According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8350 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.38%.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remains low. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak. The negative factors of hydrofluoric acid price maintaining low include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite remained low. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2622.22 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, so the price of fluorite remained low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The low price of fluorite in the market was a negative effect on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was low.

Second: the domestic refrigerant market is low this week. The sales market of the automobile industry is not good recently. The demand for the refrigerant is still weak. The market is hard to find. The trend of the refrigerant industry is general. The prices of various types of refrigerants continue to be low. Manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is increasing. The raw material hydrofluoric acid maintains a weak stability, the support force is general, and the refrigerant export volume is expected The output of downstream air conditioning is low, and the demand is scarce. The off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price reduction shipment is looking for good. On the whole, the refrigerant market is hard to find good factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is falling down. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center is low. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 12500-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market has increased, but the automobile market industry continues to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere is light. There are plenty of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity coming into the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price is depressed and the downstream demand is not improved. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid on-site devices operate stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7700-8500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Some manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, and most of them have serious losses and the stock market is not good.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. In addition, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the downstream refrigerant product price is not improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

On November 4, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.15/barrel, up $1.49 or 3.95%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.23/barrel, up $1.52 or 3.83%. US oil rose nearly 4% on Wednesday, mainly due to the rapid rise in oil prices and the sharp drop in US crude oil inventories after US President trump declared victory in the process of election results not yet produced.

Oil prices rose sharply in the session on Wednesday, mainly due to a public speech by the trump White House, who claimed that he had won the US presidential election, while there were still millions of votes to be counted and the final results were still not available. The market expected that Trump’s ruling policy would be favorable to oil prices, so it reacted quickly and prices rose sharply. It mainly takes into account Trump’s sanctions against Iran and his positive attitude towards the implementation of OPEC + production reduction.

In addition, the US commercial crude oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday also made a significant positive impact on oil prices. US crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, contrary to market expectations. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 7.998 million barrels to 48442.9 million barrels in the week of October 30, after the market had expected an increase of 890000 barrels. Meanwhile, the net import of crude oil increased by 560000 B / d. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.541 million barrels to 276.65 million barrels. The market had previously estimated a decrease of 871000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell 1.584 million barrels to 154644 million barrels, after a market forecast of 2 million barrels. Crude oil stocks fell sharply, mainly due to the reduction of production in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the hurricane. The decline in crude oil inventories and the rise in gasoline inventories are mainly related to the increase in processing capacity of refineries in the United States. According to EIA, the crude oil processing capacity of refineries increased by 164 thousand barrels / day last week, and the capacity utilization rate of refineries increased by 0.7 percentage points to 75.3%. On the whole, both the decline of crude oil inventory and the increase of refinery production in the United States on the premise of increasing net crude oil imports indicate that the economy is recovering slowly, bringing a certain boost effect to the market.

However, with the proliferation of new cases in Europe and the re implementation of blockade measures in some countries, such as France, the market may worry about the uncertainty of the future fuel demand outlook. Previously, the extension of OPEC + release and the advantages of the existing production reduction scale have been digested. In the medium and long term, all oil prices are still suppressed by the supply and demand side. In the short term, the US election is still pending, and Trump’s uncertainty may bring uncertainty to the oil market, which will increase the volatility of oil prices in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the continuous high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of November 4, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, up 15% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.05% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year, 50%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

In recent years, the domestic chloroform market continued to rise, mainly due to the rising price of raw material liquid chlorine. At present, the production cost of chloroform enterprises in Shandong is under pressure, and the overall demand of downstream market is flat, so the enterprises are forced to reduce the operating load, and the overall operation of the industry is less than 60%. As the inventory of enterprises is in the acceptable range, the intention of raising prices is good. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2300 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been adjusted in a volatile way, with the current price of about 1902 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers continue to increase the ex factory quotation. Driven by the current futures, the international crude oil price rebounds, the equipment maintenance of production enterprises, low inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand and other factors are favorable. The favorable factors will remain in a short time, and traders are full of bullish mentality. Recently, the liquid chlorine market continues to rise, and the supply in Shandong is tight due to the impact of enterprise maintenance The price of liquid chlorine is high and firm, and the surrounding market is following the trend. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1800-2000 yuan / ton.

In the downstream market, the market of refrigerants is running weakly and steadily, and the price is falling steadily. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers started low, the demand was scarce, the demand for foaming agent decreased, and the orders were not many, so the demand side was difficult to boost the market. The hydrofluoric acid industry in the raw material surface was stable, and there was no good signal. Although the quota decreased at the end of the year, the market was back to the buyer’s leading position, and the short-term market was still weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the domestic chloroform market is running stably for the time being. Enterprises are not starting high. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. In the future, we need to pay attention to the raw material market. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market was active in October, and most of the spot prices in the market showed a strong trend. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was 17.06% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in October, the whole month positive rise. In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China was 237300 tons at the end of October, down 2.14% on a weekly basis. The domestic operating rate was about 85.51%, maintaining a high level. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the styrene supply in other regions was moderate. In the next month, supply is still expected to be tight, the demand is high and stable, and the market mentality is strong. At the end of the month, crude oil fell sharply, and styrene cost support collapsed. Pure benzene inventory high, at the same time the demand decreases, the price rise lacks sufficient support. External news negative chemical industry chain, coupled with the Asian Styrene Market Trading atmosphere is weak, drag styrene up. However, on the whole, the arrival of imported goods in the later period is relatively small, the wharf continues to reduce the warehouse, the domestic supply is tightening, and the downstream keeps operating at high load, and the demand for styrene is strong. It is expected that styrene will be mainly concentrated in the near future.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, due to the sharp weakening of raw material propylene price in October, acrylonitrile market sentiment was hit. Far upstream of crude oil, Libya production and transportation recovery, supply has a large volume. In addition, the market was worried about the rebound of the epidemic situation, which inhibited the demand. The overall trend of international oil price in October was not good, and the cost side support of acrylonitrile was not ideal. However, the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remained at a high level after the festival, which had a certain basis for acrylonitrile consumption. On the supply side, it is reported that some acrylonitrile production lines have maintenance plans in October, which is good for spot prices. It is expected that acrylonitrile will be stronger in the near future, but the price increase will be limited.

In October, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the main manufacturers continued to raise their ex factory quotations, and the butadiene market quotation in some regions exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 31, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and the price reached a new high point in the year. Affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support, and the whole industrial chain will be favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.

In October, the domestic ABS market was strong and the spot price continued to rise. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is generally tight, and the pattern remains unchanged. It is reported that the arrival volume in South China is relatively large, which has a negative impact on the profit margin, but there is a large gap in terminal demand at present. Domestic major household appliance enterprises, automobile industry and other consumption remained high, aggravating the market supply tension. Although the lower reaches are resistant to high price goods, the demand side is stable and has the potential to extend the traditional peak season of “silver ten”.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market remained positive in October, prices of various brands continued to rise. On the cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials in October is generally strong, and the cost side has strong support for ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, the downstream demand is strong, and the trading is stable. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to be better in the near future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 2): 397.50 yuan / ton

On November 2, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on October 30. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 400 yuan / ton.