This week (3.2-6), the liquid ammonia market continued to rise slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the domestic liquid ammonia market rose significantly compared with that in mid February, and since the rebound began in late February, the range has exceeded 10%, In particular, the prices of some enterprises in the North continued to rise. Last week, some manufacturers slightly increased their prices by 50-100 yuan / ton. This time, liquid ammonia has increased by 500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business association, the increase of liquid ammonia this week was 0.36%.

Since February, affected by the epidemic situation, the price of liquid ammonia has continued to decline, mainly because the dealers’ return rate is not high, the market has entered an empty window period, and they are generally in a closed state. In addition, the main problem is that the transportation is not smooth, the transportation of liquid ammonia has also entered a bottleneck period, the long-distance and high-speed transportation is limited, and multiple factors are superimposed, resulting in the weak market of liquid ammonia. However, in the past two weeks, we can see that On the one hand, the operation rate of liquid ammonia enterprises remained normal, and the manufacturers did not have much inventory in the early stage. Moreover, according to a manufacturer in Shandong, at present, the traffic has been basically solved, the manufacturer’s shipment is unblocked, and the demand of the downstream is slightly warmed up. In the spring farming season, the downstream fertilizer manufacturers increase their purchase, and the up-down linkage liquid ammonia market finally ushers in the warming up period. The main quotation in Shandong is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Continued last week’s upward trend, this week’s stable operation of liquid ammonia in North China led to a better market driven by the recovery of demand. In the early stage, the conversion of urea and the control of ammonia led to the low level of ammonia in the enterprise, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure was relieved. This week’s price slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in North China was 2700-2900 yuan / ton up and down.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Northwest China is still stable. Compared with last week, the quotation of enterprises has not changed much. Some enterprises have increased their quotation slightly. The main transportation problems have been alleviated obviously. On the one hand, the production has been stable at present, and the ammonia volume of enterprises has increased slightly. On the other hand, the commencement of downstream enterprises has also improved, and the delivery speed and strength of manufacturers have increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The price of Northwest mainstream is 2500-2600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is a small peak in the peak season driven by the recovery of demand, and the manufacturer’s operating rate increases. With the increasing operating rate of downstream manufacturers, the pressure on liquid ammonia inventory has been alleviated to some extent. It is expected that the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand with the coming of the peak season of spring ploughing, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a moderate trend, Prices will stabilize in the medium and long term.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week the domestic bromine market is still weak and stable. The average price of bromine remains at about 30277 yuan / ton, down 13.49% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: due to the delay of construction period in domestic bromine market this week, the overall start-up of the market is still at a low level, the enterprise inventory has been exhausted, the market supply is tight, but the downstream flame retardant and other markets are just in poor demand, the market supply and demand are weak, and the industry’s trading is light. At present, the mainstream enterprises offer about 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream market of bromine in China is up and down in different ways this week. The market has not yet fully recovered. At present, sulfur is up 19.08%, about 603 yuan / ton at present; sulfuric acid is down 4.025% in the week, about 300 yuan / ton at present; caustic soda is running steadily, about 602 yuan / ton at present; soda ash is up 1.93% in the week, about 1583 yuan / ton before the year. In the downstream, the market performance of flame retardants is relatively weak, the development of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates is relatively low, the overall rigid demand is weak, and the supply and demand are weak, which has a negative impact on the price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the domestic bromine market is basically in the off-market period, the spot supply is insufficient, the downstream demand is poor, and the overall support of the market is insufficient. It is expected that it will maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term, and the market will usher in a turnaround after the two sessions and the epidemic.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the first day was 1053.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 28th day was 1060.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63%. The current price is 15.87% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the overall price of formaldehyde in the domestic market is mainly consolidated. As of the 28th, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 1000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 1200 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has not been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%, which have been restarted. Formaldehyde manufacturers are returning to work one after another, but as far as the current start-up manufacturers are concerned, the operating rate is still low, the formaldehyde market transaction is light, and the price is basically shock consolidation.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol: the methanol market in North China is narrowed, the ex factory prices of upstream enterprises in Shandong are different, most of the enterprises mainly implement the early-stage contracts, the downstream stock is basically over, and the market transactions are not many; the methanol market in Shanxi Province is mainly stable, and most of the enterprises in Linfen and Jincheng regions ship normally, and the inventory is reduced; the overall price in Hebei Province is general, buy Fangduo shall execute the preliminary contract. The downstream market started in a downturn, maintaining rigid purchase, the formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere was cold, the actual transaction was light, and the formaldehyde market was mainly volatile and consolidated.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market has been narrowed, the cost fluctuation is small, the support for formaldehyde market is limited, and the downstream market is recovering slowly as a whole, and the operating rate of formaldehyde manufacturers is also at a low level, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main factor in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline remained stable this week, with the price of aniline in Nanjing at 7300 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the price of pure benzene fell in shock, with the listing price of 5100-5800 yuan / ton, down 1.28% from last week. This week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid prices fell this week, with production prices in East China at 1550 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from last week.

Product: thanks to the shutdown of Jinling aniline plant, aniline inventory pressure is small. The upstream pure benzene support is weak, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, which brings negative impact.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the contradiction between supply and demand of pure benzene enterprises is prominent. The large refinery in Northeast China has been restarted. The load will be increased in the later period, and the supply pressure will be further increased. Therefore, the market is difficult to improve significantly. It is predicted that pure benzene will still operate weakly in the short term.

Jinling is expected to restart, supply will increase in the later period, and the delivery pressure will increase.

1、 Price trend:

In February 2020, the crude benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4231.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.96% monthly.

On February 27, crude benzene commodity index was 66.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.73% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 68.84% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: in February 2020, crude benzol Market “U” trend. In the middle of the year, due to the low start-up of coking enterprises and the restrictions of on-site transportation, some coking enterprises are reluctant to sell. Downstream hydrogenated benzol enterprises have resumed to start construction one after another, and the on-site operating rate has increased by about 10%, the demand for crude benzol has further increased, and the price of crude benzol has rebounded significantly under multiple favorable effects, with an increase of 300-500 yuan /However, the price of hydrogenated benzene has only increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is too high, and the demand for crude benzene is slowing down. In addition, the price of pure benzene on the outside market is low, the port inventory is high, the price of crude benzene is stable at the end of the month, and the manufacturer has not made a big adjustment to the bidding price.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil: this week, the crude oil changed the form of continuous increase last week, falling for four consecutive days, and WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent was down 10.76% and WTI was down 11.41% compared with February 21.. Pure benzene: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton. Downstream: demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and inventory pressure is high. Friday’s price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from last week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Coking enterprises have low start-up, crude benzene supply has declined, downstream hydrobenzene enterprises have greater cost pressure at present, downstream pure benzene enterprises have low start-up, crude benzene market is difficult to have a good support, it is expected that the crude benzene market volatility is limited in the short term.