1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, this week, the price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene, falling continuously. On March 14, the price of pure benzene was 6400-6750 yuan / ton (average price: 6670 yuan / ton); on Sunday (March 21), the price of pure benzene was 6003-6650 yuan / ton (average price: 6450 yuan / ton), which was 3.3% lower than last week and 67.97% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, the main downstream styrene spot and futures prices of pure benzene fell sharply, the profit space was greatly compressed, and pure benzene followed the decline driven by bad news. Crude oil plummeted on Thursday, which was bad for domestic bulk commodity market. Pure benzene, as the downstream of crude oil, was greatly affected by crude oil, and the focus of spot market weakened. This week, pure benzene port inventory continued to fall, in the de inventory channel, inventory pressure is small, limiting its decline. This week, the price of some SINOPEC enterprises in North China was lowered to 6500 yuan / ton, while that in other regions was basically 6650 yuan / ton.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (March 19) was 761.33 US dollars / ton, down 83.67 US dollars / ton or 9.9% on March 12, and the reference price of import in East China was 800 US dollars / ton, down 69 US dollars / ton or 7.94% on March 12.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%.
Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene continued to decline, and profits were quickly compressed to near the theoretical cost. This week, the speed of styrene port going to the warehouse is accelerating, which has a certain support for the price. However, with the early maintenance devices being put into operation and the new production capacity being put into operation, the domestic supply is increasing. ABS in the downstream continued to fall, and the inventory pressure of some EPS factories was obvious, and the market was short of gas. On March 21, the price of sample enterprises was 8483.33 yuan / ton, down 7.29% compared with last week, and up 50.59% compared with the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline Market is in short supply, mainly in Shandong Province. On March 19, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 15.9% from last week and 139.55% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, a new wave of epidemic situation in Europe has led to the weakening of market demand for crude oil and increased worries, putting pressure on the trend of crude oil. However, the background of global economic recovery has not changed, and the overall direction of crude oil market is still upward.
Downstream: the profit margin of most downstream products is large, and most of the inventory is low, the spot buying is more active, and the demand for pure benzene is better supported. Styrene: the start-up load of styrene is expected to rise, the overhaul of Anqing Petrochemical plant is delayed, and the styrene plants in baling, Yuhuang and Keyuan are about to restart, so the demand for pure benzene is increasing. However, under the expectation of insufficient export support, increased supply and low demand, the short-term styrene market is still expected to be in the shock consolidation stage after rapid rise and fall.
At present, the downstream styrene market is the main reason restricting the trend of pure benzene. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene, and there will be a slight decline. However, due to the impending overhaul of several pure benzene units, the low inventory of Sinopec pure benzene and the high price support, the pure benzene market still has a rebound momentum. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
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