Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, the domestic caprolactam market weakened in early January, and the spot price gradually decreased. As of January 13, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises in business cooperatives was 10466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.85% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

At present, the domestic caprolactam market continues to accept the high callback market last month, and manufacturers continue to lower the ex factory price after new year’s day. On the supply side, caprolactam has been improved due to the restart of the early maintenance unit and the tight supply at present. At present, Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 10200 yuan / ton, cash factory, factory capacity 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 11900 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, about 80% of the unit operating rate. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11300 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of pure benzene in early January was affected by the higher interest rate of international crude oil, and the support of cost side was strengthened. In addition, the price of styrene in the lower reaches rebounded due to the wide rise of pure benzene in Asia, and the pure benzene in the first ten days of January rose in shock. In terms of external market, the demand for pure benzene in Europe and the United States increased, boosting the rise of pure benzene in Asia. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the global new epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery. It is expected that pure benzene will still rise in the near future.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that: at present, the upstream pure benzene market has risen, there is cost support for caprolactam. However, the current domestic caprolactam supply is relatively abundant, coupled with the previous tight supply, good spot prices, so caprolactam continued high callback market in early January. The downstream operating rate level is acceptable, the demand drops, the inventory rises, dragging the caprolactam market. Caprolactam market is expected to continue weak adjustment trend.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The market of industrial lithium hydroxide rose this week. As of January 8, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 53000 yuan / ton, up 0.63% compared with the beginning of the week and 1.92% compared with December 8, according to the data of business news agency’s block list.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide rose. Affected by the rise of lithium carbonate in the upstream, it boosted the lithium hydroxide Market. The demand in the downstream increased, accelerated the consumption of low price inventory in the market, and the market rose steadily. At present, the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; anhydrous lithium hydroxide is 130000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed separately.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate prices continue to rise in the near future. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: on January 8, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 56400 yuan / ton, up 12.80% compared with the beginning of the month. On January 8, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 60800 yuan / ton, up 11.36% compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 1st week of 2021 (1.4-1.8), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), ethylene (5.98%) and propane (5.47%). There were 32 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were acetone (- 13.28%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 10.78%) and isopropanol (- 8.47%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.34%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, the market atmosphere is acceptable due to the recent rise in upstream prices, strengthened cost support, and increased downstream demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

 
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic xylene market price showed an upward trend as a whole this week, while the price in some regions decreased significantly. The price of xylene was 3940 yuan / ton on January 3 and 3930 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 10), down 10 yuan / ton or 0.25% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene increased by 100-250 yuan / ton (the price in some regions decreased). In terms of external market, as of January 8, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 582 US dollars / ton, up 69.5 US dollars / ton or 13.56% compared with December 31; the price of imported xylene from East China was 590 US dollars / ton, up 61.5 US dollars / ton or 11.64% compared with December 31. During the week, the crude oil news was good, and the price rose rapidly. The external price of Asian xylene rose by more than 10%. The domestic xylene market was very bullish, but the downstream PTA, PX, ox and other demand was general, and the follow-up attitude was cautious. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 96100 tons, up 7400 tons from last week.

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price this week is more stable than last week, Sinopec’s listed price is about 4700 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 31.88%. The terminal demand is general, and PX is mainly purchased on demand. As of January 7, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $676-678 / T FOB Korea and US $694-696 / T CFR China. This week, PX external price trend rose, to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China showed an upward trend this week, up 278.89 yuan / ton, or 7.69%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%. Recent PTA downstream orders are OK, PTA enterprises have good production enthusiasm, and there is no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 7, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market, so PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 5000 yuan / ton. The import price of o-benzene in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is weakened. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Ox future market downward pressure is larger, rising momentum still exists.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil, external support is good, toluene is expected to rise next Tuesday. However, domestic downstream demand remained weak, mainly from rigid demand; xylene port inventory was high, which was difficult to consume in the short term, restraining the growth. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9933 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9833 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 1.01%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is on the decline. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The market turnover of activated carbon is general, the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complex, and the price can not be generalized. Please consult the manufacturer for details).

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: domestic EPS price is expected to be stable first and then weak in the short term.

2020 is the first year of Indonesia’s ban on mining. The focus of the market was originally on the changes brought about by the ban on mining, but a sudden epidemic broke the original operation logic of nickel. In the first quarter, the global economy was hit hard by the epidemic, and the commodity queue dived. Even with the “ban on mining”, nickel futures could not escape. Since the second quarter, the domestic epidemic situation has improved and the economy has continued to recover. At the same time, various countries have chosen to “release water” to stimulate the economy, and the market logic has turned to economic recovery and inflation expectations. Under this background, Shanghai nickel has staged a desperate counterattack with a number of commodities, with the highest price rising to a high level of more than a year. Throughout the year, Shanghai nickel first suppressed and then rose, with the lowest to 89950 yuan / ton and the highest to 134180 yuan / ton, with a range increase of 10.21%.

Key points of nickel market in 2020

Indonesia’s ban on Mining & new crown epidemic: annual import volume of nickel ore decreases and export of Philippine nickel ore delays

Indonesia began to ban the export of nickel ore in January 2020, and the Philippines became China’s main source of nickel ore import. As usual, a large number of nickel ore will be produced in the Philippines after the rainy season. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the country’s major miners basically stopped production in March and April, and began to resume operation until May, which forced the postponement of nickel ore production. Therefore, the import volume of domestic nickel ore in the second quarter of this year was far lower than that in the same period of previous years, and the import volume of single month in April, may and June was at a historical low in the same period. In the second quarter, China is in the period of full resumption of work and production, the demand for nickel ore is increasing, and the Philippines’ delayed ore drawing aggravates the domestic shortage of ore end. At the same time, with the help of downstream consumption, nickel prices get rid of the weak situation. After that, the law of nickel ore production in the Philippines is basically consistent with that in previous years. With the advent of the rainy season in the fourth quarter, the import volume of nickel ore in China drops sharply.

Ups and downs of stainless steel demand

As the largest buyer in the downstream of nickel market, the production and consumption of stainless steel play an important role, especially in 2020, due to the occurrence of the new crown epidemic, “demand side” really takes away the “supply side” of the limelight, and becomes the main factor leading the nickel market in Shanghai. In the first half of the epidemic, the global economy was hit and the consumption of stainless steel was dragged down. The inventory of stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi continued to rise. In the first quarter, the total inventory of stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi increased from 400000 tons to nearly 600000 tons, and the price of stainless steel dropped to the bottom. Steel enterprises reduced production and went to the warehouse one after another. At this time, the nickel price fell into a quagmire, breaking the 90000 mark, reaching an annual low.

In the second half of the epidemic, China took the lead in resuming work and production. At the same time, economic stimulus policies were constantly introduced to boost the market demand expectation. The spot market of stainless steel was hot. The inventory continued to be reduced from nearly 600000 tons, and the steel price soared. The steel mills that reduced production in the early stage switched their direction and started production. The demand for refined nickel increased significantly. According to the 32 domestic steel mills announced by our steel website Monthly stainless steel production data shows that since March, domestic stainless steel production has increased for six consecutive months.

When it comes to “golden nine and silver ten”, the demand expectation of stainless steel in the peak season fails, but the low inventory still supports its price. Driven by profit, the steel plant still maintains high production scheduling, but the output has not been further improved. Therefore, from the beginning of September to the end of November, the production and demand of stainless steel step into the contraction trend at the same time, and the nickel market has a fierce long short game, with the expectation price between 110000 and 110000 20, 000.

In December, the consumption of downstream steel demand performed well. At the same time, the output of stainless steel in some areas was affected by the policy of environmental protection power restriction. The inventory of stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi declined significantly. The spot market of stainless steel reappeared the “rush for goods”. Under the tight supply of spot market, the price of steel continued to rise slightly, which boosted the future price of stainless steel and increased the market demand for nickel for stainless steel As a result, nickel prices were strongly supported.

New energy consumption performed well in the fourth quarter

With the air pollution becoming more and more serious, people pay more attention to environmental protection, and the trend of electric vehicles has become irreversible. Governments around the world are also introducing policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles. In the second half of 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will gradually rise. According to the data of China Automobile Association, since July, the domestic production of new energy vehicles has been climbing, which is far higher than that of the same period last year. In November, the production of new energy vehicles in a single month exceeded 200000, doubling year-on-year.

This result was transmitted to the nickel market, mainly reflected in nickel sulfate and nickel beans. With the steady increase of the demand for ternary batteries, the production growth of ternary precursors supports the consumption of nickel sulfate. Most domestic nickel sulfate enterprises are in the state of full production, and the demand for nickel beans in the market increases greatly, and the supply of nickel beans gradually exceeds the demand. At the beginning of November, domestic spot nickel beans changed from discount to premium, and then the premium of nickel beans to Shanghai nickel beans expanded rapidly. In late November, the premium of nickel beans broke through the 1000 yuan mark, and then the premium of nickel beans remained high and volatile.

Looking forward to 2021

From the current point of view, Indonesia will continue to ban mining this year, so the nickel supply will remain tight, and the supply side variable is still ferronickel. Last year, China’s import of ferronickel was significantly higher than that of previous years, mainly due to the increased inflow of ferronickel from Indonesia into China. In 2021, the ferronickel project in Indonesia will continue to be put into operation, and the domestic ferronickel supply will continue to be impacted by Indonesia’s ferronickel in the future 。 On the demand side, the global economy continues to recover, and the market has a stable growth expectation for stainless steel consumption, but more hopes are placed on the increment of new energy industry chain. Although the subsidy standard for new energy vehicle purchase in 2021 will decline by 20% on the basis of 2020, there is still a huge space in this market. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to reach 40%, and the total sales will rise To 1.8 million. Therefore, the return of ferronickel in Indonesia, the production and demand of stainless steel and the performance of new energy consumption will be the focus of nickel market in 2021.