On September 26, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 26th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 25, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 7 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 779-781 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 798-800 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. However, the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 25, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $56.49 per barrel, a decline of $0.80. Brent crude oil futures fell to $62.39 per barrel, a decline of $0.71. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), as of September 20, U.S. crude oil stocks, excluding strategic oil reserves, were lower. The increase of 2.4 million barrels in the previous week resulted in a decline in crude oil prices, which had a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, and a slight decline in Xylene prices. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend slightly lower, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, up to 24 domestic PTA start-up rate is about 90%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 89%, due to PTA supply increase, trading atmosphere is general, buy-out trade. Traders mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, affected by crude oil price shocks downstream PTA market prices remain low, is expected to maintain PX market prices in the short term or 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the current market price of aniline in Shandong is 7300-7400 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 7600 yuan/ton, up 12.63% from last week.

II. Analytical Review

Raw material: Beginning in late August, the price of pure benzene has been rising. The operating rate of some pure benzene enterprises is not high, and the inventory of hydrogenation benzene factory is low; the domestic pure benzene inventory in September is low, and the market supply is tight; in terms of external market, the arbitrage window of the United States and South Korea remains open, and the external market price shocks higher. At the beginning of this week, affected by the incident in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, the price of pure benzene in the external market soared, driving the domestic market to be bullish, and the listing price of pure benzene rose to a high of 5800-5900 yuan / ton.

Products: It is reported that 130,000 tons of aniline plant in Shanxi Tianji is unstable, parking overhaul, supply reduction, downstream enterprises turn to Shandong and other places to buy, coupled with strong support from the cost side, aniline prices rose rapidly this week.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: The risk of crude oil supply has subsided, but the risk of the Middle East has affected the market, and oil prices are still likely to rebound. Downstream high-price follow-up of pure benzene is insufficient, pure benzene may be stable and weak in the near future.

Shanxi Tianji plant is expected to resume in late September, which will ease the supply tension of aniline. National Day is approaching, some downstream may be ready before the festival, to support the demand for aniline.

It is expected that aniline will run strongly in the near future.

On September 24, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 105.18% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is low and fluctuating. As of 24 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.79 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite plant has been started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains low in the near future. The fluorite market is purchased on demand, and the fluorite field is gone. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of the 24th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3000 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remains low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite maintained a low trend. As of 24 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 300 yuan/ton. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid had a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may continue to decline.

Price Trends of Spot Precious Metals

On September 23, 2019, the domestic precious metal price, spot gold and silver, stopped falling and rose. Among them, the average daily increase of silver spot price was 1.95%, and the spot price of gold rose by 1.17%.

Data from business associations showed that the average spot price of gold in China was 349.18 yuan/g on the 23rd, down 1.22% from 353.50 yuan/g on the 1st day, and up 22.91% from 284.10 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (01.01). The spot price of silver in China is 4442.33 yuan/kg, which is 0.65% lower than the spot price of silver in the first day, 4471.33 yuan/kg, and 22.80% higher than the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), which is 3617.67 yuan/kg.

Short-term positive factors

1. Geopolitical factors: On the 20th, the United States announced sanctions against three Iranian entities, such as the Central Bank of Iran. The geopolitical situation of U.S. -Iran relations is not optimistic.

2. Sino-US trade negotiation factors: According to Xinhua News Agency, the Sino-US economic and trade team held consultations at the Deputy ministerial level in Washington, D.C., and conducted constructive discussions on economic and trade issues of common concern. The two sides also seriously discussed the specific arrangements for the 13th round of high-level economic and trade consultation between China and the United States to be held by the leaders in Washington in October. Both sides agreed to continue to maintain communication on relevant issues.

Expected market outlook

There are many uncertain risk events in Sino-US trade, the expectations of interest rate cuts of central banks are increasing, and the market hedging mood rises and falls. Generally speaking, the advantages of precious metals in hedging, preserving and increasing value, and resisting inflation are favored by the market. Business analysts believe that the price of precious metals has now tended to a relatively high level in the history of gold and silver, and the market is expected to see a change in risk aversion enthusiasm in the near future, with strong operation predominantly in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The average price of 64% diammonium is 2416 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2416 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price is stable. On September 20, the DAP commodity index was 72.09, down 30.00% from the peak of 102.98 points in the cycle (2011-10-08), and up 1.22% from the low of 71.22 points on July 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic diammonium market is running steadily. The start-up rate of enterprises is still acceptable, and the volume of new orders is limited. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei is quoted 2300-2500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is quoted 2400-2550 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou is quoted 2500 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium in Anhui is quoted 2400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw material sulfur prices continued to fall, market negative bearish sentiment remains, the trend is weak. Inventory consumption is slow and the market is hard to find a good one. Phosphate ore market is running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations quote prices. The average price of domestic 30% grade phosphate ore is around 330-430 yuan/ton. This week, according to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic market for liquid ammonia is stable and small. Some enterprises in Shandong have slightly increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, local ammonia volume is tense, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods. However, manufacturers with large ammonia volume are mainly stable in price. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2900-3100 yuan/ton. Compound fertilizer enterprises are not ideal for purchasing, and the stock pressure is relatively high, and the autumn market is weak.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the list of fertilizer prices, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 5 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were ammonium nitrate (1.68%) and liquid ammonia (1.04%). The main commodities falling were ammonium chloride (-1.05%) and urea (-0.73%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.1%. According to the business association price monitoring, in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), phosphorus chemical prices rose and fell in the list of two commodities, fell in a total of 0 commodities, rose and fell in a total of three commodities. The main commodities that rose were phosphoric acid (2.53%) and yellow phosphorus (1.77%) with an average increase or decrease of 0.86% this week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that this Tuesday’s ammonium market continued to be weak, low export prices, upstream and downstream game. Due to weak raw material sulfur market, limited support and lack of favorable market. Insufficient terminal demand, on-demand procurement. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will continue to operate in a weak position in the later period.