Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of October 10, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5,400 yuan/ton, which fell 0.37% in the same period last month and 3.76% in the same period last year. Domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and some areas are strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic ethanol market is steadily rising, the atmosphere of taking goods in the lower reaches of Shandong province is still acceptable, which supports the booming mood of liquor enterprises and the rise of waterless quotations of large factories; the supply in northern Jiangsu continues to be low, and driven by the surrounding rising trend, the focus of negotiations moves upward; the current market in central China is smooth, and some factories queue up to pick up goods, but Huaxing starts today, and subsequent supply is expected to increase and continue to rise. There is insufficient momentum; the price of corn purchases in Northeast China continues to decline, and liquor companies are watching the market cautiously.

Industry Chain: Corn: New grain in North China is on the market, corn in the near future is out of storage alternately, the supply of corn market is relatively sufficient, and spot quotation in Northeast China is further declining. But after the National Day holidays, deep processing enterprises in some areas have resumed production, and the rising start-up rate helps to stimulate the demand for maize. Overall, the fundamentals are tepid, but considering the end of the auction and the low level of inventory, potential profits support the price of maize.
Ethyl acetate: The domestic market atmosphere of ethyl acetate is general. The price of raw material acetic acid has been reduced in some areas, and the cost of raw material has a negative impact. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals in the field are generally supported, and shipments are still dominant in East China and North China. Affected by the abundant supply side, South China is declining. It is expected that the domestic ethyl acetate Market will be consolidated in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market or high-level consolidation in the short term will weaken in the long run as supply increases.

Price Trend

In September 2019, the domestic market of 1# lead ingots declined after the shock. The average price of domestic market was 17 150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16 693.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 0.91%.

On October 8, the lead commodity index was 104.26, up 0.84 points from yesterday, down 22.20% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 39.70% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In September 2019, Lun lead showed a low trend. The spot lead price in East China was strong. Influenced by the environmental protection and production restriction of smelters before National Day, the overall performance was relatively strong. This month, the lead price increased by about 400. The mainstream price of brand lead in Shanghai maintained around 1700-17150 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai maintains around 1700-17150 yuan/ton. The overall performance of waste batteries is weak, slightly reduced. The main quotation of waste batteries for electric vehicles is around 8800 yuan/ton, and that for automobiles is around 8100 yuan/ton. After the festival, with the end of production restriction, manufacturers began to work one after another, lead production increased, there is the possibility of a high drop.

Industry: Base metals are in a situation of blocked and pressured decline. Eurozone data is weak in the week. Britain is facing heavy resistance to leave Europe. The US House of Representatives announced a formal impeachment investigation on President Trump. The US dollar surged 99.2 points, surging 99.2 points, and basic metals fell all the way.

Supply and demand: According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on September 18, the global lead supply gap narrowed to 4,200 tons in July and 13,100 tons in June. In the first seven months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 47,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 35,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on September 18, the global lead market supply gap was 177,000 tons in January-July 2019 and 265,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of July, the total stock was 27,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to July 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 7.329 million tons, an increase of 11.70% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 3.577 million tons, an increase of 782,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States fell by 11,000 tons from January to July 2019. In July 2019, the output of refined lead was 105.27 million tons and the consumption was 105.74 million tons.

Domestic events:

Waste lead-acid batteries will change dramatically. Will old batteries still make money by implementing new standards on October 1st? After environmental inspections began in 2017, a large number of illegal smelters were devastated. More than 80% of the used batteries flowing into illegal channels have experienced the embarrassment of no one recycling them. Large-scale environmental inspection has made the recycling mode of waste batteries, which has lasted for more than 10 years, begin to face changes. After environmental protection supervision, the waste battery market in the past two years has been in a relatively depressed state compared with previous years.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. Apart from the PMI data which is difficult to be optimistic, only the employment data in the United States can be expected. The US Dollar Index over 99 is prone to rise and fall, which will increase the expectation of opening market after the festival. The only possible expectation is the willingness to replenish goods after the festival.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, propylene market prices rose sharply in mid-September and fell sharply in the second half of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7596 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was a monthly low price of 7531 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.86%. This month’s high price appeared on September 17, 8004 yuan per ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: the price of propylene enterprises in September 1st was increased by 50~100 yuan / ton on the 2 day after the stabilization in September 1st, and only a few enterprises rose a little on the day of 6~8, and the price remained stable on the 6~8 day. The price on 9~10 day was down by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of some enterprises increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 11 day. The average daily price of 12~15 was generally stable. The price rose sharply in the middle of the month, and the price rose by 300/ and 18 days on the 16 and 17 days. Firm prices fell slightly from 19 to 22, flat on 23, slightly down on 24, stable on 25 and 26, and began to show a downward trend on 27. Today, they continue to decline by 200 to 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the market turnover is around 7450 to 7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Near the National Day holiday, due to logistics constraints, some upstream manufacturers have increased inventory pressure, there is a certain demand for warehousing.

Industry chain: upstream, the Saudi Arabian incident in mid-month led to a sharp jump in crude oil, most chemical products have followed up, propylene rose by 4.31% in two days. Later crude oil market slightly declined, relatively low, propylene support is weak. On the downstream side, affected by environmental protection, the downstream propylene plant load reduction, prudent purchasing, mainly just needed, weak demand side, propylene is not optimistic.

This month PP spot shocks steadily up, but the future market is not ideal. Although the production restriction order of polypropylene plant is expected to be implemented in many areas of China, the recent rework and commissioning of some factories have led to the increase of plant start-up rate in polypropylene enterprises and the expected supply of more negative prices. The upsurge of pre-festival stock-up in downstream factories has basically been completed. Recent purchases are more general and high-end prices are less traded. It is expected that the recent trend of PP will probably continue the trend of shock adjustment, and the positive effect on propylene is limited.

In September, the domestic propylene market rose steadily and declined at the end of the month. Cost support is weak, downstream demand is relatively light, more wait-and-see mentality, it is expected that the future market will be weak consolidation, propylene has a negative impact.

The trend of propylene oxide in September is similar to that of propylene. It began to decline in the latter half of the year, with a monthly decrease of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 7.01%, which has a favorable impact on propylene or air.

After the fall of epichlorohydrin in September, it began to climb all the way, with a monthly increase of 11.94% and a higher monthly amplitude of 23.29%. It is expected that high-level finishing operation will dominate in the short term, which will have a positive impact on the price of propylene.

The monthly amplitude of n-butanol is less than 2%, which has little effect on propylene.

Octanol was stable in the first half of September and slightly declined after the second half of the month. Due to approaching the National Day holiday, environmental protection and transportation inspection are strict, cost support is weak, downstream market prices also decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is generally, and at present, the octanol inventory is low, tight delivery, high-end decline, low-end touches the whole controllable, it is expected that after the national day, the octanol market or shock rise, has a certain positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market rose steadily in mid-month in September, with a monthly increase of 13.08%. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation, with limited benefits for propylene.

In September, the phenol Market in East China rose by a large margin of 16.28%, but the downstream inquiries were scarce, the terminal factories became weak, the National Day Holiday was approaching, there was no lack of delisting performance, the shipment of goods was not smooth, along with the market offer, the center of gravity was depressed by low prices, narrow decline, the transaction was relatively cold. It is expected that some traders in the phenol Market are eager to send goods at a low price, so the prices continue to fall. Olefin has little effect.

In September, the acetone market in East China also rose by 28.62%, but at the end of the month, the market talks were cold and the offer was weak. Near the National Day holiday, the market trading atmosphere slowed down, the downstream terminal factories purchased few real offers, the holder’s offer range fluctuated, and the sentiment of shipment was strong, the real transaction was insufficient. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the volume of transactions will be limited, which has little impact on propylene.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that in general, propylene declined after September. Upstream crude oil market downturn; approaching national day, logistics restrictions, refineries have a certain row demand; downstream environmental impact, manufacturers load reduction, procurement mainly based on demand, so it is expected that in the near future, Shandong propylene prices will still have downward.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to move steadily at the bottom in September. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the month was 1816.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 1816.67 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 0.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In September, the domestic market for sodium pyrosulfite is still tepid, and the market turnover is still light. The market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is between 1700 and 1950 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 1800 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic pyrosulfite market as a whole was relatively loose, and the adjustment of raw material cost continued to be weak, which led to the purchase and sale of downstream trading entities continued to be cautious. As a whole, with the use of the whole, the increase of new orders was limited. Most manufacturers were based on orders from old customers, and the demand was not as expected. In September, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite as a whole remained at the bottom relative to each other. Steady forward.

Industry chain: As of September 29, the price of upstream soda increased by 0.77% in a month, while the price of sulphur dropped by 16.35% in a month. Overall, the cost of sodium pyrosulfite processing still showed a slight downward trend. Under the pressure of cost, the overall price of sodium pyrosulfite market rose weakly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that raw material costs continue to oscillate downward, market demand is not up to expectations, trade entities are cautious in purchasing and selling, lack of favorable support, the overall recovery of sodium pyrosulfite still takes time, and it is expected that domestic pyrosulfite market prices will continue to fluctuate slightly at the bottom in October.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the domestic PC market showed a downward trend in late September, and the price of Bayer 2805 was revised back. As of September 27, the average price of Bayer 2805 offered by domestic producers and traders was about 19266.67 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.86% compared with last weekend.

II. Cause Analysis

At the beginning of September, China began to impose anti-dumping duties on Phenol in the United States. Bisphenol A in the upstream of PC entered the upstream channel, and the focus of domestic spot quotation moved up. By late September, the downstream pre-festival stockpiling was basically completed, and the enthusiasm for buying declined. Actual turnover shrank and BPA boom cooled down. Buyers operate cautiously and factories buy and trade mainly to digest the rising trend. Recent domestic bisphenol A spot offer has fallen, which is not good for domestic PC cost. At present, the domestic PC market is running weakly. After the sharp fluctuation of international crude oil and the rise of the “Golden Ninth” peak season reserve fever, PC is now in a visible high level of callback. Before the festival, the enthusiasm for stock-up has declined, and downstream buyers’operation has gradually been limited. They are cautious and wait-and-see. Businessmen have obvious willingness to sell goods at profit. As of Friday, domestic PC spot offer showed a weak pullback.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that the domestic PC upstream bisphenol A market fell in late September and the offer was downgraded, which weakened the cost-side support for PC. Downstream by two standby basically completed, the buyer’s enthusiasm is reduced. Businessmen’s willingness to make profits is obvious because of obstruction of shipment. The domestic PC market is showing a high decline. It is expected that the PC spot will continue to operate in the near future. It is suggested that close attention be paid to domestic supply and demand.