Price Trend

According to the data monitored by the business associations, the PP market has been volatile in mid-September, and domestic price quotations have increased. As of September 19, the mainstream offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was around 8866.67 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from the first week of September.

II. Cause Analysis

Upstream: Upstream propylene, recently attacked by Saudi oil production plant, news that US President Trump is considering relaxing sanctions on Iran and Saudi Arabia said that oil production will soon resume, and other international news, the international crude oil market soared after a sudden dive, the propylene market has a negative impact. However, the supply of propylene is tight before and after the festival, and the current refinery inventory is low. The downstream aggregation factories are still profitable, customers are active in purchasing and trading. The downstream market is mostly stable and rising slightly. After the on-site quotation rose, it stabilized and the operation gradually tended to be cautious. Propylene prices are expected to be adjusted and operated in the near future.

Products: In mid-September, PP market overall price shocks have risen, with emphasis on consolidation. Upstream propylene is relatively stable after rising, and the cost-side support for PP is still acceptable. Although crude oil has fallen sharply after the rise, the Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling has just passed and the National Day stockpiling is approaching. In addition, the air pollution control scheme around Beijing and Tianjin wings in China has resulted in the shutdown of multi-city aggregation factories. The stock of two barrels of oil PP and traders has continued to decline. Businessmen have actively shipped, and the stock has declined significantly. Tight spot supply is beneficial to price formation. On-site trading atmosphere is more cautious, and the spot market is generally better. Zhenhai Refinery (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 9050 yuan/ton. Jiujiang Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8850 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical (CNPC East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8700 yuan/ton. Daqing Petrochemical (CNPC Northeast) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted for 8950 yuan/ton. Dalian Organic PP (CNOOC Northeast) ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8850 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

PP business analysts believe that: in mid-September domestic PP price shocks have risen, upstream propylene rose after stabilization, cost-side support is still acceptable. Polymerization plants in many areas of China are expected to implement production restriction orders, and polypropylene plants are expected to stop production more. Downstream factories due to the recent upsurge of reserve goods before and after the two holidays, the recent acquisition of more active, better demand. The trading atmosphere is good. Dealers are willing to make a bid, and it is expected that the recent trend of PP will probably continue the trend of shocks and adjustments.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the business community price monitoring: as of September 17, the domestic melamine market prices rose slightly. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in China is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, which is 1.07% higher than Tuesday (September 10) and 1.61% higher than August 17.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Domestic melamine market prices rose slightly on the 17th. At present, the start-up of domestic melamine plant is not high, there is no pressure on manufacturers to ship, and the market price is generally slowly rising. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5450 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5850 yuan/ton; and the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Henan is around 5800 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw material liquid ammonia rose 0.52% on the 17th day compared with last Tuesday (September 10). On the 17th, raw material urea, Shandong small granular urea mainstream factory price temporarily stabilized: Yangmei Plain quoted 1800 yuan/ton, the quoted price temporarily stabilized; Ruixing Chemical quoted 1820 yuan/ton, the quoted price temporarily stabilized; Mingshui Chemical quoted 1850 yuan/ton, the quoted price temporarily stabilized. On the whole, the ex-factory price of urea in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on the 17th, and the actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. Raw urea fell by 0.91% on Tuesday, September 10. The demand of downstream industries such as sheet metal, papermaking and moulding has not been substantially improved.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on September 17, 2019, there were 28 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 1 commodity increased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were nitric acid (12.62%), acetone (4.72%) and aniline (4.55%). There were 8 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines were dichloromethane (-7.41%), sulfur (-2.79%) and ethyl acetate (-1.78%). The 17-day average rise and fall was 0.55%.

3. Future market forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the upstream raw material liquid ammonia prices rose slightly, urea prices fell slightly, little impact on melamine. The melamine market rose slightly, but the downstream terminal demand did not change significantly, and the market was limited. It is expected that the domestic melamine market will be consolidated in the short term.

1. Nickel Spot Trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on September 17 was 135766.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.99% lower than 139950 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 4.73% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 51.68% higher than that at the beginning of the year and 27.80% higher than that at the beginning of the year. Nickel prices have risen from September 3 to the highest price in nearly seven years, approaching the 150,000 mark, and are now mainly retraced.

LME nickel inventory increased by 6.6%.

As of September 13, LME nickel stocks increased by 6.6% to 166680 tons, the largest increase since June. LME nickel stocks fell slightly from 2406 tons to 164274 tons on the 16th.

2. LME Nickel Inventory Trend Chart in Past Years

As can be seen from the chart above, when LME nickel stocks were at a low level of 150,000, nickel prices rose relatively high. Now LME nickel stocks are rising and nickel prices are falling. But nickel stocks are still at a low level of 160,000.

Indonesia Prohibits Mining and Philippines Develops New Domestic Mines

Earlier, the Indonesian government announced a ban on nickel exports, which shocked the global nickel market. As the second largest nickel producer in the world after Indonesia, the Philippines can be said to want to seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to develop new domestic mines, increase production and raise domestic nickel prices. It is expected that Philippine nickel miners will increase their ore production when the new mining season begins in April next year. Nickel production in the Philippines is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% over the next 10 years.

But at the same time, doubts arose. The Philippine Nickel Association (PNIA) said that it was still open to question whether the Philippine nickel industry could act as expected because of the stringent and uncertain mining policies in the Philippines.

3. Small adjustment of downstream stainless steel price

As of September 17, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14107.14 yuan/ton (including tax), which was flat compared with the previous trading day and slightly increased by 4.3% compared with the beginning of the year.

Stainless steel high output but limited terminal demand

In August, the initial value of stainless steel production in China was 260.2 million tons high, and some steel factories responded well to orders received in August. Stainless steel mills are still profitable, and high output of steel mills will increase the demand for nickel metals. With the high production of stainless steel, the inventory of stainless steel has reached a historical high, but the terminal consumption performance is weak.

Indonesia’s Ban on Mines has come to an end and Nickel Price has returned to the fundamentals

To sum up, Nickel analyst Liu Meimei of the Business Association believes that the dust of Indonesia’s mining ban has settled, bullish sentiment has eased, with the increase of LME nickel inventory, nickel prices have slightly retraced. Overall, however, the high output of stainless steel downstream supports nickel prices. Plus, there is still a shortage of nickel in the nickel mine. The golden nine peak season comes quietly, or has some support for nickel. It is expected that the price of nickel in September will have no other news, basically in a high volatility trend.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week was 4800 yuan/ton, and the price was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. produces 10,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax. The price of the manufacturer is firm, and the demand of downstream resin and pesticide is still acceptable.

Industry Chain: This week, the domestic methanol market has increased slightly. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2076 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2098 yuan/ton, up 1.06%. The downstream demand for polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

Polyformaldehyde analysts of business associations believe that polyformaldehyde will be mainly narrow adjustment.

Price Trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5066.67 yuan/ton on September 02 and 5266.67 yuan/ton on September 12, up 3.95% compared with the same period last year, up 18.73%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Since September, the price of phosphoric acid market has been rising all the way. As of September 12, the average price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid market is about 5266.67 yuan/ton. The price of Hubei Xingfa Group is 5000 yuan/ton, Wengfudazhou is 5000 yuan/ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda is 5400 yuan/ton, and Guangxi Mingli Group is 5800 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton, Qianrui chemical quotation 4600 yuan/ton, prices have increased in varying degrees. The main reason is that the price of raw material end yellow phosphorus has returned to a high level, the spot supply of local yellow phosphorus market is tight, the trading focus has moved up, phosphoric acid enterprises are supported by raw material yellow phosphorus and bid up, but the downstream demand is limited, the supply of individual enterprises is scarce, the quotation is suspended, and the overall market trading atmosphere is not high, mostly in a wait-and-see state.

Graph.100ppi.com

Industry chain: In the near future, the phosphate ore market has not fluctuated and operated smoothly. The overall market turnover is light. A small number of purchases are made downstream. Enterprises mainly reduce production and guarantee prices. Some enterprises plan to stop production and sale stocks at the end of the month in order to meet the 70th anniversary of the celebration. Yellow phosphorus Market Spot tension, strong wait-and-see sentiment of enterprises, the focus continued to move upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 18,000-20,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 17800 yuan/ton. The downstream ammonium phosphate market continued to be weak and prices fell again.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week of 2019 (9.2-9.6), the price of phosphorus chemical industry rose and fell by two kinds of commodities, falling by one, and falling by two kinds of commodities. The main commodities rising were yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and phosphoric acid (3.95%); the main commodities falling were diammonium phosphate (-1.08%). This week’s average rise and fall was 2.88%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch believes that with the market demand for yellow phosphorus improving and the overall focus upward, phosphoric acid enterprises are well supported by the raw material end, and phosphoric acid is expected to fluctuate with the narrow range of cost in the short term.