1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong was 6583.33 yuan / ton, down 16.24% year on year. Overall, this week’s octanol market was temporarily stable, with the octanol commodity index at 48.41 on February 28.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

The factory quotation of Shandong main octanol manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the quotation of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. for octanol this weekend is 6500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of lihuayi for octanol this week is 6350 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell this week. The quotation dropped from 6622.73 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6359.09 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.98%, down 12.17% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market situation: this week, the DOP factory price is lower. DOP quoted 7233.33 yuan / ton, down 13.20% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, the demand for octanol is general, and the low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. After the adjustment in February, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell, the cost support was weak, the downstream plant started gradually, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, in the early March, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market was sorted out in a narrow range. As of February 26, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2022 yuan / ton. Prices fell 9.81% month on month and 15.38% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the methanol market in North China is narrowed, the ex factory prices of the upstream enterprises in Shandong vary, most of the enterprises implement the early-stage contracts, and the downstream goods are basically finished, with few market transactions; the methanol market in Shanxi Province is mainly stable, and most of the enterprises in Linfen and Jincheng are normal in terms of delivery and inventory reduction; the overall price in Hebei Province is generally closed, and the buyer mostly executes the early-stage contracts 。

Industry chain: formaldehyde: weak operation of domestic formaldehyde market. Only a few large-scale formaldehyde enterprises started at low load, and most of them are still in the state of shutdown. The upstream methanol market is narrow, and the cost has no impact on the formaldehyde Market for the time being. The downstream market is still not recovered, and the overall demand is difficult to improve.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable for the time being. In the short term, downstream acetic acid purchasing continues to be rational. The situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to ease. However, the inventory pressure of some manufacturers is still obvious. Forced to fall in stages, pushing the deal down.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market of dimethyl ether has a general trading situation, and the price has no obvious change. At present, the decline of crude oil causes the price of liquefied gas to keep pace with the drop, and the transaction situation is general, thus dragging down the delivery of dimethyl ether; in addition, the terminal stage replenishment has been basically completed, which leads to the reduction of demand, and the price of dimethyl ether is mainly weak. The price of the main production area in Henan is 3030-3130 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: although some of the upstream enterprises are temporarily able to ship this week, the downstream enterprises have not recovered significantly from the start-up, and the mentality of traders is different. The trend of public health events in overseas countries has intensified, the concerns of the industry have increased, and the peripheral areas such as crude oil have declined significantly. Methanol analysts of the business association predict that China’s methanol market will decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

After the Spring Festival, the market of dimethyl ether mainly fell. On February 3, the average market price of DME was 3340 yuan / ton, and on February 24, the average market price was 3036.67 yuan / ton, with a decline of 9.08% during the period. The price was 10.42% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) shows a continuous downward trend, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak. As of February 24, the units such as Yutai in Hebei, Huitong in Lankao, shengdeyuan in Dezhou, Shandong and Shanxi Lanhua Technology Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance and no quotation was made temporarily; the dimethyl ether unit in Xinyuan, Yima, Henan had failed and no quotation was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3070 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3090 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3220 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3060 yuan / ton.

Dimethyl ether market shows a continuous downward trend. At present, the market operating rate is higher than that of the previous period, and the market supply is increased. However, the recovery of downstream construction is slow, and the current transportation is still limited. Most enterprises’ inventory digestion is slow, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak, which hinders the price rise. Although the international civil market of crude oil and liquefied gas has increased significantly, it has a limited positive effect on DME market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 3 kinds of commodities in the price rise and fall list of bulk commodities on February 24, 2020, including liquefied natural gas (2.57%), liquefied gas (1.25%) and gasoline (0.11%) in the top 3. There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were MTBE (- 1.61%), Brent crude oil (- 1.37%) and dimethyl ether (- 1.19%). The average price of this day was – 0.2%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market operation rate has increased, the demand continues to be weak, the convenience of transportation still has resistance, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the price continues to fall. In the later period, with the recovery of transportation and the resumption of terminal construction, the demand continued to rise, and the price may stop falling and rebounding. It is expected that the weak consolidation will be dominant in the short term, and there is a possibility of rebound in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2175.00 yuan / ton, down 10.12% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market is temporarily stable, February 21 potassium chloride commodity index is 69.05.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the construction of Badu in Anhui Province is temporarily stable. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late February. After the adjustment in January, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s aniline continued to rise last week, with the price of aniline in Nanjing at 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.3% from last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene was 5050-5800 yuan / ton, down 0.56% from last week. This week’s port inventory of pure benzene has not changed much from last week. The downstream starting load of pure benzene is still low, the demand is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active. Some northern enterprises are forced by the pressure of shipment to promote the transaction at a low price.

Nitric acid rose slightly this week, with the production price in East China at 1583.33 yuan / ton, up 1.06% from last week.

Product: this week, affected by Jinling parking and Nanhua cargo preparation, the supply of aniline decreased and the price rose, 2.3% higher than last week.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the demand for styrene downstream of pure benzene is not strong, the inventory pressure increases, the operating rate decreases, and other downstream operating rates also decrease. The demand has greatly restricted the pure benzene market. It is reported that in March, Japan and South Korea will have more equipment overhauls and imports will be reduced.

Jinling start-up time is uncertain, the starting load of aniline enterprises is not high, and the supply of aniline is still small, supporting the price. Stable operation is expected next week.