Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of May 15, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market prices rose and fell mutually.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market shows a regional trend, with both ups and downs. As for port market, futures market continued to decline under the influence of Sino-US trade war, while East China port declined, while South China market rose slightly under the influence of some factors such as delayed arrival. In the mainland market, there is no inventory pressure in the main production areas of Northwest China. Underground receipts in North China and South Shandong are still acceptable, with a slight increase in some areas. The trading atmosphere in Henan and Anhui is not good, the overall market is weak, and local transaction prices are weak.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: downstream demand is normal, formaldehyde recent trading is general; raw material prices rise, cost-side boost, formaldehyde with raw materials show a rise. At present, Linyi in Shandong Province is around 1180-1200 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surroundings are around 1400-1450 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The mainstream of domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable, and individual prices are weak. The warehouse pressure of enterprises in North and East China is not high, and the inventory in Northwest China is declining rapidly. Therefore, the main offer is stable, and some of them are only slightly shallow. Domestic off-season, demand is still cautious, just need to purchase. However, recent export transactions have been heard, and the monthly turnover is estimated to be the normal level. Dimethyl ether: The market trend of dimethyl ether has stabilized and declined individually, downstream purchasing on demand, manufacturers’inventory is still on the high side, but the willingness to support the market is obvious. It is expected that short-term domestic dimethyl ether Market or cross-market consolidation will dominate.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the equipment: the maintenance of some devices in the field has not ended, and the local supply side is tighter; downstream: some downstream areas are still acceptable, some slightly pushed up; main production areas: at present, there is no inventory pressure in the Northwest region, some of the sales are suspended, and the state of mind in the field is firm. On the bearish side, futures: affected by the Sino-US trade war, the futures market continues to weaken and the trend is not good; on the demand side, with the end of the current downstream phased replenishment, some downstream stocks are sufficient, while the local demand side is weak; on the cost side, the price of coal and natural gas is at a low level, and the cost support is relatively limited. Methanol analysts from business associations expect that the domestic methanol market will show a differentiated trend in the short term.

On May 13, the fluorite commodity index was 100.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.22% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.10% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2862.5 yuan/ton as of 14 days, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the recent downstream market is general, for the fluorite market purchasing on demand, fluorite market price fluctuation. In recent years, the downstream units have been operating poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field is normal, and the downstream terminal receipt is not good, resulting in a temporary stable market price trend. As of the 14th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite was temporarily stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable temporarily. As of 14 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 820 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change very much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. The fluorite price has risen slightly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the fluorite market price may remain stable.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium nitrate in China has been running weakly this week. The overall price of potassium nitrate has been lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton, or 1.14%. As of May 11, the price of potassium nitrate, the first-class industrial product in China, was 4350 yuan per ton. This week, the market was mainly weak.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market Trading atmosphere is cold, the overall inventory is at a low level, the start-up rate of manufacturers has decreased, the actual volume is low, the downstream purchasing volume is low, a small amount of replenishment, it is expected that the market of potassium nitrate is weak in the short term mainly, domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4000-4400 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of Business Association believes that the recent nitric acid market has been narrowly consolidated and spot trading is not hot. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will hardly improve in the short term, and the market may continue to consolidate.

With the re-production of the pre-maintenance equipment, the problem of methanol oversupply will be aggravated. However, trade frictions between China and the United States, as well as increased U.S. sanctions against Iran, will have a positive effect on the market, and methanol will be stronger in the near future.

Emergency Support Price

In early May, US President Trump claimed that tariffs should continue to be levied on China, and the situation of Sino-US trade problems has sharply declined. China’s methanol imports from the United States account for about 1% of China’s methanol imports, and the direct impact on the methanol market is limited. However, China will import a large number of plastic products from the United States. Once the United States begins to impose tariffs, the number of plastic products imported from the United States will drop dramatically. This part of the gap will be filled by the domestic, thus promoting the demand for coal-based olefins.

In addition, the United States announced that it would impose tougher economic sanctions on Iran, lifting the previous immunity granted to eight countries and regions to import crude oil from Iran. Iran has drawn up a contingency plan for blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East is sharply tense. In addition to driving up oil prices, there are rumors in the market that the United States will ban all countries from importing chemical products, including methanol, from Iran, which is China’s largest source of methanol imports. If tensions between the United States and Iran intensify, market concerns about this will further support methanol prices.

The pattern of supply and demand is not optimistic

The methanol enterprises which routinely overhauled in the earlier period concentrate on resuming production in the middle and late May, and the domestic supply will increase substantially. However, as the price of methanol continues to decline, the economic situation of the production enterprises is not good. At present, the profit of the coal-based methanol production enterprises is about 200 yuan/ton, while the southwest gas-based methanol production enterprises are in a loss. In this case, the bidding willingness of the production enterprises is obvious.

In terms of emerging demand, the construction of coal-based olefins in China has been stable, 600,000 tons of new equipment in Jiutai has been put into operation, and the MTO plant in Nanjing Chengzhi has also been divided, and the demand for coal-based olefins has shown a stable trend. In the traditional downstream area, the profit of glacial acetic acid declined sharply, some enterprises began to repair, and the start-up load decreased. Formaldehyde industry is in a loss state, and affected by environmental protection, the start-up load is limited. Therefore, methanol demand showed a slight weakening trend.

Huge port inventory is an important reason for the continued weakness of methanol futures prices. As of May 8, the port inventory of methanol was 777,100 tons, down by 89,900 tons at the high point, with a range of 9.95%. Among them, the inventory of East China Port was 660,400 tons, while that of South China Port was 117,700 tons, down by 45.72% at the high point, while that of South China Port was 116,700 tons, down by 98,300 tons at the high point. With the gradual decline of imported methanol arrival at port, domestic port inventory is showing a high drop trend. Nevertheless, during May 1st, there was a small accumulation of port stocks. In addition, compared with the same period last year, port stocks were still at a high level, and high stocks still had a suppressive effect on prices. On the whole, the supply and demand pattern of methanol is still not optimistic. The problem of oversupply will become more and more obvious in the later period. It is difficult for supply and demand side to provide sustained power for price.

In summary, with the pre-maintenance enterprises resuming production and the overall weakness of demand side, the problem of methanol supply exceeding demand will further deteriorate, but at present, the production enterprises are in a slight profit state, and the downward space of methanol is gradually compressed. In this case, methanol prices are expected to come out of a rebound, in order to repair the current low profits, it is suggested that the operation can take a buy-at-a-bargain strategy.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, propylene oxide is rising actively today. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 10300-10700 yuan/ton, up 5.20% compared with last Thursday.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide Market is on the rise. Due to the main plant equipment maintenance and negative impact, the overall supply situation continues to be tight, some factories are reluctant to sell mentality. Today, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market is 10400 yuan/ton, while that of East China Mainstream Market is 10700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of propylene in upstream is down, and the trading atmosphere is weak.

3. Future market forecast:

The propylene oxide Market is expected to remain good in the short term.