Price Trend

Aniline prices in Shandong and Nanjing remained stable this week at around 5600-5950 yuan per ton, according to a large list of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: Earlier this week, due to the positive impact of last week’s inventory decline data in East China Port, the overall market climate improved. As the price of crude oil began to fall sharply in the end of the day, the trading atmosphere of the whole market turned to light and the focus of the negotiations moved down. However, the overall price of pure benzene is strong, and the price of external market is high, which has certain support for the domestic market spot. This week, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the domestic market is around 4300-4500 yuan/ton.

Products: This week, the domestic aniline Market is stable and prices remain stable. Although the international oil price has fallen sharply, the aniline market continues to hold up.

Downstream: This week, MDI overall showed a downward trend, falling by 2.76%.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Next week’s pure benzene market will be affected by crude oil prices or continue to be weak.

Nanjing chemical aniline plant was delayed to restart, which supported the price of aniline.

The aniline Market is expected to continue to operate weakly and steadily next week.

Price Trend

In May, the cyclohexanone market showed a sharp decline. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic market price of cyclohexanone was 10366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8600 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price fell 17.04% in the month, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market showed a sharp decline in May, the market rose at the end of the month, but the downstream demand is poor and the boost is weak. During the month, the market price of cyclohexanone in East China dropped from 10,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 8,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, traders increased slightly to 8,950 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of support from chemical fiber demand, the price dropped to 8,800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of January, Shandong Luxi and Shandong Haili exported cyclohexanone one after another, and the overall spot supply increased. Late in the month, Yangmei Fengxi temporarily stopped and restarted, Yangmei Taihua temporarily reduced its load and raised its load, Jining Zhongyin Yuejie stopped, Shandong Luxi plant was abnormal, and export volume decreased. In the month before May Day and the week before May Day holidays, the demand for downstream chemical fibers was only normal production of Hengyi caprolactam plant. The Yongrong cyclohexanone plant was restarted around May 25. The load of the plant was gradually increased, and the shortage of cyclohexanone was gradually reduced. Generally speaking, the demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market in May is far less than that in April. The demand for cyclohexanone is difficult to form a boost because of the small consumption of solvent in the market.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene price fluctuations in the month up. Earlier this month, the impact of Tehrer’s comments in the United States, commodity prices and oil prices fell, leading to a weakening of the focus of pure benzene, East China once fell below 4400 yuan per ton. In mid-month, Hengli’s shipment tended to be stable, which compensated for the reduction in maintenance of Northwest equipment. The price of East China remained stable near 4500 yuan/ton. In late January, the decline of port stocks gave the market an opportunity to speculate. Meanwhile, the large increase in external prices also supported the domestic pure benzene rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally and the cost support is relatively stable. In June, the spot of cyclohexanone will increase, and the demand of downstream chemical fiber market is still on the low side. Generally speaking, the supply of cyclohexanone will exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term market for cyclohexanone to remain weak.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of June 4, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5340 yuan/ton, and the domestic ethanol market maintained a rising trend.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market continues to rise in some areas. The price of corn ethanol in Jilin in Northeast China is running at a high price, the pressure of factory stock is not great, the mentality of executing pre-contract orders remains steady; the alcohol market in North Jiangsu, North Jiangsu, East Jiangsu and North China is narrowly rising, the water-free goods are smoothly moving, the prices continue to rise, and the downstream purchases are on demand; the quotation of enterprises in South China is rising, the actual transaction performance is stable, and the downstream demand is light.

Industry Chain: Maize: In May, the inventory continued to decline, and the corn trading enterprises still showed a strong reluctance to sell. We predict that the general trend of maize market in the near future is still bullish, the probability of short-term surge is still lacking of foundation, sustained slow rise is still the mainstream performance of the market, and the probability of callback in the near future is low. Maize prices are expected to remain strong for most of June. Ethyl acetate: Ethyl acetate is stable in China, ethyl acetate plant in North China has started to reduce, and most of the production enterprises have lost sales price, the market of ethyl acetate has been rising slightly and market digestion is on the lookout; there is sufficient supply in East China market, and the production enterprises are willing to speculate, but the actual market demand is insufficient, and the market fluctuation of ethyl acetate is limited; there is sufficient supply in the market, and the downstream terminal is rising. After the purchase of ethyl acetate, the enthusiasm faded, and the market shocks were obvious.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethanol market wait-and-see sentiment is high. Although most domestic enterprises’prices continue to rise, market turnover is less heard, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is higher, and overall demand is light. Ethanol analysts of business associations predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will remain high.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market remained in order this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8370 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8551 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 2.16%, which was 28.45% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market maintained a consolidation situation, Sinopec’s supply price remained stable at 8400-8500 yuan/ton, and Liaotong Chemical Industry’s bottom bidding price increased by 400 yuan/ton to 8880 yuan/ton. During the week, the spot supply of high-grade products in the northern market increased slightly, and the turnover of Liaoning’s currency source was still acceptable. However, the qualified products of Jiutai and Shenhua Ning coal in Inner Mongolia continued to be exported, and the market supply was abundant as a whole. Fushun Petrochemical in the middle of the week a small number of supply and flow pats, aggravating the downstream inquiry cautious mentality, the market is not lack of wait-and-see and other drop expectations, although the transaction price of Liaoning currency sources on Thursday is relatively strong, but the downstream inquiry is cold. Although some shipments arrived at the port in the Eastern China tank farm during the week, the mentality of the merchants was strongly supported by the external market, and most of the offers were stable.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, natural rubber, although not good, but the supplier has increased the price of styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic market offer slightly increased, but inquiry follow-up performance is general, the actual transaction is still small. Cis-butadiene rubber, domestic cis-butadiene rubber market rose. The supplier raised the price of cis-butadiene rubber, the quotation price of merchants followed up, the inquiry atmosphere on the market was not good, the buyer was conflicted with the high offer, the spot turnover was small, and the merchant’s shipment was not good. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external offer is relatively strong; downstream just need to replenish the warehouse. In the negative side, the construction of cis-butadiene rubber industry began to decline, and Northern manufacturers normally exported. Although the price of a small amount of goods in Northeast China is strong, which has brought some support to the mentality of the merchants, the domestic spot supply is relatively abundant in the later period, the follow-up of inquiries in the downstream is limited, and the downstream rubber industry starts to decline, and the market performance of supply and demand is weak. In the next cycle, Liaoyang Petrochemical Plant will have a parking maintenance plan, or there will be inventory clearance measures. Influenced by the news, the butadiene analysts of business associations expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be mainly reorganized. They suggest that attention should be paid to the manufacturers’prices and transaction guidelines. At the same time, some external sources are on sale, and the turnover situation is also worthy of attention.

Commodity index: Polyaluminium chloride commodity index on May 31 was 105.41, down 0.54 points from yesterday, down 2.50% from the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), up 4.47% from the lowest point of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Latest price (May 31): Polyaluminium chloride (solid, content (>28%) quoted 1950 yuan/ton.

Analysis Points: On May 31, the domestic polyaluminium chloride market was relatively stable. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is about 1800-1900 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) and 330-390 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%).

Industry chain: Recently, the price of hydrochloric acid and other products in upstream of polyaluminium chloride is relatively stable; on May 31, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid monitored by business associations was about 80 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has not changed much in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, if there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the market price of domestic polyaluminium chloride is basically stable.