I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic caprolactam market was down in mid October. On October 10, the average market price of caprolactam was 12800 / T, and on October 20, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12500 / T, with a 2.34% drop in price. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on October 22 is 63.21, which is flat with yesterday, 36.79% lower than the highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 8.68% higher than the lowest point of 58.16 on May 16, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of caprolactam began to fall in mid October. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton. Cash is delivered out of the factory. The first and second phase units are in normal operation, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12700 yuan / ton, which is delivered upon acceptance, and 450000 tons of caprolactam units are in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 13300 yuan / ton. The unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance.

Industry chain: the domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of cyclohexanone fell 10.99% month on month and 39.23% year on year. In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. In case of oversupply, the downstream PA6 chips will be reduced to inventory. The cost of slicing is loose, the pressure of polymerization cost is increasing, and the market weakness has not changed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, after the National Day holiday, the raw material price fell sharply, the downstream demand decreased, the pressure of caprolactam shipment increased under the upstream and downstream constraints, the liquid price began to decline, and the solid price fell with the liquid price. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam in the later period will slow down the downward trend of prices.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China last week was 2233 yuan / ton, and on October 22, the average price of nitric acid in East China fell by 20.90%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline. On October 22, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1600 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1700 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week; Shandong helitai quoted 2000 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the quotation last week. On October 21, Anhui Audley offered 1750 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 2200 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week’s offer. The nitric acid market is sluggish, the demand is light, and the manufacturers continue to reduce their prices.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material in the upstream of nitric acid, has seen a slight decline in the domestic liquid ammonia Market, with a drop of 0.52% in the week of 18th. Most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of which were 50-100 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong Province maintained a stable decline, some of which were 50 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

The demand for nitric acid market is low, and the nitric acid analysts of the business association think that the nitric acid market may continue to be weak, but there is limited space for downward adjustment.

I. price trend:

On October 19, crude benzene commodity index was 63.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.54% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.78% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (10.14-10.18), the domestic crude benzene market fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 4118.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 4080 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.94%.

Domestic market: this week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton. The market was bearish, and prices in the main production areas fell on Thursday. As for the market, as of Friday, the mainstream price in Shanxi is 3750-3800 yuan / ton, and in Shandong is 3990 yuan / ton. At present, the market is lack of good support, and businesses are still bearish.

Industry chain: crude oil: the overall international oil price rose first and then fell this week, with great volatility. Oil prices rose sharply last week as Iranian oil tankers attacked. In the later period, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth expectations and the increase of us oil product storage, which increased market worries and led to a sharp drop in oil prices. WTI was down 0.35% and Brent was up 0.54% compared with last Friday (October 11). Pure benzene: this week, the pure benzene market has a strong bearish atmosphere. The coking industry continues to break new lows. In addition, some downstream maintenance in East China and North China has greatly reduced the demand. The pure benzene market continues to decline.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices will continue to be low consolidation, the market bearish atmosphere is heavy. In terms of pure benzene, there are many overhauls and weak demand in North China market; in terms of some downstream units overhauls, the market support is weak, the trend of downstream products is weak, and the fundamentals are lack of comprehensive consideration. It is expected that the weak trend of crude benzene market will continue next week.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2225.00 yuan / ton, down 6.32% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.63 on October 18.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

After entering into September, the trend of domestic liquefied gas market (Shandong) fluctuated and rose. On September 1, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3730 yuan / ton, and on October 16, the average price was 3973.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 6.52% during the period. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 11.92%, mainly due to shocks, with an amplitude of 11.54%.

II. Market analysis

Entering the traditional sales peak season of “golden nine silver ten”, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market trend is as rapid as “roller coaster”. At the beginning of September, due to the slow improvement of terminal demand and limited consumption capacity, it is difficult for the market to get a substantial improvement. The inventory of manufacturers is more than the middle level. In addition, the international crude oil fell for two consecutive days in a week, affecting the market mentality. The Shandong market slightly gave way to profit delivery, and the market was mainly subject to narrow adjustment. In the middle of September, under the influence of Saudi Arabia incident, the international crude oil soared, and the international spot market rose. In this positive situation, the manufacturers pushed up the sentiment, which ushered in the first wave of rising market. From September 15 to 18, the growth rate was 9.12%, and the single day growth rate was more than 4%. However, the sharp rise will be accompanied by a sharp fall. After the Saudi incident, the international market has shown a downward trend, and the liquefied gas market has gradually returned to rationality. And the 11th long holiday is coming, the main refinery storage and discharge demand, continuous price reduction to stimulate the downstream market purchase, the market fell.

With the continuous profits of the manufacturers, the downstream market stock, refinery inventory reduction plan is basically completed. At the end of September, CP issued a substantial increase in October, coupled with the devaluation of RMB, which significantly increased the cost of imported gas, supported the domestic market and strengthened the mentality of the industry. After the holiday, with the liberation of transportation capacity and the opening of a new round of replenishment in the downstream, the manufacturer’s shipment continued to be smooth and the inventory pressure was not great. Sinopec has raised its prices substantially, which has driven local enterprises to keep up with the rise. Moreover, the temperature has dropped after the festival, and the terminal demand has gradually improved, which makes the market usher in the rising market again. However, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is obviously weakened. The inventory pressure in Shandong is relatively obvious, taking the lead in the delivery of profits. Other regions have no intention of falling under the support of the main high price.

Saudi Aramco October CP: propane prices are up, butane prices are up. Propane rose to $420 / T, up $70 / T from last month; butane $435 / T, up $75 / T from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3737 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3854 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Sun Yaolin, an analyst at the business club, said: international crude oil performance after the National Day was weak and continued to decline. With the rise of liquefied gas price, the trading in various markets shows signs of weakening. Shandong market continues to yield profits and the focus of transaction continues to move down. In terms of demand, the weather is gradually cooling down, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, and the market is still in the traditional peak season. At present, the air and good factors are intertwined. A small consolidation is expected in the short term. The market trend in the early part of the peak season is as exciting as a roller coaster, but there is still the possibility of rising in the later part.