1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose. This week, the average price of mainstream factory offer of octanol in Shandong decreased by 0.33% to 9966.67 yuan / ton on December 8 from 10000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and then rose to 9983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 43.30% over the same period of last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index of 73.41 on December 11.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturers in Shandong Province have increased their ex factory quotation this week: Jianlan chemical’s offer of octanol is 10000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol at the end of this week is 9850 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol this weekend is 10100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quotation rising from 8095.45 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8102.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.09%, 20.25% compared with the same period last year. The high price consolidation of upstream raw material market, affected by supply and demand, has a positive impact on octanol price.

The downstream market of octanol, DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP quotation fell from 9700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.34%, and a year-on-year increase of 31.22% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about octanol procurement, octanol demand is general, and future market operators are more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of December, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Upstream propylene market high consolidation, strong raw material support, although the downstream DOP market in a small decline, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good, octanol supply is normal. Octanol analysts from the business agency believe that: in mid December, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of isopropanol rose first and then fell this week, and the overall price was slightly improved. The average price of isopropanol in China was 9500 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and 9533.33 yuan / ton this weekend. The price of isopropanol increased by 0.35% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Chart: comparison of acetone and isopropanol price trend from August to November

The price of isopropanol rose first and then fell under the influence of acetone this week, and the overall price slightly increased. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on December 8, while the isopropanol market in Europe closed stable. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 9400-9700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 9600-9700 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 9600 yuan / ton. The quotation of isopropanol from propylene process is about 9700 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market rose first and then fell this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic acetone price was 8500 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and the average price was 8750 yuan / ton at the end of this week, and the price increased by 2.94% during the week. At present, the acetone market negotiation center of gravity rose after a correction, acetone port supply has been replenished, under the pressure of shippers, the offer decreased. At present, the discussion on acetone market in East China is relatively light. The acetone market is expected to be weak in the short term.

In terms of raw material propylene, propylene market also showed the situation of first rising and then falling this week, but the decline was limited. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic propylene price at the end of last week was 7843.73 yuan / ton, while the average price of this weekend was 8102.73 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 3.3% during the week. At present, propylene manufacturers have a small inventory, smooth shipment, crude oil price fluctuation, the downstream market generally, began to cool down, so it is expected that the propylene price may decline in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of chemical branch of business club think: raw materials acetone and propylene are bearish in the future, which is unfavorable to the cost support of isopropanol. International aspect isopropanol price closed stable, isopropanol export orders continued. At present, the domestic market demand is light, traders mainly wait and see. It is expected that the price of propanol will continue to fall in the short term, and the follow-up attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of December 10, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 4.12%, compared with the average price of 11333 yuan / ton on December 1.

In the first ten days of December, the domestic n-propanol market rose twice, up 4.12%

Since the beginning of December, the overall market of n-propanol in China has been on the rise, mainly due to two reasons. In terms of raw materials, the ethylene external market continues to be at a high level, which supports the cost of n-propanol. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of n-propanol factory is low, and the spot is not much. The factory supplies more cooperative contract users. The factory spot is tight, and the on-site spot stock is basically in the secondary market. Therefore, on December 2, some n-propanol holders in Shandong Province began to increase the ex factory quotation of n-propanol by 300-500 yuan / T, and then the overall high level of the market remained stable. Entering this week, on December 8, the suppliers of n-propanol in Jinan, Shandong province raised the ex factory price of n-propanol again by 200-300 yuan / T, and the market of n-propanol in Nanjing was stable.

At present, in Shandong Province, the reference ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water is 10800-11000 yuan / ton, including package, the factory price reference is 11600-12000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10900 yuan / T. Nanjing: the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10500-10800 yuan tons. Domestic Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.), n-propanol production unit started normal, normal shipment, n-propanol bulk water ex factory quotation of 10500 yuan / T, the price is temporarily stable. As of December 10, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 466 yuan / ton or 4.12% compared with the average price of 11333 yuan / ton on December 1.

In terms of raw materials, since December, the external market of ethylene has been in a dominant position as a whole. In the past two days, the market has declined slightly, but the overall level is still high. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen in recent days. On December 7, the price was 942.50 US dollars / ton. On the 8th, the average price of ethylene was 941.50 US dollars / ton, down 0.11%. The current price is up 31.49% month on month, and the current price is 17.98% higher than last year. In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. On December 9, the price of ethylene market in Europe was 927-942 US dollars / ton in FD northwest Europe and 934-946 dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe, down by 1 dollar / ton. On December 9, in Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 965-975 dollars / ton, down 5 dollars / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted 895-905 dollars / ton, down 5 dollars / ton. In recent years, the Asian ethylene price mainly fluctuates slightly. On December 9, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 683-694 US dollars / ton, up 33 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is fair.

In terms of crude oil, on December 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.52/barrel, down $0.08. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.86/barrel, up $0.02. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

Demand may increase n-propanol short-term multi high firm operation

Near the end of the year, before the new year’s Day holiday, downstream stocks have been opened one after another, and the demand for n-propanol market may increase. Therefore, the n-propanol datagrapher of the business club believes that in the short term, the n-propanol market will mainly run at a high level.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the favorable support from the cost side, the market of ethyl acetate rose at a high level. As of December 9, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 7600 yuan / ton, up 11.23% compared with the beginning of the month and 15.02% higher than the same period of last month.

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate market continues to be strong. The prices of acetic acid and ethanol at the raw material end are running at a high level. The cost side support is favorable. The production enterprises push up the price of ethyl acetate. The overall purchasing of the downstream market is relatively flat, and the demand is mainly on demand. There is a certain resistance to the high price of ethyl acetate. At present, there are about 7900 yuan / ton in East China, 7650 yuan / ton in North China and 8100 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market continued to rise, reaching the highest price in the year. Some regions broke through the 5000 yuan / ton mark. The overall market supply tension continued, and the supply gap was difficult to make up in a short time. After the rain and snow, grain prices in Northeast China rose again, and the domestic corn market as a whole entered the stage of long space game, while the demand for liquor in the downstream was mainly from rigid demand. At present, ethanol in East China was about 6925 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate has been rising steadily. The port price in European market is about 1200-1400 euro / ton, and the port price in North America is about 780 US dollars / ton.

The ethyl acetate analysts of the business club believe that the high price of raw material acetic acid is the basis for supporting the stable operation of the ethyl acetate Market. In order to prevent the increase of future market storage pressure, the production enterprises are more stable in shipping, and the transaction in the downstream market is flat and mainly wait and see. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will run at a high level in a short period of time.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market rose steadily, and the ex factory prices of some aluminum fluoride enterprises increased slightly. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on December 4 was 9166 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.85 yuan compared with the beginning of the week.

The price trend of upstream fluorite market is stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2616.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply was slightly tight. The hydrofluoric acid on-site equipment was partially overhauled, and the hydrofluoric acid market price rose slightly. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-8800 yuan / ton.

The prices of fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and other raw materials in the upstream have increased steadily, and the prices of some aluminum fluoride manufacturers have slightly increased. However, at present, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high and the market supply is sufficient; the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Business agency chemical branch of aluminum fluoride industry analysts believe: upstream fluorite. The price of hydrofluoric acid has been rising steadily, but it has not been able to act continuously. Only a few manufacturers have raised the price of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be stable.