1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.2%, and a decrease of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 16 was 78.60.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1670 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1700 yuan / T at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the international perspective, India’s RCF urea bidding was launched on the afternoon of 14, with a total bidding volume of 3.6 million tons, and the lowest price of 279.25 CFR US dollars / ton on the east coast. The price was not significantly different from the domestic mainstream regional prices, forming a certain support for the domestic market.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising slightly from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2916.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.17%, 23.71% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.05%, compared with the same period last year Flat. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly, falling 0.60% from 5600.00 at the beginning of the week to 5566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise sharply in October. As of October 16, the average price of acetic anhydride was 5800.00 yuan / ton, up 2.43% from 5662.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 1.69% lower than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose in October, the market of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose slightly, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol market rose strongly in October, and the methanol price rose sharply by 7.10%. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the increase of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride was favorable.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials rose in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; after the holiday, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment replaced catalyst, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment decreased, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was insufficient. On the whole, the supply of acetic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is increasing, and the support of acetic anhydride rising is sufficient. It is expected that the pressure of acetic anhydride rise in the future market and the price of acetic anhydride will rise.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 15, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11433 yuan / ton, which was increased by 67 yuan / ton or 0.59% compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was reduced by 300 yuan / ton, or 2.56%.

This week, the domestic market of n-propanol was adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall trend was stable. At present, the main offer price of n-propanol domestic trade market including packaging was about 11000-115000 yuan / ton, which was increased by about 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The ex factory price of domestic factory bulk water was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, which was roughly stable compared with the beginning of the week. Domestic Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.) started normal normal production of n-propanol, and made an external offer of 10000 yuan / T (bulk water). This week, the market sales of n-propanol were relatively stable, and the prices of manufacturers in Nanjing fluctuated, and the range was not large.

In terms of raw materials, since October, the local market of ethylene external market has been running at a high level and fluctuated slightly, and the overall market is still rising compared with the beginning of the month. Among them, the Asian ethylene market is more obvious. On the 13th, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR quoted 865-875 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 825-835 US dollars / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, up 10 US dollars / ton. In recent years, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising, and the demand is fair.

Stable demand and stable raw materials

At present, the inventory of n-propanol manufacturers in China is basically normal, the production and operation are normal, the demand and supply of n-propanol are mainly contracted, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general, the demand of factories is relatively stable, and there is more trade between factories. The high price of ethylene of upstream products supports the cost of n-propanol. At present, the market of n-propanol is flat and the atmosphere of negotiation is general. Business club is propanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market stable operation, price range fluctuations. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

After the festival, the domestic polysilicon market maintained the situation before the festival, and today’s market slightly stabilized. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about three polysilicon manufacturers have been maintaining maintenance or load reduction. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been gradually restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. However, the inventory of most enterprises increased slightly compared with the previous month, and the situation of enterprise signing continued, and the orders basically ended in October. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 65000-70000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon will maintain a basic balance between supply and demand, and the medium-term market may enter a pattern of loose supply. In particular, with the further tightening of the export of photovoltaic products, downstream demand may be relatively low. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will be affected by it, and it is not ruled out that it may continue to fall.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (September 30): 15366.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market is stable, and the mainstream average price is 15366.67/t. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market offers are stable, with Lanhua NBR 3308 as the mainstream, Nandi 1052 as the mainstream, and Russia as 2665 as the main market, with the price of RMB 14900-15300 / T, RMB 16400-16800 / T, and RMB 13400-13700 / T, respectively.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to remain high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 6288 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 8650 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, the market price of NBR is expected to remain high in the short term.