I. price trend
According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic caprolactam market was down in mid October. On October 10, the average market price of caprolactam was 12800 / T, and on October 20, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12500 / T, with a 2.34% drop in price. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on October 22 is 63.21, which is flat with yesterday, 36.79% lower than the highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 8.68% higher than the lowest point of 58.16 on May 16, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
II. Market analysis
Product: the price of caprolactam began to fall in mid October. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton. Cash is delivered out of the factory. The first and second phase units are in normal operation, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12700 yuan / ton, which is delivered upon acceptance, and 450000 tons of caprolactam units are in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 13300 yuan / ton. The unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance.
sulphamic acid |
Industry chain: the domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of cyclohexanone fell 10.99% month on month and 39.23% year on year. In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. In case of oversupply, the downstream PA6 chips will be reduced to inventory. The cost of slicing is loose, the pressure of polymerization cost is increasing, and the market weakness has not changed.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.
III. future forecast
According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, after the National Day holiday, the raw material price fell sharply, the downstream demand decreased, the pressure of caprolactam shipment increased under the upstream and downstream constraints, the liquid price began to decline, and the solid price fell with the liquid price. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam in the later period will slow down the downward trend of prices.
Sulfamic acid |