According to the statistics of business agency, as of June 17, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15867 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton, up 0.42%, down 11.36% year-on-year compared with June 10; nylon POY price reported 13520 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.30%, down 14.43% year-on-year; nylon FDY price reported 16750 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton, up 1.52%, down 16.67% year-on-year.

In terms of crude oil, as of June 17, WTI crude oil broke through $40 / barrel in June, with a maximum increase of 11.58%. OPEC + extended production reduction agreement also helped fuel the oil market, leading to soaring oil prices, and the market selectively ignored the adverse factors of the epidemic that remained uncontrolled. However, some OPEC countries, such as Iraq and Nigeria, did not comply with the production reduction agreement. Some countries’ negative production reduction still exposed the market to the risk of oversupply. Crude oil failed to stabilize at $40 and was subject to shock adjustment.

 
Last week (6.8-6.12), the listing of pure benzene was raised for two times in a row, from 200 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton, which was withdrawn in spot exchange. The cost side of cyclohexanone has formed stable and good support, the downstream procurement volume is large, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price has increased significantly. In terms of caprolactam, on June 8, Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam was increased by 400 yuan / ton to 10600 yuan / ton (liquid superior products were accepted and withdrawn in June). The supply of caprolactam unit is tight: 100000 tons of units in Luxi and 100000 tons of units in Lubao have been shut down for maintenance, and the industrial operation rate has declined. As can be seen from the chart, the increase of caprolactam is significantly higher than that of upstream and downstream due to the reduction of output.

PA6 slice Market is becoming weak, and slice price will stabilize after surging. Although the supply of raw materials is tight, the export situation is warm. However, the domestic demand for polymer chips improved generally, and the downstream procurement was more cautious after the price rise of PA6. Under the balance of cost and demand, PA6 price has not been greatly adjusted. Nylon manufacturers in the short-term wait-and-see, as well as raw material inventory consumption, the price should rise. The increase is in the range of 200-500 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers are not quick to receive orders, and the quotation has not been increased.

According to analysts of the business club, the overhaul of caprolactam plant has increased the cost of nylon raw materials. Due to the continuation of OPCE production reduction plan, crude oil is likely to keep high operation, and the high cost of filament fiber may be sustained. It is expected that the price of nylon will keep rising.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Recent epichlorohydrin market volatility down. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of June 15 was 10766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.71% compared with June 1 (11066.67 yuan / ton), and up 4.19% compared with May 15.

Market review: on June 1, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11066.67 yuan / ton, and the spot supply on the site was tight, but the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the demand was just the main factor. On June 2, the market was temporarily stable, and on March 3, the market price was reduced to 11000 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere was stale, and the actual order was limited. On April 4, the market price was again reduced to 10833.33 yuan / ton, and on May 5, it remained stable, and the spot supply was still tight, Holding the mentality of keeping the goods in good price, the price was raised to 11000 yuan / ton on the 6th, and the price was temporarily stable on the 7th, and the average price of the enterprise’s quotation on the 8th-11th was 10833.33 yuan / ton. The supply side was tight, but the downstream liquid resin factory was shut down for maintenance, the supply and demand game, and the trading atmosphere was light. The price was lowered to 10766.67 yuan / ton on the 12th, the manufacturer delivered the goods at a profit, the focus of market negotiation was down, and the owner of epichlorohydrin enterprise on the 15th The current quotation is 9800-10300 yuan / ton.

Raw propylene: on June 15, the market price of propylene in Shandong picked up slightly. After a week’s rally in early June, Shandong propylene market showed a significant correction in the middle of the price. According to the price of the business agency, last week’s 7-day cumulative decline of 350 yuan / ton. But at the end of the week, the price stopped falling and recovered. Today, the price slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market turnover is between 6550-6900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6550-6600 yuan / ton. The inventory situation of propylene manufacturers has improved, and the purchase in the downstream market has slightly reversed, but the raw material market has declined significantly. It is expected that under the influence of the two phases, the crude oil market is still the main trend, so the price of propylene may be lowered again in recent days.

Downstream epoxy resin: on June 15, downstream epoxy resin, double raw material weak operation, weak cost surface support, low enthusiasm for on-site operation, limited actual single transaction.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business agency, at present, the raw material propylene is picking up slightly, which has limited favorable space for the epichlorohydrin market. The downstream purchase intention is low, and the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure. In addition, the qualified epichlorohydrin products of Jiangsu Haixing will be put on the market. The downstream market is still bullish for the future market. It is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will fluctuate in the short term, and more will still fall Attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has little change, which effectively supports the price of aluminum fluoride. According to the data of business agency, the price of domestic aluminum fluoride on May 15 was 8833.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on May 8.

In May, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in China fell sharply. By the end of May and the beginning of June, the prices had stabilized and recovered. According to the data of business agency, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid held steady from June 8 to 15, with weekly growth of only 0.24% and 1.7%. The price of upstream raw materials remains strong, which effectively supports the price of aluminum fluoride.

Prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rebounded upward, and the start-up level of downstream aluminum fluoride enterprises was improved. By the early June, the start-up level of aluminum fluoride enterprises had risen to about 40%.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market has stopped falling and rebounded, which has cost support for aluminum fluoride, but at the same time, the supply of aluminum fluoride has been increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will remain stable in the near future, or slightly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China this week was weak and fluctuated slightly. On Monday (June 8), the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5600.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (June 12), the sample enterprise price was 5500.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The price is 36.93% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, styrene market price was weak and fluctuated slightly. On June 8, East China styrene closed at 5550-5600 yuan / ton, and on June 12, 5550 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On June 8, South China styrene closed at 5650-5700 yuan / ton, and on June 12, 5650-5700 yuan / ton, stable. The delivery price of the above factories was stable.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fluctuated in the week, and pure benzene and ethylene in the upper reaches of styrene rose sharply at the same time. As of Friday (June 11), the main quotation of ethylene was 679.75 yuan / ton, up 58.25 yuan / ton, or 9.37%, compared with 621.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). As of Friday (June 11), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 3750.00 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, or 2.46%, compared with 3660.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5).

In terms of inventory, the oversupply situation has not changed in the short term, and the mainstream inventory is still high. It is expected that the inventory volume in the East China reservoir area will still rise next week, the warehouse capacity will be tight, and the pressure of spot selling will be huge. In addition, this week, the operating rate of domestic styrene plants increased to about 80%. Although the cost increase brings cost support in theory, due to the heavy pressure of spot selling, the price of styrene is difficult to rise. The production of styrene plants has been close to the cash flow level, and the overall supply pressure is still large. Total inventory in East China this week was 363500 tons, down 1.06% from 369400 tons last week. Last week, part of the cargo was delayed to unload this week. Affected by the increase of the storage cost of the terminal, the pick-up volume of some terminals increased significantly. This week’s arrival is too much. It is expected that the styrene inventory will remain high next week.

On the downstream side, the overall strength of styrene downstream this week, still maintain a considerable production and marketing profit. PS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main factory price of PS in East China was 7900.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday (June 5). This week, the market was stable and consolidated due to the lack of good news stimulation.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton or 2.18% compared with 8012.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). EPS market is short of supply, some factories take orders carefully, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall performance is strong.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 13300.00 yuan / ton, up 650 yuan / ton, or 5.14% compared with 12650.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). This week, the demand for ABS terminal home appliances continued to be strong, the spot supply in some markets was tight, the overall inventory was low, and the price is expected to rise and fall in the short term. 3、 In the future, East China’s total inventory is expected to rise in the next week, and crude oil is not expected to be significantly lowered. The cost pressure in the upstream section of styrene is increasing, while the downstream keeps the operating rate unchanged, mainly to maintain rigid demand. Styrene spot sales pressure is still large, and it is expected that next week styrene will be dominated by weak shocks, first weak and then strong. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

3、 Future outlook

Next week, the total inventory in East China is still expected to rise, and crude oil is not expected to be significantly lowered. The cost pressure in the upstream section of styrene is increasing, while the operation rate in the downstream remains unchanged, mainly to maintain rigid demand. Styrene spot sales pressure is still large, and it is expected that next week styrene will be dominated by weak shocks, first weak and then strong. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

In recent years, the price of domestic light rare earth market has continued to rise, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy has continued to rise, and the market of light rare earth has recovered. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on June 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 66.00% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.46% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of June 9, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 284500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.98% in June; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 357500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.61% in June, and the prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium rose to varying degrees.

In recent years, the demand of domestic rare earth industry has improved, and the on-site goods holding merchants are bullish. The merchants are reluctant to sell, and the on-site rising sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers has increased, the price of praseodymium neodymium series rare earth continues to rise, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to us and Canadian tariffs, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter of no more than 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc. This time, the tariff imposed by the 301 measure against the United States will not be added to the rare earth metal ore, and the added tariff will be refunded. It is possible to promote the import of rare earth metal ore, which is a good support for the praseodymium neodymium oxide Market, and the price of domestic light rare earth market continues to rise.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. In the near future, the market price of heavy rare earth is generally at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the price of domestic terbium series rare earth is rising, and the market price of heavy rare earth is also rising.

The Ministry of information issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, forming the collection of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, and the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth is higher than before. In addition, the supply of medium heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to rise.