2020 is a very unusual year. The bisphenol a market is also full of twists and turns. In the first three quarters, it is very difficult to move forward with ups and downs. After the Fourth National Day holiday, the bisphenol a market can be described as “soaring to the sky” and reaching an all-time high supported by the downstream favorable conditions. However, it is extremely high and cold. After the downstream procurement, the market is also in a great decline. The bisphenol a market The market is extremely cold near the end of the year, with few transactions.
According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer of bisphenol A was 10017 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and dropped to 7620 yuan / ton on April 3 after the Qingming Festival, which was the lowest in the whole year. After the National Day holiday, the market entered the fourth quarter with a relatively stable market price of 11860 yuan / ton. Jinjiu bank was better, but Yinshi market was not optimistic. Then in November, the market made a big splash Half a month’s increase is as high as 50%, and December is a record high. The market turnover is close to 20000 yuan / ton, which is extremely cold. Although the supply of goods is tight, the products are extremely tight, and the downstream policy is favorable, the downstream also has to consider the cost. Gradually, the market only has small orders and just needs to follow up, and the excessive optimism of the cargo holders pushes up the market again. In the twinkling of an eye, the holiday is approaching the end of the year, With the weakening of terminal demand, bisphenol a market showed a cliff like decline in half a month under the situation of buying up but not buying down. The market ended at 13000 yuan / ton. Of course, after new year’s day, the market still performed poorly and continued to decline. The market of bisphenol A in 2020 is as follows:
In the first quarter, the overall market of bisphenol a declined mainly. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer was 10016 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and it fell to 7620 yuan / ton in the second quarter, with a market decline of 23.93%. The main reason is that the domestic epidemic continues to ferment, the logistics is blocked, the inventory of upstream and downstream products is pressurized, the operating rate is declining, and the demand is weak. Overall, the first quarter just across the Spring Festival, the market downturn is mainly concentrated in March. Crude oil has suffered a historic drop, the industrial chain has been seriously damaged, and the upstream products are also in a downward trend. Under the circumstances of declining cost support and high inventory, although the operating rate of enterprises continues to drop to 50%, the recovery of downstream demand is not expected. The operating rates of the downstream PC industry and epoxy resin industry are below 40%, and the market is full of bad news. The BPA industrial chain has a very obvious advantage The industrial chain is characterized by integration. It is mainly made by condensation of phenol and acetone in acid medium. The upstream products are mainly phenol and acetone products, which are mainly used for the production of epoxy resin and polycarbonate. In addition, a small amount is used for unsaturated resin, pesticide and medicine. In the case that both upstream and downstream are not favorable, the shippers try their best to deliver goods, with frequent low prices and limited transactions.
Bisphenol a market rebounded in the second quarter. On the whole, there were large fluctuations from April to may, showing a unilateral upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer of bisphenol A was 7620 yuan / ton on April 3, and 12450 yuan / ton on June 9, with an overall market rise of 51%. On the one hand, under the influence of the expected OPEC + production reduction agreement, the upstream pure benzene drove the phenol Market to rebound rapidly, which was favorable for the market recovery. On the other hand, due to the shutdown of lihuayi phase II bisphenol a plant, the expected supply in the future will be reduced, and the market will be boosted by a wide range of goods holders. At that time, many products showed a one-day tour soaring market. In addition, affected by the propylene surge, the upstream acetone once rose to 12000 yuan / ton, and the impact of the acetone surge of 150% on the industrial chain can not be underestimated. The cost increased, and there were continuous problems of short-term shutdown and load reduction With the support of BPA, BPA’s sellers were reluctant to sell, pushing it up to a high of 12450 yuan / ton. However, after the middle and late June, the downstream obviously resisted the high price raw materials, and the market was gone forever under the sharp drop of acetone. The negative factors were highlighted. The downstream epoxy resin and PC were under construction load, the retail investors continued to make profits for shipment, and there was no goods preparation before the Dragon Boat Festival. After the festival, the traders were under pressure. At the end of the second quarter, the price of bisphenol a market ended with a downward trend of 11575 yuan / ton.
In the third quarter, bisphenol a market showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. In the third quarter, the market continued the downward trend, from 11575 yuan / ton in early July to 9100 yuan / ton in mid July. In the case of the sharp drop of raw material acetone and the collapse of phenol in the market, the downstream PC industry was obviously under construction. Due to the weather in some areas, the transportation was blocked, the demand for terminal factory shutdown was shrinking, and the market accumulated from mid June to mid July The market gradually fell to a low ebb, with the total down 27%. Then, in late July, the downstream demand showed a positive trend. Due to the policy support of the downstream wind power industry, the resin factory’s orders improved, and the market trading atmosphere improved. At that time, due to the fact that many sets of devices such as South Asia and Mitsui were still in the state of parking, the market was worried about low prices and shipping again in the early stage, and the market inventory was low. Under the influence of the low market inventory, the cargo holders quickly rose, although they rose in the second quarter However, on the whole, the market showed an upward trend under the support of the downstream.
In the fourth quarter, bisphenol a market made the magic “2020″ reappear. Ten years later, bisphenol a market ushered in a “high light moment”. There is no goods to sell and the offer is suspended, so bisphenol A is hard to find in the market. The fire in LG Lishui plant has given a boost to the market. Bisphenol a plant has continuously raised the listing price for many times, which aggravates the reluctance of the goods holders to sell. At this time, the downstream epoxy resin plants are also making orders, so it is difficult to get one product. Bisphenol a plant was increased from 13500 yuan / ton at the end of October to 14000 yuan / ton, followed by Sinopec Mitsubishi to 16500 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical to 19000 yuan / ton at the end of November. The market offer was extremely high, with East China offering 20000-22000 yuan / ton, and even some traders were robbed of only a few bags of goods. However, in December, the sales pressure of downstream factories to complete orders gradually appeared. Although the listing was high, the inventory of Baling Petrochemical, Nantong Xingchen and other enterprises increased. When the downstream lost support and the demand became weak, bisphenol A showed a precipitous drop in the middle and late December, led by factories, and the market once entered a crash situation, with a drop of as much as 6600 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the market price in 2021 is relatively stable, but under the market decline, it is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival.
From the perspective of business community, in November 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the guidance catalogue for industrial structure adjustment (version 2019). “100000 tons / year and above ion exchange bisphenol a” is still in the encouraged petrochemical and chemical projects. In the next five years, the capacity of bisphenol A projects under construction and planned in China will reach nearly 4 million tons, In 2020, the market price of bisphenol A in China has experienced an unusual year, reaching a record high. However, from the perspective of production capacity data input, the increase in production capacity is relatively limited. In 2021-2022, although the increase in production capacity is relatively concentrated from the perspective of project planning and construction cycle, the planned production capacity of independent units is very small, mostly upstream and downstream supporting, mainly supporting phenol acetone and PC units. In the future, with the entry of large-scale refining and chemical integration enterprises, the cost competition in the industry will become more and more obvious. It is predicted that the market of bisphenol A will continue to fluctuate in 2021. At present, from the perspective of the whole chemical industry, it will go through a round of adjustment period. The market of bisphenol A may be weak at the beginning of the year. Although it is difficult to have “gold” price in 2021, the market will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, and the market of bisphenol A will move forward in a rational range.
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