Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fluctuated narrowly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7866 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price dropped by 1.26% in the week, 34.44% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market fluctuated narrowly this week, pure benzene Market rose, cost support was good. This week, Hong Da export normally, Luxi temporarily not export, Haili spot export volume is small, the overall supply of cyclohexanone fluctuates little. The downstream chemical fibre market is steadily on the upstream. Sinopec has raised 300 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton by listing and acceptance. Some chemical fibre factories still have acceptable purchasing volume, solvent market needs to be purchased, and the overall spot pressure of cyclohexanone factories is not large. At present, the main price of cyclohexanone is from 8200 to 8300 yuan per ton cash withdrawal, up 400 yuan per ton from last week.

Industry chain: As for raw materials, pure benzene, the price of pure benzene has been rising rapidly this week. According to data released earlier this month, China imported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene from Korea in June, while the average monthly export volume from Korea to China in the first five months of this year was more than 150,000. Pure benzene from Korea generally accounts for more than half of China’s total imports. The main reason for the substantial reduction of Korean supply is that Chinese downstream factories concentrate on refusing orders from June to July in consideration of import costs. In addition, there is a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, resulting in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea, and a large number of Korean goods are diverted to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in pure benzene exported to China. Caprolactam: This week, domestic caprolactam liquid spot market prices rose. Pure benzene prices continued to rise, cyclohexanone prices also rose, caprolactam costs were strong. There are still many parking and repairing devices in caprolactam plant this week. At present, the parking and repairing facilities in Shandong Haili, Zhejiang Juhua, and petrochemical plants have not been restarted. The spot supply in the market is still tight. With the restart of some maintenance devices in Fujian, the overall start-up of polymerization has increased slightly, and the demand for caprolactam has been slightly increased. Well, supply and demand support the market. Sinopec raised its caprolactam listing price by 300 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton in July, boosting confidence on the spot.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the current spot pressure of the factory is not big, and the supply may not fluctuate much. Cost side has good support, demand side, downstream chemical fiber market is stable and good, Shenyuan will drive or increase the demand for cyclohexanone, solvent market more on-demand procurement. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to consolidate steadily, moderately and upwardly.

On July 4, the fluorite commodity index was 109.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.34% from the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and up 121.93% from the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 312.5 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market is on demand. Rise. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 5th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite keeps high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12070 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may remain volatile.

Price trends:

In June 2019, the crude benzol Market shocked and rose. The ex-factory price in North China was 3,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3,550 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 10.94%.

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: pure benzene external market continues to rise, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased to 4850 yuan/ton, hydrobenzene enterprises are following up positively, the market is more favorable, domestic mainstream crude benzene manufacturers’bidding price increased, downstream market entry enthusiasm increased, low-level supply in the field is difficult to find. Due to the stable start of downstream construction, and the early inventory has been consumed, downstream buying is high, the market is still bullish after the market, coke enterprises go relatively smoothly. As for the market, the crude benzol quotation for processing in Shanxi Province was stable at 3400-3450 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last month; the crude benzol quotation for processing in Shandong Province was stable at 3650-3700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last month. In terms of market supply, with the recent rise in coke prices, the start-up rate of manufacturers has increased, and the overall start-up rate has remained around 70%.

Industry chain: crude oil: Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil prices fell first and then rose in June. Overall, oil distribution fell slightly from the end of last month, while U.S. oil rose more than 10% from the end of last month. Oil prices fell to their lowest level on June 13, falling below the $60/barrel mark, as sentiment in the crude oil market declined at the beginning of the month. Starting in the second half of the month, the tension between the United States and Iraq deepened. In addition to various incidents, oil price shocks rose, and U.S. oil rose to its highest level this month at the end of the month. Pure benzene: In the first ten days of this month, pure benzene continued its stable form last month, basically maintaining a stable price. Starting in the middle of this month, stimulated by the rising price of downstream styrene and the decline of port inventory, the price has risen many times, reaching its highest level this month on the 26th.

3. Trend forecast:

As of the end of this month, the external market of pure benzene has slightly fallen, the international oil price is weak, the good stamina is insufficient, and the purchasing intention of downstream has fallen. It is expected that the future market will continue a slight upward trend, with narrow fluctuation as the main factor, but the fluctuation space is limited.

On July 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 55.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.68% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 14.91% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has been temporarily stable, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations is 5600-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton. The quotation ranges from 5600 to 5700 yuan/ton, the market price rises slightly, the quotation of enterprises rises slightly, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement on demand is the main, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable.

In recent years, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is stable. In recent years, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is low, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend remains low, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is around 7250 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

On July 1, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 109.26, which was the same as yesterday. It was 22.20% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 103.88% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintained a high level on July 2. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12040 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on-site is tight at present, and the situation of on-site goods has improved recently. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid plants The market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen with the increase of the ex-factory price. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant market turnover is general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise slightly.