“Golden nine silver ten” after, Titanium dioxide Prices continue to surge. With the recent days of uninterrupted price letter, titanium dioxide prices once again usher in the climax. Including the Panzhihua sea, Xing Mao titanium titanium industry nearly ten titanium dioxide announced price increases, price increases in 500-1000 yuan / ton.

Overall, 2016 red titanium dioxide is a foregone conclusion, after a downturn in 2015, titanium dioxide soon rise into the channel, when the chemical industry has not recovered, titanium dioxide prices have risen 50% compared with the beginning, become a “dark horse chemical market”.

In the domestic economy is not good enough environment remains a kinetic energy rebound, 2015, titanium dioxide enterprise production, downstream demand to pick up, the environmental supervision and strict, high cost and other factors driving, but the real decisive factors still from titanium dioxide enterprises, after 2015 the hardship, titanium dioxide enterprises this year has a feeling of exaltation upon fulfillment of a the.

Several factors in 2016 is still the power price of titanium dioxide

First, the market in short supply

From the market has been watching the news, titanium dioxide producers subject to environmental policy pressure, the yield is difficult to match the market heat, enterprises generally less inventory, manufacturers in East and southwest China and Southern China area manufacturers concentrated for single line production.

Second, strong export data

1-9 months of 2016 total exports of 54.0603305 tons of titanium dioxide, the 3 quarter only on exports in 2015 were more than 53.8394441 tons, exceeding 2 thousand and 200 tons, up 0.41%, exports accounted for the vast majority of previous rutile anatase, the fourth quarter exports have rebounded, even if the export prices of domestic prices slightly lower but the manufacturer still preferred for export. With the continued depreciation of the RMB, the export of titanium dioxide industry oriented or continued strong.

Third, the cost is still robust

Last week, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area continues to rise, some miners put up in the range of 50 yuan / ton. Automotive logistics cost, the transportation cost is too high and middling, the current shortage of ore, resulting in middling and tight spot; Panzhihua titanium in situ recovery, the spot market supply stepping up tight, some miners and stockpile of expectation; in addition, downstream titanium dioxide prices rise again, industry chain to Dumbledore obviously.

At present, the Panxi area above 38 grade titanium ore price in 650-700 yuan / ton (excluding tax), 46 grade 10 titanium ore price in 1000-1080 yuan / ton (excluding tax), 47 grade titanium ore price in 1050-1080 yuan / ton (excluding tax).

This year the market is titanium dioxide for downstream be caught off guard and dealers, as prices continue to jump up, complaints become larger, but the market is more prosperous, producer price is more firmly, the amplitude is also more and more big, chase sell market or this kind of phenomenon is well explained.

In 2016, only a month, time is difficult to support producers to lift the price surge, certainly do not rule out some enterprises inflated.

Global oil prices in 2016 remained at around $50, the price of raw materials and coatings showed a different trend. Wang Zhishun from the international crude oil to paint various raw materials prices and the market demand, a profound analysis of the 2016 China coating raw material market.

Wang Zhishun said that the 2016 monitoring products, 91% of paint raw materials, product prices, only 9% of the raw materials prices.

The emulsion of overcapacity in the industry increasingly fierce competition

In 2016 the domestic acrylic emulsion capacity of 3 million 400 thousand tons, an increase of 14.9% in 2015. But the operating rate has decreased significantly, is expected in 2016 the annual average operating rate of less than 7, in 2016 the total output of about 2 million 240 thousand tons in the vicinity.

From the recent years of acrylic emulsion production capacity, yield, operating rate statistics, although the acrylic emulsion production capacity continues to grow, but the rate slowed, the operating rate declined year by year, indicating the emulsion facing excess capacity, industry increasingly fierce competition.

As the main downstream acrylic emulsion for waterborne architectural coatings, acrylic emulsion for downstream of the total consumption of about 74%, followed by the textile and paper adhesive, respectively accounted for 8% and 7%.

2016 acrylic emulsion is expected to total production of 2 million 240 thousand tons, of which building coating consumption is expected in the vicinity of 1 million 657 thousand and 600 tons. Acrylic emulsion capacity in China is mainly concentrated in the eastern region, followed by Southern China and North China, the factory production mainly concentrated in the surrounding coastal provinces. East China production capacity, the largest proportion of Jiangsu and Shanghai.

The price of 2015-2017 emulsion chart

The rapid rise in coal prices led to coal enterprises urea costs increased sharply, and the other is the main cause of the recent urea fertilizer prices by category. In addition, price control, automotive environmental protection also has certain effect. “This year the supply side reforms a huge impact on the coal industry, development and Reform Commission proposed to the coal production capacity of 2.5 tons of annual objectives and tasks. According to the national development and Reform Commission data show that 1-9 months, the national coal production of 24.6 tons, down 10.5%.” In November 3rd, the Bohai thermal coal price index closed at 607 yuan / ton, the highest on record since the beginning of this year, compared with the beginning of 371 yuan / ton rose 236 yuan / ton, rose 63.6%. According to the consumption of coal per ton of coal based urea for 1.55 tons, which means that from the beginning of the year so far, only one coal, urea enterprises rising costs 365.8 yuan / ton.

According to the National Bureau of statistics data show that in early January this year, China’s circulation small particles urea price is 1452.5 yuan / ton in early November, the price of 1458.8 yuan / ton, not much difference between the price. “Coal prices fall in the near future, but the entire north to the heating season, the demand for coal will continue until the spring of next year, the price decline in space does not exist. Especially coal inventory fertilizer use is not normal operation of fire delivery, transportation capacity decreased, so prices may not fall.” One is the high cost, the other is the low price, the follow-up of urea and other kinds of chemical fertilizer prices still rising larger space.

Because the cost of raw materials and the strong support of railway transport price increases, the recent production companies around the very price hike plan and strong will, in the short term the market price is strong. While the downstream demand is still weak, short-term wait-and-see strong willingness to accept price increases. The industry believes that the fertilizer market change dilemma.

The current market supply and demand structure analysis, manufacturers only sporadic sign, high turnover is unlikely. Wait until the end of November after the winter order of compound fertilizer enterprises launched, the market trend is clear, fertilizer prices can be out of the doldrums.

A ammonium sulfur raw material prices continue to rise, but the downstream production of compound fertilizer Co., a demand for ammonium ammonium, a smooth operation of the market, enterprises orders with limited space, single transaction based. Sulfur, sulfuric acid, ammonia and other raw materials prices and freight cost of ammonium strong support, enterprises in order to delivery, most orders can be sent to the new year, short-term sales pressure. In the case of price instability, some companies began to see the market, do not rush to put goods again. Expected short-term ammonium prices continue to slow slightly to consolidation, the local behavior of the lord. Last week (November 14 ~ 20 days) 55% powdery ammonium average ex factory price of 1620 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 2.86%; the average wholesale price of 1750 yuan, up 2.22%.

Diammonium Tuesday ammonium market remained stable. After the production of phosphate and compound fertilizer enterprises, very price will increase day by day. During the manufacturers tentative rises in price, but the downstream acceptance is not high, no significant fluctuations in price. Last week, the domestic 64% phosphate factory price of 1975 yuan, the wholesale price of 2250 yuan, and the previous week. The international market prices were mixed, in Pakistan phosphate demand, driven in part area prices, but this is only temporary, Pakistan DAP demand soon end. In addition, the market speculation that Chinese may cancel the export tariffs diammonium 100 yuan.

Prices continue to rise in space

at the end of November, OPEC meeting resolution will be members of the specific implementation plans to limit production. When agreement is reached at the beginning of next year, crude oil supply and demand will be balanced.

Approaching winter, the market will enter the traditional consumption season, the international crude oil price is expected to exceed $55 per barrel, which will cost from the end of polyolefin price formation support. In addition, petrochemical manufacturers inventory is still a low level, last week was increased slightly, but the overall delivery pressure, PP prices may be up there.

* on the international crude oil prices is expected to rise to speculate:

Last week, the international crude oil prices rose slightly, the expected production is the main influencing factors. However, OPEC and Russian crude oil output high, decline in U.S. crude oil production trend has stalled, difficult to alleviate the problem of excess supply.