Since 2020, the environmental protection water treatment industry has experienced a difficult year. In the first quarter, the epidemic stopped work, in the second quarter, work resumed gradually, and in the third quarter, the market was light. After crossing the golden nine silver ten, in the fourth quarter, the price rose slightly, and the production has been suspended due to environmental protection requirements. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency (100ppi), the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) was 15950 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, and 14500 yuan / ton on December 29, with an annual drop of 9.09%; the 15950 yuan / ton on January 1 was also the highest price of this year, and the lowest price appeared on July 31, only 13566.67%, with the biggest annual vibration 94%.

The monthly market of Polyacrylamide in 2020 is as follows:

During the Spring Festival and related holidays in the main production area, production will be delayed to January 20. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, the logistics returned to normal and mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and some of the raw material costs were reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in higher inventory. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP meltblown cloth mask” industrial chain, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile first dropped sharply, while the cost of polyacrylamide dropped. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products, and rebounded continuously in the second half of the month, but there was no obvious change in the manufacturer’s price. In fact, most manufacturers hoard raw materials, and the cost at the time of purchase determines the price. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. After a slight shock in September, it remained stable, the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. The prosperity of the industry improved in October, but the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuel. Although the raw material price of polyacrylamide also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not increase as obviously as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, facing the heating season, the environmental protection requirements are strict. Affected by this, the polyacrylamide manufacturers almost stop production at this time of the year, and the acrylonitrile rises sharply in that month. The downstream demand is weak, the upstream cost is high, the polyacrylamide manufacturers are under great pressure, and the price increases frequently, but the increase rate is not very large. Polyacrylamide manufacturers stop production in December, the main raw material supply will be affected by the shortage of water, that is, the demand for raw materials will be reduced rapidly in December.

To sum up, the water treatment industry will be more difficult in 2020. Manufacturers believe that this year is worse than in previous years. With regard to the future market, the current macroeconomic environment is relatively complex, the domestic economy is good, but the international situation is grim. Under such conditions, the demand side is affected by many factors. Generally speaking, the possibility of significant changes in the price of acrylonitrile in the near future is not great, and the demand of downstream users of water treatment will weaken after the completion of goods preparation a year ago. Whether the manufacturers in the main production areas can resume production depends on the specific requirements of environmental protection. At present, there are many uncertain factors. If they continue to stop production, some prices will rise slightly, but the overall strength is not big, and the overall market is mainly stable.

1、 Price data:

According to the commodity data monitoring of the business community, in 2020, the domestic bromine market declined steadily in the first half of the year, and continued to rise in the second half of the year. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic bromine was about 30666 yuan / ton, and rose to about 33333 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an increase of 8.7%; the lowest price of the year appeared in the middle of July, 26277 yuan / ton, and the highest price was 33333 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an overall amplitude of 26.82%. According to statistics, as of November 2020, the domestic bromine market has imported about 48000 tons of bromine, a decrease of about 13% compared with the same period last year, and the accumulated import amount is more than 170 million US dollars.

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the end of May, the domestic bromine market as a whole declined steadily. The average price at the beginning of the year was about 30666 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of May was about 29777 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 2.9%. The bromine market as a whole was weak and stable, the recovery of enterprises was slow, and the spot supply in the market was tight, Therefore, the price of bromine did not fluctuate greatly, and the market as a whole was still weak in supply and demand.

In the second stage, from the beginning of June to the middle of July, the domestic bromine market fell sharply, with an average price of about 29111 yuan / ton in early June and 26277 yuan / ton in the middle of July, with an overall decline of 9.73%. Affected by the rising gas temperature, the start-up of domestic bromine enterprises gradually recovered, and the overall trend of oversupply of bromine market became more obvious. The start-up of seawater bromine enterprises in North China was stable, while that in Shandong was stable The overall spot supply of the market is stable, and the downstream flame retardant market is recovering. However, most manufacturers are mainly consuming inventory, and the overall operating rate has not been significantly improved. Bromine enterprises are forced to bid for shipment, and bromine prices continue to decline.

In the third stage, from July to the end of the year, the average price of domestic bromine was about 26277 yuan / ton at the end of July, and rose to about 33333 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an overall increase of 26.85%, the biggest increase in three years. Affected by the rain weather, the domestic bromine market output was lower than expected after July. In addition, the downstream flame retardant market production entered the peak season, and the industry as a whole showed a situation of short supply. In addition, Shandong began to levy resource tax, and the bromine price continued to rise. After the National Day holiday, with the effective solution of the domestic epidemic, the downstream terminal purchasing was active, and the demand side support was good At the end of this year, as the weather turned colder and the market supply was expected to decline, the market demand for flame retardants was also weak. The trade volume in the industry was light and the rise slowed down.

In the upstream market, the rise and fall of sulfuric acid, sulfur and caustic soda markets have little impact on the overall price of bromine. The sulfuric acid market fluctuated and adjusted, showing a “few” shape trend as a whole, with the lowest price of 285 yuan / ton and the highest price of 434 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 52.44%; the sulfur market fluctuated upward, with an increase of 99.17%, the lowest price of 270 yuan / ton and the highest price of 1002 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 113.29%; the caustic soda market fluctuated downward, with an overall decline of 23%, and the highest price of 632 yuan / ton, with the lowest price The price is 450 yuan / ton, and the amplitude is 28.8%.

According to the bromine analyst of business society, the domestic bromine price in 2020 will be in the middle of the past five years, and the overall market trend will be roughly the same. Due to the periodicity of domestic bromine production, the supply and demand of bromine in the first quarter of 2020 was not affected by international health events, and there was no big fluctuation compared with the past. With the recovery of domestic market, the trend of domestic bromine price in 2020 showed a steady decline in the first half of the year as a whole, and continued to rise after summer In comparison, the overall performance is similar. It is expected that the domestic bromine market will remain high and firm in a short time. We need to pay attention to the policy adjustment in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15500 yuan / ton last Friday and 15650 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 0.97% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, market demand is good, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. So far, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 15800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 15600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 15500 yuan / ton. In January, some enterprises in Yunnan plan to stop production for maintenance, the supply will be reduced, and the price of yellow phosphorus is expected to rise in the future.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas is 396.67 yuan / ton. Phosphorus ore market as a whole is weak and stable, downstream demand is weak, new single purchase is not much, support for phosphorus ore is limited, and most of the phosphorus ore industry used to stabilize the price a year ago. In the near future, the market adjustment of phosphorus ore is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be reduced, and the overall stability maintenance operation is the main.

In terms of coke, according to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the reference average price of domestic coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2167.5 yuan / ton so far. The price of coke is temporarily stable, the market is stable and relatively strong, the supply of coke market is continuously tight, and the coke inventory in all links is mainly low. The market price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2300 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day and 50 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month.

In terms of demand, according to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the reference average price of domestic phosphoric acid is 4983.33 yuan / ton so far. This week, the phosphoric acid market is relatively calm, the downstream inquiry heat is reduced, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the actual transaction is mainly based on negotiation. Phosphate Market as a whole runs smoothly, all enterprises maintain the production level in the early stage, and the market sales are tepid.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. In January, some enterprises in Yunnan plan to stop production for maintenance, so the supply will decrease. At present, in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus is still adjusted above.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price (December 23): 566.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on December 23, ammonium sulfate market fluctuated in a narrow range, slightly downward. The main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 530-570 yuan / T. The main price of powdered ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is about 600 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province is about 400-575 yuan / ton, slightly down. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hunan Province is about 700 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable. The internal price is mainly consolidated, and the price has no obvious fluctuation. Ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of ammonium sulfate is general, manufacturers’ inventory is low, port inventory is not high. However, the downstream demand is general, and the new orders are limited. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be stable in the short term.

Last week (12.14-18), the price of domestic polycrystalline silicon stopped falling slightly, and the market gradually stabilized. The domestic market and imported material prices did not change much compared with the beginning of December. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polysilicon rose or fell by 0% last week. The main reason is that although the operating rate of enterprises has increased and the supply remains stable, the market demand is slightly enlarged by the impact of centralized procurement before the festival.

In December, especially in the first ten days, the domestic polysilicon market continued the previous trend, and the price still fell, but since the middle of the year, the market gradually stopped falling. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained about one maintenance or load reduction start-up. It is expected that they will resume production in the near future. The supply volume is still increasing compared with the previous period. Most enterprises’ inventory has no obvious upward trend and is still controllable. This is mainly due to the recent increase of downstream manufacturers In the process of rapid digestion, the purchase volume of silicon wafer manufacturers increased significantly compared with that in November, and the situation of enterprises signing orders continued. Most enterprises signed orders in December, and a few large factories began to sign new orders in January next year. This mainly depends on the stability just needed at present. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon is 53000-55000 yuan / ton, and the non China price of polysilicon is 64000-66000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the supply of polycrystalline silicon is relatively abundant, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to reach a new high in the near future. However, affected by the downstream silicon wafer procurement increment, polysilicon may maintain the pattern of both supply and demand. Polycrystalline silicon is expected to be better, and the price is expected to recover.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive