1、 Price trend

Business Club: maleic anhydride rose strongly after the festival, or more than 50%

According to the data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12750.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 53.00% from 8100.00 yuan / ton on February 1.

On February 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 120.11, up 9.42 points from yesterday, down 2.88% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 134.68% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the Spring Festival, the market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply. At present, the spot circulation is tight, the factory has no position pressure, and the large factories have entered the maintenance cycle, so the supply is tight. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hebei and South China was about 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton and 12500 yuan / ton respectively.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil. The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of maleic anhydride is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities due to the rise in the price of crude oil.

At present, after the Spring Festival, the downstream unsaturated resin has entered the stage of returning to work and production. The rising raw materials increase the pressure of resin cost and push up the resin market.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose sharply after the festival. As of February 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene Market in East China was 6500-6600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 6550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. The price of n-butane is high.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe: at present, the maleic anhydride factory position is low, and has entered the maintenance stage, the supply and demand is tight, and the downstream resin has resumed production, it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will fluctuate upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

On February 24, the market of propylene oxide rose. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 24, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18566.67 yuan / ton, up 0.72% compared with the previous trading day and 3.53% compared with January 24. At present, the propylene oxide manufacturers are still in a state of no pressure, the price support mentality still exists, most of the factory contracts are steadily promoted, the new order negotiation is higher and the feedback is smooth, the lower polyether level is high, and the wait-and-see mood increases.

Market price fluctuation of propylene oxide (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 23rd price, 24th price

East China, 18400-18600, 18600-18800

Shandong Province, 18000-18300, 18200-18500

Upstream propylene, as of February 23, Shandong propylene market prices continue to rise. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the first half of the period remained stable, while the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work, and the price rose by 200 yuan / ton every day from the 21st, and even rose by 4 yuan on the 22nd After the Spring Festival, a total of more than 1000 yuan / ton has been raised. Now the market transaction has reached 8500 ~ 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8500 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 23, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 14833.33 yuan / ton, increased by 12.66% compared with the price on February 18; downstream soft foam polyether, Shandong soft foam polyether market fluctuated at a high level on February 24, and the current cost support is still strong, but the downstream resistance to high price raw materials is gradually strong, the buying enthusiasm is declining, and the target price is low In the former Shandong area, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether market was around 19100-19500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that at present, with the rise of raw material prices and cost support, propylene oxide manufacturers are still under no pressure. The downstream polyether market is slowing down and propylene glycol is pulling up at the same time. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will mainly run at a high level, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 23, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 22600 yuan / ton, which increased by 1067 yuan / ton or 4.95% compared with the price before the Spring Festival (21533 yuan / ton on February 10), and by 1500 yuan / ton or 7.11% compared with the price on February 1, 2021 (21100 yuan / ton) %。

Positive attitude, good atmosphere, silicone DMC rising after the festival

After the return of the holiday, the trading atmosphere of the domestic silicone DMC market is good, and the industry has a lot of bullish attitude towards the market trend. In the early stage, some factories have limited orders, and the sales pressure after the holiday is small. On the 18th, Shandong silicone DMC market opened the curtain of DMC price rise, with a rise range of 200-500 yuan / ton on the first day. The collective rise of chemical raw materials also gives silicone DMC industry confidence, and the industry is bullish On the 19th and 20th, the market price of silicone DMC continued to rise, the low-end quotation continued to decrease, the price concentration moved up, the downstream stock was active after the festival, and the inquiry increased. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was adjusted upward again by 500 yuan / ton. At present, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC in domestic mainstream areas is around 22300-23000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 22600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 21533 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival, the price after the festival has increased by more than 1000 yuan, or nearly 5%.

At present, the organosilicon monomer units have been resumed in succession. Several large factories in Shandong Province, including Luxi and Jinling, have started their work normally and smoothly. The existing units of Xin’an chemical and Hesheng organosilicon in Zhejiang Province have also started their work smoothly. The organosilicon monomer units of Zhongtian Dongfang fluorosilicone are now in a state of shutdown. At present, some factories still need to pay after the festival Pay early orders, moderate new orders, external quotation also began to temporarily closed.

Multi positive, silicone DMC will continue to rise in the future

At present, new orders of silicone DMC continue to increase, and some factories still mainly deliver early-stage contracts after the commencement of construction. The spot supply is tight, and the prices of downstream products are also rising strongly with the rise of raw materials. The confidence of upstream and downstream industries continues to improve. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that the market of silicone DMC will continue to rise in the short term, and the “rising voice” may have just begun.

On February 22, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 1 commodity that rose, 0 commodity that fell, and 6 commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include fluorite; stable products include hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

On February 22, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials was mainly stable. The price of raw material fluorite was 2744.44 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite rose slightly. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants were generally started, and some in site mines and flotation plants were shut down. The supply of fluorite in the site was tight. However, the downstream market was mainly stable, and the price of fluorite was affected and the increase was limited. As of the 22nd, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 22nd, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market is 10600 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60% The supply of goods is normal, the market of goods on the floor is normal recently, and the ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise in the near future, and business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market situation of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is temporarily stable, the overall demand of downstream market has little change, and the demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock, the price of trichloromethane rises slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, Shandong offers 2350-2450 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. As the price of hydrofluoric acid returns to stability, the affected price of refrigerants is temporarily stable. The price trend of R134a is mainly stable and the market is relatively strong. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was mainly volatile.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since new year’s day, the terminal manufacturers have been parking for maintenance, and the demand has declined. The hydrogen peroxide market has opened a downward channel, and the price has dropped by a thousand miles. From January to the Spring Festival, the market price of hydrogen peroxide is 1430 yuan / ton in early January, and 1093 yuan / ton on February 20, with an overall price drop of 23.54%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from December 2020 to February 14, 2021, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide rises steadily every week in December, with an increase of 1% – 2%, and the highest weekly increase is close to 3%. Since January, terminal demand has been weakening, and hydrogen peroxide has been falling continuously, with a weekly decline of about one point. The hydrogen peroxide market has fallen sharply towards the end of the month, and the hydrogen peroxide price has dropped by 9.79% in January. In February, before the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide still dropped. After the Spring Festival, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. As of February 20, the price of hydrogen peroxide had dropped by more than 23% compared with the beginning of January.

Consumption off-season coming, hydrogen peroxide still weak decline after the festival

After the new year’s day, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal paper industry and caprolactam manufacturers have stopped for maintenance in succession. Coupled with the Limited Logistics in Hebei and environmental protection factors, hydrogen peroxide has entered the traditional off-season consumption, the terminal demand has shrunk sharply, and the price has been falling all the way. The mainstream quotation fell below 1200 yuan / ton from 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down more than 9%, and went straight to 10%.

Since February, the demand of terminal paper industry and caprolactam has declined, and hydrogen peroxide has started a sharp decline mode. On the eve of the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide dropped by more than 11%. During the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers operate normally, and the supply is loose. After the festival, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continued to reduce the ex factory price, and the price continued to fall. By the 20th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market had dropped to 1093 yuan / ton, 12.88% lower than that in early February.

Mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in various regions of China

On February 20, the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was about 1130 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong was 1000 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1200 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton from the beginning of February.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the printing paper industry of hydrogen peroxide terminal has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the hydrogen peroxide price is still weak in the short term.