1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. The price of toluene was 5877.5 yuan / ton on March 14 and 5587.5 yuan / ton on March 21, down 290 yuan / ton or 4.93% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 600 / – 150 (yuan / ton). Weak downstream demand, coupled with a sharp drop in crude oil, the market mentality was short, and toluene fell in shock. Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. In terms of external market, the external market continued to fall this week. As of March 12, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $689 / T, down US $53 / T or 7.14% compared with March 12, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $709 / T, down US $51 / T or 6.71% compared with March 12.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fluctuated and fell this week, with the price of domestic goods at 17500 yuan / ton, down 8.7% from last week and up 58.61% from the same period last year. The domestic market is weak, the atmosphere of on-site trading is light, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, the demand is insufficient, the purchase is just needed, and the trading is general.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 21.82% over the same period last year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Under the pressure of multiple bad news, crude oil fell, toluene cost support weakened; downstream demand follow-up was weak, mainly rigid demand. The price of toluene is expected to fall in the short term. However, the toluene unit of Quanzhou Petrochemical Company operated at low load, the toluene units of Daxie Petrochemical Company and Huizhou Petrochemical Company were shut down, and the supply of cargo was tight, which supported the strong price of toluene. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.
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