1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China rose this week, with the quotation falling from 307.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 310.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.81%. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid rose this week, and the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on November 13 was 81.58.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, this week hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer quotation falls, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 240 yuan / ton at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 220 yuan / T at weekend, which is 10 yuan higher than that at the beginning of the week /Tons.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market has a downward trend recently, and the market price of ammonium chloride is rising steadily, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. This week, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to rise slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is slightly improved. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has risen slightly in the near future.

Recently, there are many uncertain factors in the international crude oil market on the cost side, and the price fluctuates violently. However, from the perspective of styrene fundamentals, the spot market has strong support for the disk. In the near future, the spot market of styrene has increased greatly. In the later stage, the major styrene plants have maintenance expectations, and the downstream high-speed construction will continue. This will boost the price in the short term due to the reduction of styrene import caused by the maintenance of foreign refineries. However, it is still necessary to guard against the international macro risks. The profits in the early stage of the market have been gradually digested. In the medium and long term, the tight supply pattern will be eased More orders need to guard against the risk of callback.

1、 Analysis on spot market of styrene

Figure 1: spot market price of styrene (unit: yuan / ton)

Since the beginning of October, the spot price of styrene has increased significantly, and is currently maintained at 7400-7800 yuan / ton. In the past week, the average price of East China market was 7406 yuan / ton, last week’s average price was 6639 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 11.55%; the average price of South China market was 7900 yuan / ton, last week’s average price was 6895 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 14.58%; the average price of North China market was 7522 yuan / ton, last week’s average price was 6665 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 12.86%. From the international market point of view, the Asian styrene market as a whole shows a rising trend. On the one hand, due to the unexpected failure of some styrene plants in Rita, Korea, the production reduction or short-term shutdown, the market supply further reduced; on the other hand, China’s styrene inventory continued to decline. The European and American markets also showed a rising trend in prices. As the Asian market rose sharply, arbitrage drove the European market higher. At the same time, the United States expected to have a positive economic stimulus policy, and the styrene plant production reduction played a part of the supporting role.

Figure 2: Trend of inter term spread of styrene (unit: yuan / ton)

Figure 3: Trend of styrene basis difference (unit: yuan / ton)

In the near future, the future price of styrene continues to rise, and the basic demand is strong. As of November 09, the main eb2101 contract closed at 7391 yuan / ton, and the price difference between the main eb2101 contract and 2102 contract was 501 yuan / ton, which was stronger in recent months than in far months. In terms of basis, due to the fundamental support for the spot market, the spot price performance was strong. Under the effective support, the basis strengthened significantly from the middle of October, and the basis structure has changed from negative to positive. As of November 09, the basis of the main eb2101 contract against the mainstream price of the East China market was 164 yuan / ton, and that of the mainstream price of the South China market was 759 yuan / ton.

2、 Supply and demand analysis of Styrene Market

Figure 4: cost and profit of styrene (unit: yuan / ton)

Figure 4: styrene and downstream operation (unit:%)

In the near future, the increase of styrene is clearly stronger than that of raw materials, and the profit of styrene factory turns better. According to Longzhong statistics, as of November 06, the raw material of pure benzene was listed at 3750 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton compared with the end of October; ethylene price was 740 US dollars / ton, down 50 US dollars / ton compared with the end of October; the cost of non integrated unit was around 5445.8 yuan / ton, increased by 8.17 yuan / ton compared with the end of October; styrene price was 7670 yuan / ton, increased by 910 yuan / ton compared with the end of October, and the profit margin of non integrated device was It was around 2224.2 yuan / ton, 901.83 yuan / ton higher than the theoretical value at the end of October.

In terms of downstream demand, the three downstream still maintain high opening rate, and the high operating situation of PS industry is expected to continue for a longer time. Styrene just needs strong support, enterprise production and marketing profits are expanding, and the main downstream production and marketing profits are still considerable. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of November 06, the weekly output of domestic PS industry was 63100 tons, the operating rate was 84.69%, an increase of 0.56% over last week, and the profit margin was in the range of 1530-1715 yuan / ton. The total weekly output of ABS industry in China is 80600 tons, and the industry operating rate is 99%. The average gross profit of domestic ABS was 6161 yuan / ton, up 274 yuan / ton, or 4.7%. The weekly output of domestic EPS is about 90000 tons, the unit operating rate is about 75.87%, and the month on month decrease is 2.73%. Some factories are close to full capacity production.

Figure 6: domestic styrene plant inventory (unit: ton)

At present, the total inventory of domestic styrene plants decreased significantly. Recently, most factories in East China showed a decline in inventory, which was relatively low. In terms of social inventory, the total stock of styrene in the mainstream reservoir area of South China is 27500 tons, with a decrease of 5000 tons on a month on month basis; there are 15400 tons of commodities in the main reservoir area of South China, with a decrease of 12000 tons on a month on month basis. At present, the total stock of Jiangsu social inventory is 203800 tons, with a month on month decrease of 33500 tons; there are 184800 tons of goods in Jiangsu, with a month on month decrease of 32500 tons. On the whole, the inventory of styrene enterprises and social inventory all kept declining, and it is expected that the arrival of goods at terminals in the future market will decrease.

3、 Post market logic of styrene

There are still many uncertain factors in the international crude oil market on the cost side, and the fluctuation risk is high. However, at present, the strong performance of styrene fundamentals, improved supply and demand, tight supply of goods at the spot end, pushed up the spot market and supported the disk surface. At the same time, there were favorable incentives such as unexpected short-term stoppage of devices at home and abroad, as well as the decline of import and export volume. In the short term, styrene may maintain strong operation. In the long run, the import of styrene in late December is expected to pick up, and there is still a production capacity plan for domestic styrene in 2021, so the spot shortage pattern will be gradually eased. Relative high value of styrene and other relative risks need to be cautious.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 10, the comprehensive price of PC market was 19600.00 yuan / T, and the PC market fluctuated upward, and the price was increased in a wide range. The price of mainstream products increased by 600-1300 yuan / T, which was 14.62% higher than that of the same period last week and 28.38% higher than that of the same period of last month. The overall trend is upward, and the supply is clear Obviously tight, bullish atmosphere is strong, recent prices maintain upward, most manufacturers hold the mentality of reluctant to sell.

The price of domestic PC market continues to rise, the situation of tight goods is obvious, the transaction atmosphere is cautious, the price continues to be high, the price of PC raw materials goes up, the cost support is strong, the traders are in good mood, the shipment is smooth, and it is cautious to wait and see, the PC Inventory is low, and the price is likely to continue to rise. At present, the latest enterprise quotations are Luxi Chemical 19200 yuan / T, Lihua yiweiyuan 18100 yuan / T, Shanghai Kesi 2 1500 yuan / ton, the shipment is smooth, just need to take the order, the overall favorable factors still exist, the manufacturers have a strong mentality of rising, and will continue the situation of tight goods in the near future.

The upstream market price of bisphenol A continues to rise, the reference price is 14600-14800 yuan / T, the downstream demand is limited, the purchase is cautious, the actual order is discussed, and the price is strong. At present, the shipment is normal, the supply side is sufficient, and the inventory is not under pressure.

On November 10, the rubber and plastic index was 704 points, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.58% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 33.33% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency PC analysts believe: in the short term, the focus of PC market negotiations will further move up, continue to run at a high level. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market of hydrogen peroxide began to fall from the cliff in November after experiencing the golden September and silver October. The price continued to fall, falling continuously. From the highest price of 1450 yuan / ton in October, it has dropped by more than 200 yuan / ton. As of November 9, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped to 1283 yuan / ton, down 11.49% from the beginning of November.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to October in 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide in the first 10 months is still falling more or less, and the decrease in February and April is larger than 10%, and the decline in March, may and August is relatively small. Prices rose mainly in January and June, September and October, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June.

After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline by nearly 9% in July. The decline slowed down in August, with the price falling by about 2%. In September, hydrogen peroxide rose by 15%. In October, hydrogen peroxide rose more than 35%, more than 30% in June, ushering in the highest point in the first ten months.

On November 9, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 191.91, which was 14.41 points lower than yesterday, 12.42% lower than 219.12 points (October 27, 2020), and 113.59% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

In October, caprolactam inventory decreased and supply decreased. In addition to the rise of raw material pure benzene, the downstream demand for caprolactam increased, and the upstream and downstream support was strong, and the price of caprolactam rose. Since November, raw material pure benzene inventory consumption is slow, there is still pressure, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, enthusiasm is weakened. Some enterprises restart the plant, the supply of caprolactam increases, the market is weak, the enthusiasm for hydrogen peroxide purchasing decreases, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is suppressed.

On November 9, the specific price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 191.15, which was 12.92 points lower than yesterday, 22.30% lower than 246.00 points (October 21, 2019), and 77.75% higher than 107.54 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to the present)

In October, corrugated paper was driven by the stock market of 201, and the price of corrugated paper rose all the way, stimulating the market of hydrogen peroxide to go up. In November, the stock market of paper mills ended, the corrugated paper market continued to be stable, the price rise was weak, the demand for hydrogen peroxide purchasing became weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market dropped sharply.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business agency, believes that: the golden age of hydrogen peroxide has passed, the terminal demand has declined, the manufacturers have finished the maintenance, the supply has increased, the market has been falling continuously, and the driving force of the future market is still insufficient.

1、 Price trend

As of November 8, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.09% from the beginning of the week, 2.57% month on month, and 33.09% lower than the beginning of the week.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R134a market temporarily stable operation this week. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak, the price trend is low, the price of trichloroethylene is temporarily stable, and the supporting force of cost is acceptable. The terminal has not improved greatly, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, but the demand has not improved significantly. At the same time, the on-site supply is abundant, the starting load of the manufacturers is on the high side, the shipment is under pressure, and the price is reduced. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of hanging upside down, and the market is stable and weak. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 8, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in the refrigerant R134a market is about 15000-16000 yuan / ton The price is low.

In terms of raw materials, affected by negative factors in various aspects, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. In addition, the demand for downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the downstream refrigerant product price is not improved. The business community thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the cost support of refrigerant R134a is acceptable, the supply is sufficient, the demand continues to be soft, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. It is expected that the R134a market will be stable in the short term.