The domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1657 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 1652 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.30% during the week. The price was 2.64% higher than that of the same period last month, and the price was 21.53% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, due to the centralized maintenance of domestic units, the low start-up load of enterprises, and the continuous unexpected shutdown of overseas units, the domestic methanol market price continued to rise; in the later part of the week, with the port inventory accumulating again, there was no hope of alleviating the high inventory problem, and the market’s pursuit of rising mentality fell back, and the overall purchasing gas was insufficient. In terms of demand, the traditional downstream gradually recovered, but it was still lower than the same period last year. Under the profit driven, the overall olefin operating level was at a high level, and there was no room for further growth. In addition, the inventory of some downstream enterprises was relatively high, limiting the growth of methanol demand.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market was in a horizontal order. At the beginning of the week, the strong upward trend of raw material surface was obvious, and gradually turned weak in the middle of the week. Domestic downstream terminals are mostly affected by rain and high temperature, and the start-up continues to tighten, so the demand for formaldehyde is correspondingly weakened, and most of them are rigid demand. In this context, formaldehyde production enterprises are under pressure, and formaldehyde factories basically rely on fixed terminal demand to maintain shipment. Next week, the formaldehyde industry in Shandong ushered in the national environmental protection supervision, and the wood industry was affected by this, and the start of work will be further weakened, so the demand for formaldehyde is not optimistic.

Acetic acid: this week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise after the end of the trend of stable operation. The early maintenance manufacturers resumed normal operation, and the market supply gradually increased. Although the northwest manufacturers failed during the weekend, the market supply still showed a significant increase trend under the normal operation of the mainstream manufacturers in East China, which eased the tight supply situation in the acetic acid Market and passively stabilized the supplier’s offer price. The production enterprises mainly deliver orders in the early stage. At present, the inventory quantity is low, and the offer is strong. However, the traders have sufficient stock in the early stage. In the face of the bearish sentiment in the later stage, they actively offer to seek a deal. The self raised price negotiation in the East China market is slightly preferential.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic dimethyl ether price has increased steadily this week, and the transaction situation has improved appropriately. Due to the low price of dimethyl ether in the early stage, most enterprises are in a loss situation, which leads to some enterprises to carry out maintenance. The price of mainstream enterprises in Henan Province increased by about 110 yuan / ton this week, and some enterprises limited their sales. The situation of price rise gradually spread to the surrounding provinces and cities.

In the later stage, port inventory will accumulate again, and high inventory will continue to suppress methanol price; in the early stage, some maintenance devices have been resumed and restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the downstream market is weak to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere turns weak. Methanol analysts of business community predict that the domestic methanol market is likely to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market has been running steadily. As of July 14, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with July 1, and decreased by 4.09% compared with April 14. At present, the demand for industrial grade lithium hydroxide is stable, and the spot transaction of battery grade lithium hydroxide is general, and the price is mainly stable.

According to customs statistics, from January to may 2020, China’s cumulative import volume of lithium hydroxide is 219.92 tons, the cumulative import amount is about 1.25 million US dollars, and the cumulative average import price is 5681.51 dollars / ton; from January to may 2020, China’s cumulative total export volume of lithium hydroxide is 21229.99 tons, the accumulated export amount is about 236.79 million dollars, and the cumulative average export price is 11153.42 dollars / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate prices in recent years have been mixed, the market continued to wait and see. As of July 13, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39300 yuan / ton, which was 0.35% lower than that on July 1 and 1.5% lower than that on June 13; on July 13, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44700 yuan / ton, up 1.13% compared with July 1 and 0.9% higher than that on June 13. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35500-45000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40500-48000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate still has a high correlation, so the industry needs a certain time to digest the inventory. It is expected that the market price of lithium carbonate will continue to wait and see in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that in the near future, the market of lithium carbonate is in a wait-and-see manner, with acceptable cost support and relatively stable demand. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market stabilized in the first ten days of July, and the spot price of the market was slightly adjusted. As of July 10, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was in line with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In terms of styrene upstream of ABS, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the average offer of sample enterprises was 5400 yuan / ton on Friday, July 10, and the price was basically unchanged at the level at the beginning of the month, down 39.78% compared with the same period last year. It is reported that the total inventory in East China has decreased by 3.25% to 370200 tons. But inventories are still high. In the short term, the oversupply has not changed. In terms of domestic styrene, styrene was restarted and increased in July, some enterprises’ inventory increased slightly, and the overall output was basically the same as last week. At the beginning of the month, the average operating rate of styrene in China was 82.2%, which was 81.99, down 0.21%. At present, the spot sales pressure of styrene is still large, and it is expected that styrene will be mainly horizontal finishing. Domestic demand should pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price;

In terms of ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the domestic market continues to be weak recently, the operating rate of production enterprises is further improved, and the supply pressure in the market is expected to further increase. Downstream cautious stock, just need to buy, social inventory accumulation risk increased. There is resistance to shipment, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;

The domestic butadiene market rose slightly in the first ten days of July. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the average price of butadiene in the domestic market as of July 10 was about 3495 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.64%, a month on month decrease of 8.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 58.67% compared with the same period of last year. In the near future, there is a certain demand for butadiene downstream, in addition to the suspension of online export sales of northern Huajin during the cycle, a small number of high turnover sources boosted the atmosphere of the spot market, and speculation went up. With the rising market in northern China and the news that Shandong Huayu polybutadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, businesses in East China are reluctant to sell at low prices and offer high prices. In the middle of the week, the supply side of South Korea and China’s domestic prices slightly supported. Under the support of short-term supplier and external information, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, but high-end prices in the market are waiting for downstream inquiry to follow up, so it is difficult to make large-scale transactions. Business community butadiene analysts predict that under the guidance of suppliers, the market offer may remain relatively strong, but the transaction follow-up situation is still worthy of attention; the pressure of market continued upward is obvious, and it is suggested to pay close attention to whether the mainstream supplier price policy can bring sustained boost to the market;

In the first ten days of July, the domestic ABS market was running smoothly. Although the operating rate of domestic ABS petrochemical plant was almost full load operation, the downstream demand sentiment was fair, and there was just a demand support in the field. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At present, downstream factories are mainly cautious in stock operation, and some brands are still up in a narrow range.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: early July ABS market stable, the price of each brand narrow adjustment. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still less, the downstream is cautious about high price ABS goods, just need to take the order, but the overall demand support is still strong. At present, the profit margin of merchants is limited. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to rise in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the trend of domestic PP market was strong in the first ten days of July, and all brands of materials generally rose. As of July 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8066.67 yuan / ton, which was 3.2% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data of business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuated periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a high level, stable at the beginning of the month, and then decreased continuously. After going down 200-250 yuan / ton, the price began to fall back on July 6, and has risen by about 250 yuan / ton today. The market transaction is between 6810 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton, reaching the high level in the range, and the stock pressure is not big. The crude oil price rose slightly on July 8, which had little impact on propylene. In the downstream of propylene, the overall profit situation of the factory is general, and the purchasing enthusiasm needs to be improved. At present, the increase of propylene has reached the high level in the previous period, and the upward pressure is under pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the near future.

The upstream propylene recovered after falling in the first ten days of July and is currently in the high range, which has cost support for PP. Recent PP (drawing) market performance is strong. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the spot price of PP (wire drawing) ran smoothly at the beginning of July, and began to rise on the 6th. The average price of each brand was about 250 yuan / ton. At present, the average price of drawing material was 8066.67 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the current maintenance season, the recent wire drawing production rate fell again, powder operating rate was reported to have fallen. In terms of demand, although there is a short-term impact of imported materials to Hong Kong, the effect is not obvious and it is difficult to accumulate inventory. At present, the downstream stock mood is not high, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere is relatively cold. Recent external PP and crude oil and other peripheral news are also negative, is expected to cause resistance to PP (drawing) up.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 10, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7933.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, there was an increase of 1.06%. At present, the domestic price of PP (fiber) is slightly worse than that of PP (drawing). After the adjustment of the balance of months, the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested, and PP (fiber) has completely ended the “debt repayment” market last month. Although the overall disk helped the macro demand, in recent days, the speed of de stocking slowed down, the pressure on the supply side increased, and there was profit yield in transaction. Downstream factories have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere and insufficient follow-up of purchasing. In the first ten days of July, the PP (fiber) panel was slightly stuck in operation.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the price of business agency, the current domestic price of PP (melt blown) material continues to decline. As of July 10, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 is about 18166.67 yuan / ton. Domestic public health events were generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials decreased rapidly. At present, the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeds the demand, most of the prices have fallen, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is scattered to a certain extent. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: early July domestic PP spot market strong finishing. Upstream propylene market down after warming, there is cost side support for PP. PP (drawing) price is stronger, PP (fiber) stable small rise. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices continue to callback. At present, the industry is still in the peak season of maintenance. At the beginning of this month, the reduction of petrochemical plants’ inventory slowed down. Although there is a recovery of macro demand, the downstream factories are not active in stock preparation and the order follow-up is slow. Business mentality is loose, actual trading is weak. PP market is expected to weaken, it is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of supply and demand.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market this week to the main stable, little change. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of July 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week (June 29). Taking three months as a cycle, the price dropped by 2.56% year on year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

At present, the quotation of melamine in the mainstream area is around RMB 4400 / T in the mainstream area of Sichuan, and the quotation is RMB 4400 / T in the mainstream area of Sichuan. The mainstream quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5000 yuan / ton.

This week, the operating rate of melamine plant is about 64%, and the demand side is still not significantly improved. The operating rate of downstream terminal is low, and the intention of high-level receiving is not high. Manufacturers mainly carry out orders.

In June, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong area of upstream rose first, then fell and then rose again: the quotation first rose from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1680.00 yuan / ton on June 13, with an increase of 2.23%, and then fell to 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25, down 3.37% compared with the quotation on June 13; however, near the end of the month, urea price had a slight rise, and the quotation rose again from 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25 to June 30 RMB 1643.33/t, up 1.23%, in line with the price at the beginning of the month. On the whole, urea market has ups and downs in June, and has an upward trend at the end of the month. On June 30, the urea commodity index was 76.43, and the price was stable until July 3. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream has risen slightly recently, which has provided a certain cost support for urea, but the demand for downstream is less. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant follow up appropriately, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving the goods. The urea price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future market.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts believe that the current raw material urea market is temporarily stable, the impact of melamine is limited. The downstream demand is weak and the trading atmosphere is general. However, the manufacturers have no inventory pressure. It is expected that the melamine market will remain stable in the short term.