According to statistics of business agency, as of May 12, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15167 yuan / ton, the same as the price at the beginning of the month, down 28.79% year-on-year; nylon POY price was 12620 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, up 0.80%, down 31.41% year-on-year; nylon FDY price was 15750 yuan / ton, stable, down 31.52% year-on-year.

The market expectation of European and American countries to restart economy and the active production reduction of oil producing countries boosted crude oil prices. According to the monitoring of business agency, WTI increased by 112.07% from April 29 to May 11. Crude oil production reduction, the first round of production reduction agreement reached earlier by OPEC + oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is 9.7 million barrels per day for two months starting from May 1. According to data released on May 1 by Baker Hughes, an oil service company in the United States, the number of oil wells in the United States has been active and the total number of wells has decreased, and the number of oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since June 2016. China, Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries have effectively controlled the epidemic. Nearly 20 states in the United States may resume economic activities, and fuel demand may be further recovered.

Product may 1 – May 12 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 5320 5680 360 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 8533 9900 1367 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 10367 11333 966 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 15750 15750 0 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15167 15167 0 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12520 12620 100 yuan / ton

 
Crude oil support, tight supply to raise prices. As of May 12, cyclohexanone rose 360 yuan / ton, or 6.77%; caprolactam rose 1367 yuan / ton, or 16.02%; PA6 rose 966 yuan / ton, or 9.32%. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, as of May 9, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased by 350 yuan / ton, and the listing price was reported as 3100-3500 yuan / ton. Last week, the external offer of cyclohexanone was increased, the market price was reduced, and the price in East China was 5900-6100 yuan / ton in cash. As of May 12, Sinopec’s listing of caprolactam was increased by 1300 to 10000 yuan / ton in May due to the shortage of spot supply and the rise of raw materials.

Before nylon manufacturers as a result of the mask market, the price of products adjusted, experienced a sharp rise and fall after the overall improvement. As for the rise of raw materials, manufacturers must keep up with the quotation, and the difference lies in the timing. Some manufacturers rose during the mask market, but didn’t do their best during the callback. The rise of raw materials just appeased market sentiment and made the price reasonable. Other manufacturers follow the script completely, the raw materials rise, and the quotation keeps up, but only limited to the products with better delivery conditions, and the price adjustment action of general demand is less.

Analysts of business cooperatives believe that the cost of crude oil production reduction and consumption expectation recovery have strong support if nothing unexpected happens. At the same time, the economy in Europe and the United States is expected to restart. China’s textile export data in April shows that the textile industry is expected to try to increase nylon in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market rebounded slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 2496.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 2543.33 yuan / ton, up 1.87% in the week, 22.30% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, the trading atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market improved. As of May 9, Hebei Yutai, Shanxi orchid, Dezhou shengdeyuan and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether device failed, so no offer was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 2520 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2730 yuan / ton, that of Henan lankaohuitong is 2560 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 2520 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market rebounded slightly, with the operating rate around 15%. During the May 1st Festival, it was not active to enter the market with the mentality of “buying up and not buying down” in the downstream market. The manufacturer delivered goods generally, and the price continued to decline. After the festival, the continuous rise of international crude oil boosted the gas market, the rise of liquefied gas generally, and the rebound of cost methanol, which led to the rise of dimethyl ether. The lower reaches of the market are enthusiastic, the purchasing is more active, the market transaction atmosphere is better than the earlier stage, and the price is the main actor.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are WTI crude oil (21.78%), Brent crude oil (8.31%) and liquefied gas (8.08%). There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with gasoline (- 3.33%), diesel (- 1.52%) and naphtha (- 1.47%) as the top three products. This week’s average was up or down 3.03%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the weakness of international crude oil has fallen, hitting the market mentality, and the civil use of liquefied gas has been reduced, which is bad for the market. Downstream mentality is cautious, after the completion of replenishment, it mainly consumes inventory after delisting, which is expected to be lowered in the short term or weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, up to May 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in stable operation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of the primary and high-end 30% grade phosphorus ore mainstream areas is around 320-410 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: more than a week has passed since May, the phosphorus ore market is still stable and mainly consolidated, and the overall market is weak. Influenced by factors such as transportation and environment this year, according to national data, the output of phosphorus ore (including p2o530%) in March was 5.454 million tons, down – 32.6% year on year from the same period last year (8.092 million tons). At present, the cumulative output of phosphate rock in this year is 13.37 million tons, down – 36.4% compared with the same period last year (21.029 million tons).

At present, in Hubei Province, the phosphorus ore market has basically recovered, and large-scale mining enterprises have resumed their external sales. However, the current market demand is general, and the sales of enterprises are under pressure. At present, 28% of the original ore shipboard prices in Hubei Province are close to 370 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of new orders is slightly down 20-30 yuan / ton, so there is room for negotiation. The annual production capacity of Liushugou mining mine in Hubei Province is 1 million tons, and the normal production of the enterprise. The current price reference: the quotation of 28 grade phosphate ore ship plate is 360 yuan / ton, and that of 30 grade phosphate ore is 400 yuan / ton, about 30 yuan / ton lower than before. Sichuan area: at present, the starting load of mining enterprises is not high, partial supply is still tight, and the quotation of enterprises is temporarily stable. At present, the delivery price of 25% raw ore in Mabian county is around 190 yuan / ton, and that of 30% phosphate concentrate is around 340 yuan / ton. At present, the delivery price (including tax) of Mabian county is 195 yuan / ton. The annual production capacity of the enterprise is about 700000 tons. Guizhou area: the phosphate ore market is dominated by stable consolidation, 30% of the phosphate ore car plate is quoted at 320-330 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction volume is slightly lower. The phosphate mine of Xifeng Phosphate Mine in Guizhou Province has resumed mining. At present, the price of 30 grade car plate for phosphate ore is 330 yuan / ton, and the output is expected to be about 300000 tons this year. Yunnan area: the market of phosphorus ore is stable and the price is stable. At present, the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is 275 yuan / ton, which is mainly for old customers.

Industry chain: since May, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been temporarily stable, and the market quotation range is relatively small. Among them, the enterprises with short supply of goods have a slight trend of strong price, but there are not many new orders in the market as a whole. The downstream purchases are mainly on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, the reference price of Yunnan market is 17300-17500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the overall trading atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is generally at present, the downstream is limited by the support of raw materials, the downstream plant has a lot of stability, and the output is not stable, so it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will still be sorted and operated in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the weekly average price of industrial grade formic acid in China this week is 2066.67 yuan / ton. The overall weakness of formic acid market this week is mainly downward, and the market turnover is acceptable.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole was in a weak downward trend, with the overall price down 3.12%. Due to the recovery of all aspects of inventory and transportation, the current price has been adjusted to a stable market. In terms of equipment: the manufacturer’s equipment is basically in normal operation, and the delivery is acceptable. This week, the supply of formic acid in the formic acid market has increased, the market supply is acceptable, and the enterprise has inventory. Price: the main factory price of purified water formic acid is about 1833.33 yuan / ton, and the main barrel formic acid dealer’s quotation is 2570 yuan / ton. As of Friday (May 8), Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. has offered 2300 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1800 yuan / ton; Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. 2100 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 1600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products continued to be weak and stable, and some enterprises reduced their prices by a small margin. The whole domestic caustic soda city keeps stable operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. In some areas, the market price of caustic soda has been slightly reduced, but it has little impact on the overall market. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the downstream products leather and pesticide industry demand is relatively cold.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is generally weak and stable. Dealers have inventory this week, the market supply is acceptable, the market supply has increased, the downstream demand is insufficient, the market supply is greater than the demand, it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In April, the decline of domestic butadiene market deepened. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 5127 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, with a 24.14% drop in the month. The price was 50.35% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in April, the domestic butadiene market experienced a low-end shock after a sharp decline. At the end of March and the first half of April, there was a large pressure on the external market supply, and the transaction price of some sources of goods was slightly lower, dragging the domestic spot market. In addition, the supply of domestic manufacturers is stable, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber market is not good, and the weak situation of crude oil and bulk commodities is superimposed. The external news and supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene market are all short, and the market continues to decline. In the middle of the month, after the market fell below the 4001st line, the lower reaches of the market searched for bargains and made up their positions. In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling. With the supply price of Sinopec rising, other suppliers rose, and the market rebounded slightly. However, due to insufficient transaction follow-up and crude oil falling to a new low, businesses are under pressure.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s East China butadiene price has been reduced by 1200 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Nanjing Chengzhi 10 The 10000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit was shut down on April 7, and the shutdown status is continuing at present; the 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is now in normal operation after being restarted at the end of March, and the manufacturer plans to shut down in early May, please continue to pay attention to the details; the price of shenhuaning coal butadiene fell by 770 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the 64000 T / a butadiene unit is planned to shut down for maintenance for about 40 days on May 5.

Industrial chain: SBR: in April, the domestic market price of SBR rose first and then fell. At the beginning of this month, the international crude oil rebounded, and Tianjiao futures also explored the range, the news surface obviously improved the mentality of the styrene butadiene industry; in addition, the raw material butadiene market stabilized after the fall, the market trading was significantly better than that at the end of last month, the industry actively entered the market to make up for the empty orders in the early stage, and some of the off-site idle funds entered the market, the market speculation atmosphere gradually rose, the first-hand single opening households did not intend to lower out, and the broad price increase became the main factor Supply prices also take the opportunity to rise. However, terminal enterprises tend to keep a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by international public health events, their export orders have been greatly reduced. They only need to buy styrene butadiene rubber to maintain rigidity, and have limited acceptance of high-end offers. Since the middle of the month, the market inquiry atmosphere has become weak again, the quotation of merchants has become loose, and the quotation of high price has fallen down; at the end of the month, under the pressure of trading and investment, most of the manufacturers hang upside down for shipment, and the supply price of the sales company has declined, while the price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere has risen again, waiting for the market to restart after the festival.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the price of raw material butadiene is at a low level, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber starts at a high level, and the spot inventory is growing; downstream factories purchase cautiously, and the purchase price tends to be more depressed in the declining market. The ex factory and market prices of China’s cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to a historical low in early April. After the middle of the year, with the early delivery of empty orders, hot money entering the market to prepare goods, product enterprises and other replenishment to take goods, the social inventory pressure slightly shifted; the speculation atmosphere gradually rose, the market premium increased, and the supply price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased. By the end of the last ten days of the business, the replenishment of middlemen and arbitrage market was over, and then, in case of negative factors such as the price of crude oil hanging upside down, the speculation heat of the cis-1-polybutadiene rubber market fell, and PetroChina South China took the lead in falling the factory supply price, and the market offer also fell. At the end of the month, various sales companies announced the news of new price drop in May, but when the price of butadiene went up, the market fell into wait-and-see situation again.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the domestic unit maintenance, the external supply pressure eased slightly in May, the start-up of the synthetic rubber industry was high and some units were expected to restart. On the negative side, the inventory of the downstream synthetic rubber industry continued to be high, the supply of domestic butadiene trade link was still relatively abundant, and the foreign trade orders of the end tire and products industry shrank. In May, the northern manufacturers Ningmei, Zhongsha and Yangba in East China all have parking maintenance plans, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight and balanced; meanwhile, the starting load of the main downstream synthetic rubber industry is acceptable, which supports the domestic butadiene spot market. The short-term market is dominated by suppliers. With the firm supply price, the market follows a small increase. However, businesses expect that the arrival of cargo in the second half of the month, and the terminal demand for tires and automobiles continue to be depressed, which makes it difficult to effectively relieve the inventory pressure in the circulation of synthetic rubber, and still drag the butadiene market. Overall, it is expected that the supply and demand will slightly improve in the first half of May, and the market may be consolidated. However, the transaction follow-up is insufficient, the expectation of cargo arrival at the port, and the trend of synthetic rubber market drag down. In the second half of May, the market may regain its weakness. It is suggested to pay attention to the internal and external transactions, and be cautious in position.