1、 Price trend
Business Club: maleic anhydride rose strongly after the festival, or more than 50%
According to the data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12750.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 53.00% from 8100.00 yuan / ton on February 1.
On February 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 120.11, up 9.42 points from yesterday, down 2.88% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 134.68% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
After the Spring Festival, the market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply. At present, the spot circulation is tight, the factory has no position pressure, and the large factories have entered the maintenance cycle, so the supply is tight. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hebei and South China was about 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton and 12500 yuan / ton respectively.
According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil. The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of maleic anhydride is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities due to the rise in the price of crude oil.
At present, after the Spring Festival, the downstream unsaturated resin has entered the stage of returning to work and production. The rising raw materials increase the pressure of resin cost and push up the resin market.
According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose sharply after the festival. As of February 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene Market in East China was 6500-6600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 6550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. The price of n-butane is high.
3、 Future forecast
Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe: at present, the maleic anhydride factory position is low, and has entered the maintenance stage, the supply and demand is tight, and the downstream resin has resumed production, it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will fluctuate upward in the short term.