Commodity index: on November 30, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 94.05, up 0.38 point compared with yesterday, 13.72% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 11.54% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, in November, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend. As one of the main monitoring specifications, polyaluminum chloride with a content of more than 28%, the lowest mainstream price was 1682.86 yuan / ton in the first ten days of this month, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 3.4%, which was the highest price of polyaluminum chloride since 2020. Among them, on the basis of the price increase of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder in the first two months and the price rise of fuel and natural gas used in production process, this month is superimposed with the influence factors of gradual shortage of supply due to the shutdown of manufacturers under the requirements of environmental protection policies in the heating season. The price of polyaluminum chloride continues to rise in the middle and late ten days, and the rise rate of some manufacturers in Henan Province is about 300 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the North China area reported 307 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, fluctuated for many times in the month, and received 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers reported that the price of hydrochloric acid in November continued to rise on the basis of September October’s rise. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. The price of calcium powder has not changed much this month.

Natural gas is used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. The price of natural gas rose sharply at the time of gold, silver and ten. The price of natural gas rebounded rapidly after the shock and fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the temperature has dropped sharply in recent days, the demand for urban fuel has increased, the supply in some areas is tight, the downstream replenishment sentiment has increased, the demand is getting better, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the manufacturers’ shipment situation has improved, and the confidence in bidding has been strengthened. In addition, the price of liquefied natural gas has been boosted by many advantages. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stronger in the short term, and the price will continue Continued to rise. Among them, the mainstream price of LNG was 2406.67 yuan / ton in early September and 3923.33 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 63% in March. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a big increase, the pressure will increase greatly, and the ex factory price of polyaluminum will inevitably rise.

Downstream demand: the heating season starts to meet strict inspection requirements, and the manufacturers stop production, resulting in tight supply of goods. This month is more than October, becoming the best month in 2020.

Industry: from September to the end of the year, the water treatment industry as a whole is in a good time. The market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side, the coming of the heating season and the shutdown and downstream demand caused by the pressure of environmental protection. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season. In fact, the market rose sharply this month, which is indeed the best time in 2020.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, on the basis of heating season, the continuous rise of raw material cost and the shortage of supply caused by shutdown have caused the price rise of polyaluminum chloride. As for the future market, we believe that the above factors will continue to support the future market, and polyaluminum chloride will still have sufficient upward momentum in December.

1、 Price trend

As of November 27, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was around 2650 yuan / ton, up 8.16% from the beginning of the week and 32.5% from the beginning of the month.

At present, the trichloromethane market in Shandong is stable and upward. Some enterprises’ negative pressure has led to a slight decline in market supply. The overall inventory pressure of the market is not big, and the enterprises have a good intention to push forward. The demand of downstream and traders has increased slightly, and the chloroform Market is running steadily. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Province is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, due to the weather in some parts of the methanol market, there is no quotation for the shutdown and overhaul of the units. The inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term; the liquid chlorine market will continue to remain high, and the market shipment will slow down, but the performance of downstream rigid demand will remain firm. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the current trend of refrigerant market is stable, raw materials are rising, and the demand of automobile industry entering the stock stage is improved, which has boosted the market. However, the demand is not large, and the export side is difficult to improve, showing a weak demand situation. In addition, the release of new production capacity, the inventory increases, and the game between supply and demand; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry starts smoothly, and supports chloroform generally.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the spot supply of chloroform in the domestic market has declined slightly, stimulating the demand of downstream and traders, and the overall purchasing has increased. The inventory pressure of chloroform enterprises is not big. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be stable in a short period of time. Pay attention to the change of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on November 26 was 44.15, which was 0.97 points lower than yesterday, 56.72% lower than 102.01 points (2014-01-09), and 47.22% higher than 29.99 points, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from November 23 to 27 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on 23rd, price on 27th, up and down every week

In East China, 4150-42504100-4200, – 50

In Shandong Province, 4000-41003750-3850, – 250

This week (November 23-27), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, with 4050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3800 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 250 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

November 4, 3750, + 150

November 10, 3850, + 100

November 12, 4000, + 150

November 16, 4200, + 200

November 24, 4000, – 200

November 26, 4200, + 200

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased five times and decreased once, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. As of the 30th, all refineries under Sinopec had implemented the unified implementation of 4200 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of hydrogenated benzene followed the trend of pure benzene, and the overall decline in Shandong was dominated. This week, the market price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil, and the price first fell and then rose. So far, the inventory of pure benzene was still high, maintained at about 250000 tons. Generally speaking, the operating rate of downstream was improved, mainly due to the increase of aniline operating rate. The mainstream negotiation price of pure benzene in Shandong was around 3950 yuan / ton, which was higher than that The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong area fell with the decrease of 300 yuan / ton.

 
Recently, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been stable at about 65%, which is on the rise as a whole. Some enterprises that shut down in the early stage started construction this month, especially in Northeast China.

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that at present, the price of pure benzene fluctuates frequently and the port inventory is still high. However, the crude oil market is still performing well, and the external price of pure benzene is still high, which has certain support for the market. Market participants are generally optimistic about the future market, and the future market focuses on the price trend of pure benzene downstream products and the external fluctuation of pure benzene.

On November 26, the average price of domestic silicon (441) market rose sharply, by 1.35%.

According to the data of business agency, on November 26, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13716.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.04% compared with the average market price of 13058.33 yuan / ton on Friday (11.20), 11.37% higher than the average market price of 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 10491.67 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of 7.1 in the year, an increase of 30.74% and 11833.33 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, The increase was 15.92%.

The price of 441 silicon in different regions on May 26 is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13100-13200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 13500-13700 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 14200-14400 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 13700-13900 yuan / ton 。

Recent positive factors

1. The silicon production in Yunnan has been reduced

On the news, Yunnan Dehong silicon plant started to reduce production orderly in the middle and early November due to power restriction factors. The reduction and shutdown of metal silicon factories in Yunnan increased, and the regional output reduction was expected to intensify.

2. Tight spot at trading end

At present, there are not many spot metal silicon stocks available for trading in the market, and the market is in a good situation. The stock holders are not worried about the situation. The willingness of some large manufacturers to raise prices is increased, which encourages the market to be bullish.

3. Strong downstream demand

The demand of downstream aluminum alloy plants is strong, and the price of silicone DMC is soaring, which directly leads to the raw material market. In the near future, the downstream reserve capacity has increased and the demand is strong.

Price of silicone DMC in soaring price

Price list of polysilicon in one of the three downstream markets:

4. The export volume of silicon metal increased in October

According to customs data, the export volume of silicon metal increased by 10.6% year-on-year in 2020.

Future forecast

The rise of downstream price is beneficial to the price of raw materials to a certain extent; combined with the recent tight spot situation, it is expected that the rising state of silicon metal price in the near future will probably continue.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 4100.00 yuan / ton on the 18th, and 4125.00 yuan / ton on the 25th. The current price rose by 0.61% month on month, and the current price fell by 5.17% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic market of potassium nitrate has increased slightly. Recently, the production of domestic potassium devices is relatively normal. Most downstream factories maintain on-demand procurement, and the inventory is in general. Recently, the price is on the rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotations are different.

On November 25, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the supply of potassium chloride is normal. Potassium chloride market high and stable, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In the near future, the price of domestic potassium chloride market is stable, and the production volume is not large. Some small factories have stopped production and the inventory is not high. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).