According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 6900 yuan / ton on December 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 7000 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 1.45% and a year-on-year increase of 26.81%.

In terms of regional market situation, the market in Northeast China was reorganized, the market in East China and Shandong was on the lookout, the market in Henan was stable, the market in South China and Guangxi was strong, the market in Dongguan was weak, the market in Anhui was weak, the market in Sichuan was reorganized, and the market in Yunnan was active.

From the perspective of raw material corn, the price of corn this month was first depressed and then increased. At the beginning of the month, due to the centralized listing of grain and the regulation of national policies, the auction increased from this month, and the one-time reserve level should not be underestimated In the first ten days of this month, the price of raw material corn declined slightly, but the price of grain was affected by the increase of downstream demand and the continuous fermentation of the storm of grain grabbing. The price continued to rise, and the price of corn remained high. In terms of demand, the demand for liquor is coming to an end. In terms of chemical demand, ethyl acetate is on the decline this month, while the demand for ethanol is significantly reduced, and other downstream products are basically just in demand.

This month, the price of logistics from Northeast China to Shandong and Northern Jiangsu rose sharply, with the price of 450 yuan / ton from Heilongjiang to Shandong, 560 yuan / ton from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu, 230-240 yuan / ton from Henan to Hubei, and 250 yuan / ton from Henan to Anhui. Shipping prices have not changed much.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

About 7500 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

Heilongjiang Province ﹣ corn alcohol general grade ﹣ 6350-6550 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

In Guangxi, the price of honey alcohol is 7150-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6750-7000 yuan / ton

In Guangxi area, ﹣ 7600-7650 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol

About 7200-7300 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

Cassava with tax: 7800 yuan / ton

Tax inclusive RMB 6950-7000 tons

In Henan Province, ﹣ 7600-7650 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 6850-6900 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7500-7600 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ￥ 7600-7650 / T

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6800-6900 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

Anhui Province ﹣ general corn ﹣ 7000-7150 yuan / ton, tax included

About 6900 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

Anhui Province: 7800-7850 yuan / ton, tax included

Raw material corn prices continue to remain high, corn ethanol costs continue to remain high, ethanol production enterprises reduce negative production, logistics impact will continue, business community ethanol analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly volatile.

Monitoring shows that the market of polyaluminum chloride in 2020 is also tortuous. After the first half of winter, fortunately, the second half is still warm. Since the price rise of calcium powder, polyaluminum chloride has experienced a number of major factors: first, the price of raw materials rises, and the cost of enterprises rises; then, the price rises gradually with the “golden nine silver ten”; then, it meets the requirements of environmental protection to stop production, and the supply of goods is short, so it has to rise. So far, there will be a small rise in the second half of 2020, which is not easy.

However, compared with the market in 2019, the situation in 2020 is more severe, and the overall price is lower than that in the same period of last year.

The market analysis of specific months in 2020 is as follows:

During the period from the Spring Festival holiday in January to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production areas stopped production and delayed the resumption of work.

In February, in the first and middle of the year, the company stopped production; after the 20th, the manufacturers in Henan resumed work and delivered goods one after another, some of them only resumed work but not production, and the accumulated demand in the early stage was delivered one after another. As the transportation system is gradually recovering and the cost of raw materials is increasing, the ex factory quotation of polyaluminum is increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s delivery is back to normal. The main quotation of polyaluminum chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) market in the current month is about 1833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 1833.33 yuan / ton on the 29th. The main quotation range of domestic market is mainly concentrated in: 1800-2200 yuan / ton for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%), and 400-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%).

In March, polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returned to work and production in good condition, logistics gradually recovered, transportation costs have been normal, inventory was still in consumption before the year, some enterprises with high inventory, in the current situation of weak demand, prices slightly decreased. The mainstream quotation in domestic market: 1750-2200 yuan / ton for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) and 350-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%). Some quotations have been reduced. The reduction range of solid is about 100-150 yuan / ton and that of liquid is about 50 yuan / ton.

In April, the production of polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises had high inventory, and the overall quotation showed a slight downward trend. Main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860-900 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1200-1250 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1600-2000 yuan / ton; spray content is more than 30% 30% yuan 1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content is more than 28% 28% quoted price 1850 yuan / ton, food price quoted yuan yuan / ton. The price at the end of the month is about 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, with a decrease rate of 4.44%. In April, the overall production was normal. Due to the difficulty in shipping, some enterprises still had high inventory, and the output was affected.

In May, the price of polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) was lower than that in April, and the mainstream quotation was relatively stable. The overall quotation range of the whole country did not change much in that month, and the price of some other manufacturers decreased slightly, about 20-50 yuan / ton. The main quotations in China are: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1100-1200 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1580-2000 yuan / ton in solid content, 28% or more in spray grade. The price is about 2800 yuan / ton. During the month, the overall demand of polyaluminum chloride market did not recover, the market was poor, the shipment was general, and the transaction continued to be weak.

In June, the raw materials did not change much. The natural gas used for drying rebounded about 1 percentage point from the bottom this month and then turned downward. The overall decline was about 0.25%, which had little impact on the market. The downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is still weak. Affected by the industrial environment of water treatment, the overall situation in the first half of the year has not changed much, and the overall environment is poor, so the market of polyaluminum chloride is unavoidably weak. During the month, the overall market was stable and slightly declined, and the domestic mainstream quotation changed little. The mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% was about 1775 yuan / ton on the 1st of this month, and about 1762.5 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a slight drop of 0.7%.

In July, under the influence of the weak environment, the market demand is not good, the poly aluminum market will inevitably continue to be weak, and the sales pressure is high. The small price reduction is obvious in the first half of this month, and the frequency of downward adjustment in the second half of this month is relatively lower and more stable. However, from the perspective of the trend of the second half of this month, it is not surprising that the situation is downward.

In August, the water treatment industry began to change, because the price of raw material calcium powder increased from 80 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers were constrained by the rising cost and increased the market price of polyaluminum chloride. The mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% showed a slight rise, including 1561.43 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1571.43 yuan / ton on the 31st, with an increase of 0.64% in August The highest point was about 1582.86 yuan / ton on August 25, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19%. The main influencing factor was the increase in the price of calcium powder.

In September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% first stabilized and then rose, which was stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half. The mainstream price on the 1st was 1571.43 yuan / ton, while the mainstream price on the 29th was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.27%. This month, the price of calcium powder remained the same as that in August, and the price of hydrochloric acid, the raw material, increased significantly, and it was necessary to queue up to pick up the goods. Although the prices of calcium powder and other raw materials purchased by some enterprises have risen, which affects the ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride; generally speaking, the downstream demand of water treatment industry did not enter the actual sales peak season in the current month, and the market rise is mainly subject to the pressure of the cost side, so the market has certain expectations for the future trend of water treatment industry.

In October, the price of polyaluminum chloride rose significantly in the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects is significantly increased. The mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% rose, with the highest price of 1675.71 yuan / ton on the 22nd, the biggest increase of 3.35%, and then decreased slightly. The current increase is about 2.47%, and the mainstream quotation is about 1661.43 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price of raw material hydrochloric acid and natural gas, the cost of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers increased in the current month, with an increase of about 150 yuan / ton. September and October are also the traditional sales peak season of the industry, especially October, which is the best month of the year.

In November, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to fluctuate and rise. The lowest mainstream price of solid and content ≥ 28% polyaluminum chloride appeared at 1682.86 yuan / ton in the first ten days of the month, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.4%. Among them, on the basis of the price increase of raw material hydrochloric acid and calcium powder in the first two months and the price rise of fuel natural gas used in the production process, and the influence factors of the shortage of supply caused by the shutdown of manufacturers under the requirements of environmental protection policy in the heating season in the current month, the price of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise in the middle and late ten days, and some manufacturers in Henan increased by about 300 yuan / ton. In the middle of the month, the factory stopped production, but the supply was not sufficient.

In December, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise significantly. According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% was about 1740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest price at the end of the month was about 1825 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.93%. This price is also the highest price of polyaluminum chloride in 2020. In the first ten days of the month, the shortage of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers was not obvious, but it began to appear in the middle and late ten days. Although the downstream demand is not much more prosperous than in previous years, the shortage of goods gradually boosts the relatively strong market.

Future forecast: business community monitoring found that the current raw material market is relatively stable, and manufacturers are still in a state of shutdown, whether normal production after new year’s day has not been clearly informed. At this time of polyaluminum chloride, the next half of the highest price of the end of 2020. In January 2021, under the uncertain situation of the manufacturer’s resumption of production, the shortage of some sources of goods may last for a period of time. After new year’s day, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday and the increasingly cold weather, the demand for polyaluminum chloride will be much lighter. It is preliminarily estimated that the price will be mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly in the first ten days of this month, then stabilized after a slight drop in the middle of this month, and then fell in a straight line in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7712 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 7209 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 6.52%; on December 8 and 9, the price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 11.99%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business community, propylene prices rose continuously in late November, with an increase of over 12%. From the end of November to the beginning of December, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price began to rise comprehensively. From the 3rd to the 8th, the price rose about 450 yuan / ton, up 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was stable comprehensively. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for it, while some enterprises fell slightly. From the 11th to the 14th, the price went down 200-250 yuan / ton. From the 15th to the 23rd, the price rose slightly and became stable. On the 24th, the price began to decline again. So far, it has gone down 750-80 yuan The current market turnover has dropped to 7100 ~ 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7150 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturer has a little more inventory, more profit making and more low price goods.

On the upstream side, crude oil rose slightly on December 30, with little impact on propylene.

This month, PP fell by 10.11%, and the futures market also declined, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices rose by 87.87% in the first and second half of the month, which had a limited impact on the price of propylene.

Propylene oxide remained stable in the first half of this month, and continued to rise in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 10.10% and a monthly amplitude of 11.61%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin showed a ladder like downward trend in the first half of this month and a ladder like upward trend in the second half of this month, with a monthly decline of 4.34% and a monthly amplitude of 9.18%.

Isopropanol continued to decline this month, with a monthly decline of 22.19% and a monthly amplitude of 23.15%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable in the first half of this month, and continued to rise after a slight decline in the second half of this month. At the end of the month, there was an obvious downward trend, with a monthly increase of 1.83% and a monthly amplitude of 13.42%, which had a small negative impact on the propylene market.

Octanol rose steadily this month and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 29.09%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China dropped sharply in the middle of this month, with a monthly decline of 8.55% and a monthly amplitude of 9.08%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

Acetone market in East China fell sharply, with a monthly decline of 31.22%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: Overall, propylene inventory is increasing, crude oil price is rising slightly, downstream market is empty more than much, overall slightly depressed, mainly just need to purchase, so it is expected that propylene price will continue to decline in the near future.

Price quotation: the maximum amplitude of the whole year is 112.67%

In 2020, the domestic aggregate MDI market will rise sharply, and it will fall back slightly until the end of the fourth quarter and the beginning of November. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI was 12925 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and 18125 yuan / ton on December 30, 2020, with an overall increase of 40.23%. The lowest price of the whole year was 11050 yuan / ton on April 10, and the highest price was 23500 yuan / ton on November 4, with the maximum amplitude of 112.67%. The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of the whole year are as follows: the decrease in the supply of foreign equipment for maintenance, the low start-up of domestic equipment and the limited supply.

Main production enterprises: settlement price of many months has risen sharply month on month

In the whole year of 2020, the monthly listing price of Wanhua chemical polymerization MDI increased for 5 months, remained unchanged for 6 months, and decreased for 1 month. At the beginning of 2020, the aggregate MDI market has a bad start. It will rise month by month in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, the lower reaches will resist the high price and mainly wait and see.

According to the monthly K-bar chart of business club’s aggregate MDI, the number of months in which the market price of aggregate MDI in East China rose was 8, with the maximum monthly increase of 23.28%, and the number of months in which the market price fell was 4, with the maximum monthly decrease of 8.74%, with the overall increase in the majority.

According to the annual price comparison chart of business club’s aggregate MDI, in three of the five years, the domestic aggregate MDI market showed a trend of narrow fluctuation and slow rise in the first three quarters, and began to fall in the middle of the fourth quarter. At present, the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly on the wait-and-see basis, and the downstream has resistance to the high price sentiment. However, with the traditional double festival approaching, there is no lack of downstream just need replenishment, and the aggregate MDI market may maintain a high level.

Foreign devices: new and overhauled

Cosson launched the new MDI production process pilot plant in Germany: the hard foam component MDI (Ya Jiaji two phenyl diisocyanate) for building and refrigeration equipment has achieved significant breakthroughs. Kostrong (Leverkusen, Germany) successfully put into operation a pilot plant based on innovative ADIP (adiabatic isothermal photo gasification) technology in its brunsb ü TTEL plant. This new technology is expected to significantly improve energy efficiency, and marks an important milestone in the development of science and technology to circular economy. At the online ceremony, the plant was officially unveiled with Jan Philipp Albrecht, Minister of energy, agriculture, environment, nature and digital of Schleswig Holstein, Germany.

The December overhaul plan of Ningbo phase II MDI plant of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was announced: according to the announcement of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd., the MDI phase II plant (800000 tons / year) of Wanhua chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. will be shut down for overhaul on December 15, 2020, and the overhaul time will be about 25 days.

Since 2020, the environmental protection water treatment industry has experienced a difficult year. In the first quarter, the epidemic stopped work, in the second quarter, work resumed gradually, and in the third quarter, the market was light. After crossing the golden nine silver ten, in the fourth quarter, the price rose slightly, and the production has been suspended due to environmental protection requirements. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency (100ppi), the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) was 15950 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, and 14500 yuan / ton on December 29, with an annual drop of 9.09%; the 15950 yuan / ton on January 1 was also the highest price of this year, and the lowest price appeared on July 31, only 13566.67%, with the biggest annual vibration 94%.

The monthly market of Polyacrylamide in 2020 is as follows:

During the Spring Festival and related holidays in the main production area, production will be delayed to January 20. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, the logistics returned to normal and mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and some of the raw material costs were reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in higher inventory. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP meltblown cloth mask” industrial chain, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile first dropped sharply, while the cost of polyacrylamide dropped. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products, and rebounded continuously in the second half of the month, but there was no obvious change in the manufacturer’s price. In fact, most manufacturers hoard raw materials, and the cost at the time of purchase determines the price. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. After a slight shock in September, it remained stable, the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. The prosperity of the industry improved in October, but the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuel. Although the raw material price of polyacrylamide also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not increase as obviously as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, facing the heating season, the environmental protection requirements are strict. Affected by this, the polyacrylamide manufacturers almost stop production at this time of the year, and the acrylonitrile rises sharply in that month. The downstream demand is weak, the upstream cost is high, the polyacrylamide manufacturers are under great pressure, and the price increases frequently, but the increase rate is not very large. Polyacrylamide manufacturers stop production in December, the main raw material supply will be affected by the shortage of water, that is, the demand for raw materials will be reduced rapidly in December.

To sum up, the water treatment industry will be more difficult in 2020. Manufacturers believe that this year is worse than in previous years. With regard to the future market, the current macroeconomic environment is relatively complex, the domestic economy is good, but the international situation is grim. Under such conditions, the demand side is affected by many factors. Generally speaking, the possibility of significant changes in the price of acrylonitrile in the near future is not great, and the demand of downstream users of water treatment will weaken after the completion of goods preparation a year ago. Whether the manufacturers in the main production areas can resume production depends on the specific requirements of environmental protection. At present, there are many uncertain factors. If they continue to stop production, some prices will rise slightly, but the overall strength is not big, and the overall market is mainly stable.