1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene on May 24 was 3300-3750 yuan / ton (average price of 3460 yuan / ton); the price of pure benzene on Sunday (May 31) was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price of 3600 yuan / ton), up 4.05% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions. At present, the price of pure benzene in the far month is rising, but the spot negotiation is general.

3. Outside market: this Monday is an American holiday. The outside market is closed for one day. On Tuesday, the market rose sharply, but it continued to fall since Wednesday. On Friday (May 29), South Korea imported 398 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 6.67 US dollars / ton, or 1.65% from May 22; East China imported 407 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 1 US dollar / ton, or 0.25% from May 22.

3. Crude oil: this week, the price of oil rose in an oscillatory way. Crude oil production continues to decline, gasoline demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall oil price shows an upward trend. However, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the oversupply is still the primary problem restricting the oil price. This week, it was reported that Russia began to reduce production in July, and oil prices were under pressure again. Brent was up $1.53/barrel, or 4.66%, on May 22, while WTI was up $2.59/barrel, or 7.79%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 48.51% and WTI by 41.02%

4. Related industry chain: driven by pure benzene and crude oil market, the hydrogenated benzene market rose by 100 yuan / ton this week. This week, some hydrobenzene units were restarted, and market supply is expected to increase.

“One helmet area” brings good dissipation, and this week styrene oscillates downward. Styrene prices in Shandong Province dropped 83.33 yuan / ton, or 1.52%, from last week to 5416.67 yuan / ton on Tuesday.

Last Thursday, the aniline Market in Shandong Province was stable again after the reduction of 200 yuan / ton of aniline. The price of aniline remained stable for a week, while the price of aniline remained weak. On the 29th, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4600-4820 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producing countries are considering extending the cut to the end of 2020. Attention OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10.

2. Market: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected.

In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but there is still a possibility of oscillation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable, and the average market price in Henan Province was 5500.00 yuan / ton in the week, which was stable compared with last weekend’s price, down 13.61% compared with last year. On May 28, the cryolite commodity index was 66.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.00% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.68% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring statistics of the business association, the price trend of cryolite this week has been running steadily. As of the 29th, the factory price of cryolite in Shandong is about 5000-6800 yuan / ton; the factory price of cryolite in Henan is 4500-6000 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of cryolite enterprises in Henan Province is relatively low, and most of them are sold on a single basis. Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has started about 70% of the project at present. There is a lot of demand in the downstream and the inventory is acceptable. The quotation in the week is mainly stable.

Affected by environmental protection policies and health events in the early stage, the upstream raw materials are in short supply, and downstream users purchase on demand. At present, the raw materials slowly pick up, and the demand for them begins to recover, and it is expected that the demand will start to increase in the later stage. In terms of upstream fluorite, the price trend continued to rise this week, with the average domestic market price at the weekend of 2655.56 yuan / ton, up 3.02% in the week. At present, the operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation devices in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association: in terms of the supply and demand performance of the cryolite market, the manufacturers start normal operation and have sufficient inventory, but the downstream demand gradually recovers and the demand has increased. The upstream raw materials slowly pick up and lead to good results. In the later stage, the cryolite market may be sorted up, with specific attention to the market demand.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price including tax of domestic light potash at the beginning of the month was 6312.50 yuan / ton, and the average factory price including tax of domestic light potash at the end of the month was 6250.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.99%. The current price was 7.41% lower than that of last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In May, the domestic potassium carbonate market fell. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market was weak and consolidated. The stock pressure was high. The port shipping speed continued to slow down. The downstream factories were not active in purchasing. Traders were eager to ship. The actual orders in the market were generally closed, and the price of potassium chloride was weak and consolidated. It can’t support the price of potash. In May, the market of potash fell. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market is tepid, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual volume of the market is insufficient, and the domestic market of potash fell slightly. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate in May is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the potash analysts of the business association, the domestic potash fertilizer market has a large supply of goods. There are still new ships arriving at the port after the import of potash. The inventory is further increased, and the overall transaction is not positive. It is expected that the price of potash will decline in a weak way in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in May, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 17900 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16566.67.33 yuan / ton. The price fell within the month by 7.45%.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the operating rate of Yunnan increased, the market supply increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus gradually decreased, but the range was not very large. The main reason was that yellow phosphorus enterprises basically had no inventory, the on-site spot sales were OK, and the early orders of phosphorus enterprises were still relatively sufficient. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16200-16700 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 16400-16500 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 16300-17000 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.

In May, the upstream phosphorus ore market was weak, with insufficient support. According to several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in the main stream area is around 310-400 yuan / ton, and the overall price is about 10-20 yuan / ton lower than that in the early May. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be weak and stable in recent days. In terms of coke, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 1780 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 1920 yuan / ton; the price in Southwest China is stable and the aftermarket is stable. Downstream, the phosphoric acid market has stabilized as a whole, and the prices of some enterprises have been slightly reduced for shipment. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will run smoothly in the short term. Phosphate Market is stable all over the market, market sales in general, enterprises to maintain the main orders of old customers.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the overall demand for yellow phosphorus is general, the manufacturer basically maintains the early orders, the enterprise basically has no inventory, the downstream is not active in purchasing yellow phosphorus, the price is obviously depressed, the trader’s mentality is unstable, and the market price of yellow phosphorus inclines downward. It is expected that yellow phosphorus prices will be slightly reduced in the short term, focusing on changes in the news.

Magnesium market trend

On May 26, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 13150-13400 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 131500-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13250-13350 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13300-13500 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13200-13300 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 25th was 13216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.89% compared with the average price of 13100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the average price of the market at the beginning of the year (1.1) was 14166.67 yuan / ton, down 6.71%.

The market of raw material ferrosilicon rises with strong support on cost side

At the supply end, the production of ferrosilicon plant was reduced in May, and most of the plants mainly arranged single production. The market situation is warm. It is reported that a company in fugu, Shaanxi Province recently resumed production of a 40500kva submerged arc furnace, which mainly produces ferrosilicon 75A.

On the demand side, it is reported that Xinyu Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. issued the bidding price of ferrosilicon in May, which was 5800 yuan / ton and 5830 yuan / ton of tax inclusive incoming acceptance, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton, 130 yuan / ton and 1500 tons on a month on month basis; Jiangsu Zhongtian iron and Steel Co., Ltd. published the bidding price of ferrosilicon in May, with an increase of 5750 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, with an increase of 150 yuan / ton and 2000 tons on a month on month basis, with no change on a month on month basis; Shaogang 75B ferrosilicon in May The bidding price is set at 5760 yuan / ton, 140 yuan / ton higher than the price in April, and the purchase quantity is 1000 tons. The bidding price of ferrosilicon 75B of Shaan Steel Group is set at 5657 yuan / ton in May, 121 yuan / ton higher than the price in April, and the purchase quantity is 2350 tons.

It is reported that Lianyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has determined the purchase price of 75B in June, which is 5980 yuan / ton, an increase of 230 yuan and 1800 tons compared with that in May; Liugang in Guangxi has determined the purchase price of 75B in June, which is 6000-6130 yuan / ton, an increase of 180 yuan / ton compared with the average price in May.

The market of raw material ferrosilicon is getting better and the price is rising, which leads to the pressure on the cost side of magnesium ingot, and the cost side is strongly supported.

Weak demand, weak supply and demand

Due to the impact of emergencies, the downstream demand of overseas automobile, die-casting, aluminum plants, etc. is reduced, and the demand of export end is weakened. The demand of exporters for presentation of documents is dominated by on-demand procurement. In the gradual recovery of domestic industry, the demand is dominated by on-demand procurement rather than up and down.

At present, the maintenance willingness of manufacturers is rising. On the one hand, the price is low, and the inventory pressure is appropriately reduced; on the other hand, near summer, the maintenance cycle comes, and the production is reduced.

The market is stable and positive after the price is low and just needs to be supported

Although the downstream demand is weak in the near future, the price of magnesium ingot is at a low level for nearly 4 years. With the gradual recovery of the domestic downstream market and the arrival of the superimposed maintenance season, the rigid demand support is strong. It is expected that the game in magnesium market will intensify in the near future, and the price range is 13100-13600 yuan / ton. In the later stage, pay attention to the change of the downstream market purchase rhythm.