insufficient support at the cost side and limited order support, once the support for raw material cost collapsed, nylon filament could not be spared. Nylon prices are expected to move downward in the short term.

This week, the domestic BDO market light consolidation, a small dip. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of March 26, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31000 yuan / ton, up 4.64% month on month and 217.62% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 29000-30500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in South China is 29000-30800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic BDO market mainly fell, and the actual transaction was light. On the whole, the supply side is still positive, and the factory’s price keeping mentality continues. Most downstream factories maintain contract procurement or digest inventory, and the enthusiasm of spot procurement is not strong. In terms of shipping, traders are not enthusiastic about trading. They usually follow the market and negotiate with each other slightly.

In terms of the unit, Dongyuan 100000 ton unit was shut down from March 15 to 21 to replace the catalyst. Now it has been restarted with 60% load. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the load of Panjin Dalian is 60-70%. Xinye stopped to replace the catalyst on March 20 and raised it to full load on March 25. Shaanxi Ronghe is expected to produce products at the end of the month. Tianye plans to restart a 60000 ton plant in early April.

Part of the traders shipping mentality, narrow profit negotiation. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market is in a downturn in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell slightly this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 65673.33 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 66888.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.32% from the beginning of the year, and up 68.55% from the same period last year. LME March copper fell this week. It opened at $9020 at the beginning of the week, then fell to close at $8702. This week, Shanghai copper fell. It opened at 66510 yuan on Monday. After the opening, the price fell to 64930 yuan, and finally closed at 66170 yuan. This week, the price rose 130 yuan, or 0.13%.

Affected by the continuous rise of the US dollar, the fund is weak as a whole, suppressing copper prices. Recently, the copper price fluctuated at a high level, the domestic inventory accumulated, and the industrial drive weakened. At present, the domestic monetary policy is loose, and the total demand increased. After April, the demand for cables from infrastructure and real estate will gradually pick up, while the supply side’s expectation of gradually going to the warehouse will remain unchanged, considering the low price ratio and the concentration of refinery maintenance in the second quarter and the limited supply increment of refined copper. Generally speaking, the downstream investment demand is weak, while the consumption demand is fair. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, mainly volatile trend.