1、 Price trend

As of September 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14833.33 yuan / ton, up and down 10.64% month on month and 2.2% compared with the same period last year,

As of September 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15566.67 yuan / ton, up 2.19% from last Tuesday, down 5.66% month on month and 38.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In recent days, the raw material trichloroethylene has been rising violently. The price of R134a continues to rise, while R22 remains stable and waits for the market. In September, R134 rose by 1.11% in the first week, then continued to rise, rising by 3.32% in half a month, with the center of gravity moving up. R22 due to the early pull up too fast, the demand follow-up is not enough, the uplink is blocked, after the callback, it remains stable and wait-and-see market. And other refrigerant models are still the main behavior, the market is not optimistic. At present, the demand side continues to be weak, the air conditioning market demand is less than expected, the orders are scarce, the export market has not improved significantly, the car market industry is still light, the demand side has no positive stimulation, the enterprise shipping pressure is increasing, the business attitude is slightly pessimistic, the market as a whole is still weak.

R134a, the raw material of trichloroethylene, has risen sharply recently, bringing vitality to the sluggish market. The market of refrigerant R134a has been rising rapidly, and has been actively adjusted to rise by more than 3% in half a month. However, the support of demand side is insufficient, the demand of downstream car factories is less, and the export is also poor. The ability to take delivery of R134a, which suddenly rises sharply, is insufficient, and the enterprises are in general in shipment. At the same time, there is abundant supply in the market, and there are plans for new production capacity to enter the market. The contradiction between supply and demand may deepen. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the future market situation is still not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of September 15, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R134a market are about 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and the market transaction price is about 14500-15000 yuan / ton, and the transaction center has moved up.

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 has been temporarily stable recently. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and chloroform have declined to varying degrees. The support force on the cost side is weakened. The performance of air conditioning and after-sales market on the demand side is poor. Generally, March to June is the peak season for air-conditioning production, and april-7 is the peak season for maintenance market. After the peak season, the demand decreases sharply. At the same time, affected by the new energy efficiency, the demand side is even worse. The atmosphere of market transaction is light, and the pressure on manufacturers to ship goods is increased, It fell more than 6% in September and half. As of September 15, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market were 14000-16500 yuan / ton, and the market transaction price was about 13500-14500 yuan / ton, which showed a steady decline.

The price trend of fluorite in the upstream and domestic fluorite market fluctuated. Recently, some manufacturers reported that the goods were not in good condition, the downstream demand was not improved, and the fluorite price changed little. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. As of the 15th, the mainstream of fluorite negotiation in China was RMB 2550-2900 per ton

For hydrofluoric acid, on September 15, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / T, and the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers dropped slightly. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of goods on site was normal. Affected by the decline of fluorite price, however, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good, and the on-site purchase was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price would be reduced in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the current R134a market is picking up and the price is going up, but the raw material side tends to stabilize after rising, and the superimposed demand is not good, so it is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term; R22 demand is sluggish, and manufacturers’ shipment is not so good, and there is still a risk of falling in the future market.

It rose 12.82% in half a month to its highest level in five months

After half a year, the DME market finally met the expectations and successfully reversed. The rising market lasted for half a month. The current price has risen to the highest point in five months. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on September 1 was 2210.00 yuan / ton, and on September 14 it was 2493.33 yuan / ton, up 12.82% in half a month and 5.35% higher than that on August 1.

The first week of September pushed up slightly, and the second week pulled up sharply, successfully overturning the market

Although there was no obvious increase in the market in September, there was no obvious increase in market demand in September. It wasn’t until the beginning of the second week that there was a big pull. Before that, due to the influence of seasonal factors, terminal demand was slow, and dimethyl ether had been in a fluctuating downward trend. The rise can be described as a successful reversal. The reasons for the rise come from two points. First, as the off-season in August has passed, September has entered the traditional sales peak season. With the gradual decrease of weather and temperature, the terminal demand is expected to improve, and the news is good for the market mentality. The second is also the main reason, which is that the upstream methanol rose sharply in September. The sharp rise in costs has brought obvious support to the market. Under this pressure, most manufacturers have a strong mentality and take advantage of the situation to push up prices. Downstream buy up not buy down the mentality of entering the market is more positive, market trading atmosphere is good, manufacturers shipping smoothly.

As of September 14, the factory prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Regional specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0%, 2490 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0%, 2470 yuan / ton on September 14

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% September 14 2430-2555 yuan / ton

Taking Henan xinlianxin, the main production area, as an example, the ex factory price of dimethyl ether was 2220 yuan / ton on September 1, increased by 20 yuan / ton every day from September 4 to 7, and the quotation was 2300 yuan / ton on September 7, with an increase of 80 yuan / ton in the first week. The second week continued to raise the ex factory price. On September 14, the price was 2490 yuan / ton, which was 270 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. Hebei region and Shandong region were also affected by this positive, followed by the rise, September 9, Hebei Jichun device maintenance, market supply decreased.

Cost methanol market went up sharply in September, which brought obvious support to dimethyl ether Market

In the first week of September, the domestic methanol market showed an obvious upward trend, and some manufacturers raised the ex factory quotation several times in the week, with the range of 50-80 yuan / ton. During the week, the external quotation of methanol rose sharply, with the closing price of methanol in the US Gulf rising by 5 cents / gallon to 74.75-75.25 cents / gallon; the closing price of methanol in Rotterdam on FOB was 199.5-200.5 euro / ton, up 9 euro / ton; the closing price of CFR China methanol was 179-181 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton; the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol was 239-241 US dollars / ton, stable. The quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, among which Shandong and Shanxi regions have obvious upward trend. The main factors of this week’s price rise are the positive futures driven, as well as the favorable impact of the recovery of downstream demand.

In the second week of September, the domestic methanol market continued to rise, with a slowdown compared with last week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1725 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 1805 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 4.64% during the week, an increase of 11.25% on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 13.97% year-on-year. At the beginning of the week, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions also went up to varying degrees, among which the rise in Shandong and Shanxi was obvious. At the end of the week, with the crude oil plummeting, the chemical products prices generally fell, and the high quotation of methanol market dropped. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the enterprise shipment was fair, and the manufacturer’s offer was firm. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

In the future, DME market is easy to rise but difficult to fall

Although the cost has risen, the liquefied gas, which has the same impact on the market, has declined in a weak way. The traditional peak sales season has arrived, but the terminal demand is not obvious, the consumption is still slow, and the sharp drop of international crude oil depresses the market mentality. Although CP rose in September, its positive effect is limited. The downstream needs to supplement, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see. Manufacturers shipment is not smooth, inventory is increasing, successive price reduction, shipment based. At present, the cost market is still strong, but the continuous decline of liquefied gas for civil use has some restraint on dimethyl ether. At present, the slow increase of demand in the terminal market is still the main difficulty for the rise. In the future, the dimethyl ether Market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. However, the trend of civil gas needs to be paid attention to when the specific increase range changes.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of September, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1260 yuan / ton. On September 14, the average market price of petroleum coke was 1367.7 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.55% and a year-on-year increase of 9.75%. On September 13, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 103.66, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.38% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), and 54.97% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Local refining petroleum coke market atmosphere is more active, prices have been rising, the main reason is the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and upward, medium and high sulfur coke resources are relatively limited, and the market price is rising. Some refineries have reduced production, aluminum enterprises have considerable profits, supporting the price rise of medium and high sulfur coke.

Upstream: the short-term selling pressure of oil price is aggravated by many negative effects of the market. In the near future, the price may remain low, and it is not ruled out that the price will continue to fall. In the medium and long term, the impact of the epidemic may last for a long time. The recovery prospects of major economies will be hit, and the fuel demand may fall into a downturn for a long time. On the contrary, due to the decline of OPEC + production scale, crude oil will continue to decline Supply pressure will continue to increase, and crude oil may enter the game of supply and demand rebalancing in the future.

Downstream: in recent years, the general trend of glass spot market is general, the delivery speed of production enterprises has little change, the market transaction is stable, and the market sentiment is slightly loose. Generally speaking, in the process of traditional consumption peak season, the demand of terminal market presents rigid characteristics. At present, domestic real estate construction decoration orders are mainly increased, while export orders are limited. The acceptance of glass spot price by downstream real estate enterprises has increased by a certain extent compared with last month. At the same time, traders’ social inventory has also been reduced to a certain extent recently, and the purchase of original glass pieces has returned to the normal level and speed. In recent years, due to the rising price of petroleum coke, the profit margin of downstream carbon has shrunk, or it mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 36th week of 2020 (9.7-9.11), including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are dimethyl ether (6.02%), methanol (4.64%) and steam coal (2.92%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were WTI crude oil (- 6.21%), Brent crude oil (- 6.09%), asphalt (- 4.39%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

Oil coke market was affected by tight supply of petroleum coke resources. Delaying the operating rate of petroleum coke or maintaining a low level will be good for the formation of petroleum coke, but the decline of crude oil will be detrimental to the gasoline and diesel market, which may restrict the formation of petroleum coke. But overall, the petroleum coke market is still in a good situation in the short term, and the specific demand of downstream market.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stronger in the first ten days of September, with all models of products rising to a certain extent. As of Friday, September 11, the average price quoted by PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 20050.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.43% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market was stagnant in August, and the price fluctuation was not large, and the prices in some regions were slightly lower. In the first ten days of September, the domestic inventory pressure has slightly eased. According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of Friday, September 11, the international adipic acid price has recovered, with an average price of 6660.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.52% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. However, the market demand performance is still relatively flat, the market supply pressure is afraid to continue, most dealers follow the market, the transaction atmosphere is still at a weak level, market people are cautious, dealers light inventory operation. The price of pure benzene is relatively flat in the near future, and its support to the downstream adipic acid is general. Crude oil’s periodic weakness added to the uncertainty of pure benzene market, adipic acid is expected to maintain the finishing market in the short term.

The upstream adipic acid generally supported the cost of PA66, and the domestic spot price of PA66 continued to rise in the first ten days of September. Recently, the domestic PA66 operating rate has not changed much, and the supply of goods in the market is still slightly insufficient at this stage. It’s the traditional peak season, and the domestic automobile industry is warming up, and PA66 consumption has a trend of expansion. But from the actual transaction point of view, the market atmosphere is difficult to say strong. Orders are generally slow to follow up, which may be related to the early preparation. It is expected that the “golden nine silver ten” will still be popular when the downstream manufacturers consume inventory. At present, the low load operation of PA66 production enterprises has stabilized the price weakness caused by loose supply for nearly two years. BASF, a major international manufacturer, announced to increase the price of PA66 industrial chain products in the Asia Pacific region and enhance market confidence. Business shipment situation is fair, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe: early September domestic PA66 market trend is strong. The spot price of adipic acid in upstream slightly recovered, which supported the cost of PA66. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement just need to operate, order follow-up is slow. At present, there is less on-site supply and it is time for the traditional peak season. There is still room for improvement in the purchase and consumption of PA66. It is expected that the market situation of PA66 will be stronger in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5716.67 yuan / ton. Compared with August 15, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.58%; compared with August 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.64%. From August 1 to August 31, the maximum amplitude was 4.24%.

In the first ten days of September, n-butanol kept rising

Since the beginning of September, the domestic n-butanol market has been steadily rising. The high price of propylene is supporting the high cost of propylene. Starting from January 1, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol was positive, the market turnover improved significantly, and the transaction focus continued to move up. At present, as of the 8th, the market price of n-butanol continues to rise, the market price is concentrated in the high-end, downstream butyl ester users maintain just in need replenishment, spot procurement is more cautious than at the beginning of the month, the core demand performance is stable, and the primary market shipment is relatively smooth. At present, the cost of n-butanol is under great pressure, and most of the factories offer high prices. At present, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 5900 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton higher than September 1; Luxi Chemical n-butanol factory quotation reference 5800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September.

The market price of n-butanol in some parts of China is attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Product Name: up / down on 9 / 1 / 9 / 8

N-butanol in East China 5800 6000 + 200

South China 6100 6300 + 200

North China 5800 5900 + 100

Northeast China 5600 5750 + 150

On the upstream side, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range has become more and more large. Up to the 4th, the total price of propylene has risen by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction volume in the market is between 7180 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. As of the 8th, most of the current production enterprises have no pressure on inventory, and offer is mainly stable.

On crude oil, WTI closed for the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday (September 7), while Brent 11 contract fell $0.65/barrel at 42.01. China’s main SC crude oil futures fell 6.3 yuan / barrel to 278.6 yuan / barrel in 2010.

After the price reduction of operating rate eases the pressure of competition, the market is mainly stable

At present, the downstream demand of domestic n-butanol market is slightly weaker than that at the beginning of the month. However, it is heard that some units in Shandong will be shut down in the near future, and the short-term market competition may be reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the high-level and stable operation of n-butanol Market in recent days will be the main trend, and more attention should be paid to the supply and demand of raw materials.