1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of February 18, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 19000 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that a week ago. At present, the market is mainly on the sidelines.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the resumption of silicone market is proceeding step by step. The progress of the whole industrial chain is significantly faster than last week. However, the market and trading atmosphere are still recovering slowly. There is inventory pressure on the single plant. The unit operation rate is further reduced this week. Most enterprises still do not make offers, and the prices are negotiated on a single basis. Some enterprises set production by sales. There are only a few quotation enterprises. According to the current market reference price of quotation enterprises, which is around 19000-19200 yuan / ton, the middle and lower reaches enterprises that have returned to work are mainly waiting for their peers to make inquiries. At present, the market lacks substantial large orders, there is no guiding price, and the manufacturers keep a stable attitude.

Operation of the unit: the annual production capacity of Ekin silicon (Jiangxi base) is 400000 tons, and the unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Shandong area: the unit in Luxi is in stable operation; Jinling unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Dongyue has an annual production capacity of 250000 tons, and one set is opened for two sets; Zhejiang area: Zhongtian Dongfang fluorine silicon is in the process of shutdown; 70% of the newly installed units are in operation; Hesheng silicon is in normal operation, and the plants in Sichuan and Xinjiang are not in operation The annual production capacity of Hubei Xingfa is 320000 tons, 80% of which has been started, and the newly increased production capacity has not been released yet; Tangshan Sanyou has one opening, one stop and one stop; this week, the single unit operation rate has been further reduced, and the Zhangjiagang base of Daokangning has a maintenance plan in March.

Industry chain: last week, the 107 rubber market in China was still stagnant, the rate of enterprises returning to work was still at a low level, most of the production enterprises closed the plate, and the superposition of logistics and transportation was limited, which made it difficult to improve the 107 rubber delivery and investment. Under the pressure of shipment, the operating rate of 107 rubber unit in the single plant was lowered, and the quotation remained unchanged, mainly based on the actual single negotiation. It is expected that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will gradually increase this week, part of the logistics will also recover, and the 107 rubber delivery and investment atmosphere will rise accordingly.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: with the governments in various regions also actively promoting the resumption of enterprises, the resumption rate of middle and lower reaches of silicone enterprises will start to rise in the near future, and the market trend will gradually become stable and clear.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 17th was $801.75/ton, down 2.64% from $823.50/ton on the 14th, and the current price is 28.80% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene overall fell today. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $737-745 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $748-754 per ton as of 17. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 17th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $907-918 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $798-809 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. As of the 17th, the price was US $330-337 / T. overall: in the near future, the European and American ethylene market is generally in a downward trend. The demand of the whole ethylene market is poor, and the market continues to decline. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on February 14, European and American crude oil futures rose for the fourth day in a row. New York commodity futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in March 2020 was $52.05 per barrel, up $0.63, up 1.2% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $57.32 per barrel, up $0.98, up compared with the previous trading day 1.7% of the price. The continuous rise of crude oil plays a supporting role in the ethylene price. In the later stage, it is good to support the ethylene price rising, but the recent weak demand and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of styrene in the lower reaches fluctuated and declined, and the price of ethanol remained stable, unable to support the price of ethylene.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the price of crude oil has risen recently, which is good for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analyst of business Chemical Branch expects that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market fell again and again this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 7662 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6626 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 13.52% lower than that in the week, 18.20% lower than that in the previous week, 32.58% lower than that in the previous year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly, and some manufacturers in the north and East China were relatively active in export. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli had some products for export, and the market spot supply increased significantly. However, the downstream latex industry was limited to return to work, and some rubber manufacturers’ devices were affected by the inventory of finished products, which led to the intensification of the basic contradiction between supply and demand of butadiene. In the week, the transaction price of Fushun Petrochemical fell to 5520-5600 yuan / ton. In addition, the supply price of Sinopec continued to decline, dragging the market bearish atmosphere, and the market approached a five-year low. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 6200 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 7000 yuan / ton. However, in view of the expectation that the price of some export manufacturers will go down further, the market will continue to be bearish in the short term, and there are many lower prices.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton in total; the price of butadiene in Liaotong chemical industry is 6610 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, and the weekly sales volume is 338 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of 390 tons of goods is exported within the week, and the transaction range is 5520-5600 yuan / ton; the load of 70000 tons / year butadiene unit in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia has slightly decreased, and there is no definite quotation for the moment, and the actual delivery order is negotiated; Dalian Hengtai The capacity of 140000 T / a butadiene plant is maintained at a load of 40-50% within a week, and a small number of superior products are exported to Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and the capacity of 200000 t / a butadiene plant is about 50-60% within a week, and some qualified products flow into the downstream factories in the region.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies fell, with a drop of 300-400 yuan / ton. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is around 40.90%; the styrene butadiene units of Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone are all in normal operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Qilu has recently been in negative operation with load around 70%; the two lines of Yangzi styrene butadiene unit have been in negative operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Shenhua has been in negative operation with load down to 70%; the styrene butadiene unit in Weitai has been shut down for maintenance since January 15, and it is planned to restart in the near future; the first line of dynaso in northern Liaoning is currently in operation In addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical SBR plants will continue to be shut down.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a leading domestic sales company, fell by 400 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; in terms of price, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to 10400 yuan / ton. The operation rate of domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant dropped to around 5.80%, and the inventory of some production enterprises was high, and the logistics was not recovered yet. After the pressure increased, the operation rate slightly decreased, and the overall operation rate of CIS polybutadiene was still lower than last week.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber has been widened, and there is no significant negative reduction in the downstream for the time being. The supplier’s low price stimulates the downstream connection. On the negative side, the logistics is limited, the downstream resumption is delayed, the output of butadiene supply end is increased, the downstream finished product inventory is under pressure, some units are under load, and the manufacturer’s inventory and tank farm inventory remain high. With the output of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Dalian Hengli sources of goods, the butadiene spot supply increases, but there is no centralized resumption of work in the downstream in the near future. On the other hand, there are many synthetic rubber manufacturers with devices to reduce the negative news. The contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals in the butadiene market intensifies, and the market is still dragging obviously. In the short term, although the low price supply stimulates the downstream replenishment, under the influence of abundant supply, the butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the decline of domestic butadiene market is difficult to be effectively contained in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up and butadiene supplier price guidance.

Market Overview:

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has been in great shock. The average price in early February was about 2330 yuan / ton, and as of February 11, the average price was about 1900 yuan / ton, down 18.45%. On February 12, dichloromethane rose 200 yuan / ton, up 10.53% per day.

Market analysis:

Products: affected by novel coronavirus pneumonia, except for the parking of Jinmao plant in Dongying, the production of dichloromethane in Shandong area has generally started about 5. Due to the limited transportation, the shipment of enterprises is not smooth, the pressure of the warehouse is increasing, the price of dichloromethane has continued to drop after the spring Festival. In February 12th, Shandong Jinling stopped completely, and the spot supply of the market dropped further, and the enterprise immediately raised the offer. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton; that in Jiangsu is about 3000 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the natural gas market has been adjusted by shocks, with a quotation of about 3000 yuan / ton as of February 12; the methanol market is not well started, mainly consuming inventory, and the overall demand is poor, at present, it is about 2147 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is at a low starting point, and the spot supply is tight, at present, it is about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is basically closed, with stable price operation; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry are under construction, with poor rigid demand and insufficient support for dichloromethane price.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, affected by the epidemic situation of new crown virus, domestic dichloromethane enterprises have poor delivery and obvious storage pressure. Affected by the overall shutdown of Jinling, the spot supply has declined to a certain extent, and it is expected that the market price will fluctuate in a short time.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride remained stable after the Spring Festival. As of February 10, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4775.00 yuan / ton, maintaining stability compared with the price of acetic anhydride before the festival, and the price fell 23.80% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

After the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the number of acetic anhydride enterprises parking increased. The normal operation of acetic anhydride equipment in Hualu and Yankuang was started, the logistics and transportation were limited, and the outbound was difficult. The downstream enterprises started lower, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and there was basically no transaction. The price was stable compared with before the festival. The ex factory quotation in North China was about 4700-4800 yuan / ton, the quotation in East China was about 5000 yuan / ton, and the quotation in Southern China was about 5300 yuan / ton /The actual transaction price is about 200 yuan / ton lower than the quotation. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have inventory sales, overall acetic anhydride market is bad, acetic anhydride drop pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

After the Spring Festival, the price of acetic acid remained stable. Affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream construction of acetic acid was limited, the demand for acetic acid was low, acetic acid operated coldly in a short period of time, the cost of acetic anhydride was stable, the pressure for acetic anhydride to rise weakened, the pressure for decline increased, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative.

Since the Spring Festival, the price of methanol has fallen, the price of methanol has fallen, the cost of acetic anhydride has fallen, the driving force of acetic anhydride’s rise has weakened, the downward pressure has increased, and the market of acetic anhydride has been negative.

3、 Future forecast:

Baijiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, believes that after the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the operating rate of industrial chain enterprises decreased, the demand for acetic anhydride decreased, and the market for acetic anhydride was bad; logistics was limited, logistics and transportation were difficult, product shipment was difficult, and product inventory was increased; the operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises was low, and the supply was average, while the operating rate of downstream customers was low, and the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was reduced Market supply and demand have both declined, and there is still downward pressure to increase the future acetic anhydride market, which is expected to be weak in the short term and stable in the medium and long term.