1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week. On June 21, the price of pure benzene was 3350-3750 yuan / ton (average price 3630 yuan / ton); on Sunday (June 28), the price of pure benzene was 3250-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3360 yuan / ton), 270 yuan / ton, 7.44% lower than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the listing price was 3200 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was reduced by 400 yuan / ton for two consecutive weeks. Port inventory is high, picking up speed is slow, inventory pressure is difficult to release. The inventory of Shandong refining enterprises increased, driving prices down continuously.

The external pure benzene fluctuated in a narrow range for three consecutive weeks, which did not provide enough support for the domestic market. On Friday (June 26), South Korea imported 424.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 5.34 US dollars / ton, or 1.24% from June 19; East China imported 420.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 12 US dollars / ton, or 2.77% from June 19.

This week’s overall decline in crude oil, three consecutive weeks of growth in U.S. crude oil inventories, and signs of aggravating U.S. public health events, offset the positive effects of production cuts. Brent was down $1.925, or 4.51%, this week from June 19, while WTI was down $1.18, or 2.96%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 38.94% and WTI by 36.4%

Downstream, as of June 27, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5450 yuan / ton, down 33.33 yuan / ton or 0.61% from last week.

Aniline enterprises are in a state of loss, and the operating rate has declined. On June 28, the price of aniline was 4300-4390 yuan / ton in Shandong and 4500-4820 yuan / ton in Nanjing.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil bears a prominent negative position, but the downward range is not large in the context of production reduction. Most of the downstream products are in the state of loss, and acetone, which had a good early rise, also fell sharply, falling below 10000 yuan / ton. The port inventory of pure benzene is difficult to decline in the short term, dragging down the price. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will still fall next week.

According to the data monitored by the business association, in June, the domestic PP market trend was more volatile, with different brand materials rising and falling. As of June 22, the main offer price of T30S (drawing) by domestic producers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, the domestic propylene market strengthened again in the third week of June after the price correction in the middle of the year. According to the price of business agency, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) dropped by 350 yuan / ton in the second week of June. But at the beginning of the weekend, the market price rose steadily until the third week, with the initial price of 6605 yuan / ton; on Friday, the weekly price was 6876 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.10%. To 22, the current market transaction price is between 6850-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, but due to the strong upward trend, the buyer’s operation is more cautious and the delivery situation is general. In terms of industrial chain, the international crude oil market is slightly up, while the downstream market is generally weak, so it is expected that the propylene price will start to decline in recent days.

Upstream propylene has a strong trend in the near future, compared with the current PP (wire drawing) market can be considered to be more implicit, but the market direction is still strong performance. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the highest point of the month is 7850.00 yuan / ton on June 18, and the lowest point is 7650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At this stage, the increase amplitude is 2.61%. The index shows that the spot price of domestic PP (brushed) fluctuates upward. In terms of supply, at present, a number of units have not been restarted, and the operation rate of powder materials has also dropped. In addition, PP has been helped to recover demand, petrochemical inventory has been reduced smoothly, and there is an expectation of supply decline in the field. In terms of port inventory, the main domestic polyolefin ports reported a total volume of 265400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 169900 tons. Downstream factories are more resistant to high-priced goods, which are mainly used as they go, and there is no large volume of delivery and investment. In the near future, the restart date of some devices is approaching, and the mentality of merchants has been affected to a certain extent.

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of June 22, the main offer price of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton. It is 1.29% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic price of PP (fiber) is in line with the pace of PP (drawing). The lowest point is 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then the operation is going up. Looking back on the speculation atmosphere of fiber materials in April, which resulted in a certain overproduction, the market atmosphere cooled rapidly in May, and digested a lot of hidden inventory. In terms of the current market, the “debt repayment” market of PP (fiber) material “retaliation” has become the past. The market in June objectively reflects the law of supply and demand prices, which is similar to PP (drawing) market in all aspects.

The market of PP melt blown materials is unsatisfactory. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) materials in China has declined significantly. According to the price of the business agency, as of Friday, June 19, the average price of melt blown PP for melt blown index 1500 by sample enterprises was 22000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.07%. Compared with the previous two months, June’s meltblown material spot can be said to be “falling to the altar”. Recent public health events show signs of rebound at home, and the international side has continued to deepen its development. Demand enhancement should be beneficial to the market. The reasons for not rising but falling melt blown cloth and materials are various.

A large number of enterprises began to flow into the production line of melt blown cloth and materials after, which is the starting point of all. However, the current domestic public health events are generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is declining rapidly, which results in the periodic oversupply. However, in the early stage of the industry boom, the products lack of standards and profits, and the high-quality export regulations block some small and medium-sized enterprises with general technical capabilities, which shows that the health of the industry is worrying. The craziness of the industry has attracted the attention of the government. The production of melt blown cloth in many places across the country is undergoing rectification. Some substandard equipment can only be converted to products such as diapers. At the same time, most of the prices of epidemic prevention related products have fallen recently, such as isopropanol, one of the raw materials of disinfectants, which dropped by 4.60% in the third week of June, which also reflects the dispersion of demand for epidemic prevention materials. Before the outbreak of public health events, there were not so many participants in the production of melt blown materials. Now, the price “diving” is actually caused by the imbalance between supply and demand.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: the domestic PP spot market is stronger in the third week of June. The upstream propylene market is stronger and the price is high, which strongly supports PP. PP (drawing) is mainly rigid, and PP (fiber) is also rigid and strong. PP (melt blown) demand weakens and the price drops sharply. At present, the stock reduction of petrochemical plants is smooth, the inventory is low compared with the same period last year, and the price of field memory is willing to rise. PP is generally helped by the recovery of demand, and supply is tight in the field. The downstream factory’s operating rate is not high, and the orders for goods preparation are used and purchased at any time, which contradicts the high price goods. The mentality of merchants is stable for the time being, and the actual trading is average. There are many restart devices in the near future, and it is expected that the supply will improve. The PP market may narrow or even callback the increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of the supply and demand side.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, as of June 23, the price of bromine in Shandong continued to be weak. At present, the average price is about 27277 yuan / ton, down 8.91% compared with the same period last month, and down 20.93% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, some enterprises in Shandong have shut down their facilities and the spot market supply is slowing down. However, the start-up of seawater bromine enterprises in North China is still at a high level, and there is no shortage in the spot market supply. However, the start-up demand in the downstream flame retardant market is still weak and the just demand is insufficient, resulting in a high stock accumulation of some bromine enterprises. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 26000-27500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the sulfur market is in a weak and stable operation, with strong wait-and-see mood in the industry, and the actual single transaction is relatively small, at present about 640 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid market is up and down, with large regional differences, the overhaul enterprises are recovering in succession, the market supply is still tight, the enterprises are rising tentatively, at present about 290 yuan / ton; the domestic soda ash market is in a weak operation, with the overall commencement of the industry around 70%, and the overall delivery of the industry The investment atmosphere is not good. At present, it is about 1283 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is in low negative operation, the overall demand is not significantly improved, the price support for bromine is insufficient, the start-up of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries is flat, the bears on bromine are obvious, and the overall market is cautious.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, although the supply of bromine in the market has declined to some extent, it is still in a situation of oversupply. In addition, with the influx of imported bromine, the market trading is weak, which is expected to remain weak in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 573 yuan / ton on June 15, and 568 yuan / ton on June 19, with a drop of 0.87% this week.

On June 19, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.25% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.77% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall domestic ammonium sulfate started stable, and the price fell slightly. About 490-650 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulphate in Central China, 500-560 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulphate in Henan, 470-590 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulphate in Hebei, 520-580 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulphate in Shandong, 500-650 yuan / ton for main ammonium sulphate outflow in East China, 470-650 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulphate in North China, and 470-650 yuan / ton for Northeast China The factory quotation of ammonium sulfate mainstream is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market fluctuated slightly, with consolidation mainly in the range. The autumn fertilizer policy will be introduced soon. At present, the market is cold in summer, and farmers’ enthusiasm for using fertilizer is weakened. It is expected that the weak consolidation of compound fertilizer market will be dominant in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, the market is gradually improving due to small fluctuation in coking grade ammonium sulfate range. The inner ammonium sulphate finished smoothly and the export improved. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 19, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4783.33 yuan / ton. This week, the market of DMF was stable with little price change.

This week, the domestic market of DMF keeps stable operation. DMF is coming in the off-season, with limited market negotiation space. At present, there is sufficient spot supply, on-demand purchase, on-demand purchase, and flat transaction atmosphere. As of June 19, the quotations of Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. are 4400 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 4550 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian 5300 yuan / ton, and Shaanxi Xinghua 4650 yuan / ton, with fierce competition among enterprises At present, the quotation of DMF in Zhejiang is 5000 yuan / ton, Guangdong 5100 yuan / ton and Jiangsu 4900 yuan / ton.

Upstream methanol: mainly based on early-stage contract orders, the overall transaction atmosphere is cold, the manufacturer’s quotation is stable, and the recent methanol market is mainly volatile. At present, the price range in Hebei Province is 1500-1550 yuan / ton, in Hunan Province is 1680-1700 yuan / ton, and in Fujian Province is 1430-1450 yuan / ton. The market is stable in the short term.

On June 18, the chemical industry index was 675, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.56% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.88% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts believe that: in June, DMF off-season is coming, the overall supply and demand is weakening, and DMF is mainly weak in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the main DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the business DMF analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)