I. price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province fluctuated greatly in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1960 yuan / ton, the highest value in the middle of the month was 2650 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.2%. At the end of the month, it fell to 2300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.21% compared with the highest value, and the overall increase in the month was 17.35%.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: at the beginning of November, affected by the low level of construction in the region, Shandong continued to rise at the end of October, the price of chloroform soared all the way, and the market started at a low level. Among them, 280000t / a plant maintenance in Dongyue, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, 440000t / a plant maintenance in Jinling, Shandong Province was completed in the middle of November, and Luxi Chemical industry continued to carry out 60% of foreign trade orders, and the spot supply in the industry was tight, which was completed in the middle of the month After that, all enterprises resumed normal production. In addition, the supply of Dongying Jinmao No.1 40000 t / a plant was increasing gradually. In addition, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to decline in the traditional low season of chloroform. At present, the price in the region is about 2200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Liwen is about 2850 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 3800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market is restrained first and then lifted, with obvious regional trend, with an overall decline of 1.48% in the month. At present, 2145 yuan / ton is around; the liquid chlorine market is operated by supply promotion, with a downward shock in the month, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to decline. At present, about 200-500 yuan / ton is over reported, and some enterprises still stick to shipping. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the traditional off-season, the market share of rationing basically bottomed out, and rebounded within the month; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%).

III. future forecast

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, trichloromethane is in the traditional off-season, the downstream market demand is not good and there is no obvious sign of recovery in a short period of time. In addition, the supply of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering. Under the condition that the supply exceeds the demand, the price of trichloromethane is expected to gradually decline.

I. price trend:

In November 2019, crude benzene market went up all the way. The factory price in North China was 4145 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.58%.

On November 30, crude benzene commodity index was 68.75, flat with yesterday, 47.85% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 75.16% higher than 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of crude benzene industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The poor delivery of pure benzene market significantly depressed the crude benzene market, and the crude benzene market as a whole was stable, moderate and small. About the middle of the year, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises began to resume operation. The demand for raw material crude benzene is increasing. Due to factors such as limited production in heating season, coking enterprises are facing tight spot supply in the market, and the crude benzene market is rising steadily under the influence of multiple favorable factors. In the late November, in order to maintain stable production, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have better purchase of crude benzene. At present, the coking enterprises are starting to decline, and the supply of crude benzene market is slightly tight. With the increase of hydrogenated benzene enterprises starting to work at the end of the month, the crude benzene market is increasing The demand for benzene has further increased. The bidding price of crude benzene has remained high and consolidated near the end of the month, and there is limited space for the short-term decline of crude benzene.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil in this month showed an overall upward trend of shock, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Trend forecast:

East China is greatly affected by the export of pure benzene. The port petroleum benzene inventory is relatively low. The export of pure benzene continues to rise, boosting the market. The hydrogenated benzene enterprises are mostly in a loss state in the near future, but the start-up is relatively stable. The supply of the upstream coking enterprises is slightly tight in the near future, and the price of crude benzene is relatively strong in the short term due to multiple factors.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of the end of the week was 7366.67 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.38% from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On November 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 69.40, which was the same as yesterday, 43.88% lower than 123.67 (December 26, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and 23.55% higher than 56.17, the lowest point on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. This week, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride plants are in normal operation, and the main domestic production plants are in high price operation. The main production areas are limited in stock, driving the domestic maleic anhydride market price.

Industrial chain: the international crude oil rose slightly, the downstream unsaturated resin operated stably, and the terminal demand was general. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the weak trend of pure benzene this week fell, and the price of pure benzene on Friday was 5250-5351 yuan / ton. This week’s Hydrogenated benzene market is dominated by wait-and-see. On Friday, the price in East China is about 5250 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 5100 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane is hovering at a low price, maintaining stable operation temporarily. The price of domestic main production plants is relatively high, and the spot goods in main production areas are limited, which drives the market price of domestic maleic anhydride.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there are 18 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices of chemical industry, the top three commodities are acetone (4.84%), isopropanol (4.47%) and hydrofluoric acid (3.85%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are dichloromethane (- 12.99%), trichloromethane (- 9.80%) and ammonium chloride (- 6.76%). This week’s average was – 0.4%.

III. future forecast

At present, although there is no inventory pressure in maleic anhydride plant, the demand is off-season, and the maleic anhydride market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6437.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6375.00 yuan / ton, down 0.97%. The current price dropped 7.78% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in November, the market of potassium carbonate declined in a weak way. On November 4, Wenshui Zhenfeng Agricultural Materials Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 100 yuan / ton, 6500 yuan / ton after adjustment. On November 26, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 200 yuan / ton, 6200 yuan / ton after adjustment. Due to the fact that the price consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride had no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate, the market of potassium carbonate declined in a weak way. Meanwhile, it was required to The demand side is weak and the price adjustment is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchasing is general, and the quotation is mainly down. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts believe that the recent trading atmosphere of potash fertilizer market is relatively cold and the transaction is average. In the short term, the price of potash will remain weak. The long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased slightly. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has risen to 9700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has increased. Due to the decrease of fluorite market supply and the improvement of refrigerant market in the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded higher.

The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased. In the near future, the factory’s delivery is normal. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. For the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to purchase on demand, the operating rate of the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is about 60%, the domestic spot supply is normal, and the domestic price trend has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, and the northern market The price of hydrofluoric acid is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China has risen, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has generally gone, and the market price has rebounded. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is about 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and that in hydrofluoric acid market is rising.

In the near future, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid remains high. The ex factory price of fluorite in China is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant is in normal operation. The mine and flotation plant in the field are in normal operation. The supply of fluorite in the field is normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains low. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is general, which leads to the temporary stability of the market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected.

In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may usher in a “turning point”.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant units has not changed much, but the quotation of downstream refrigerants has increased. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the near future has decreased, and fluorite price remains high, which has a certain positive support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the future may continue to rise slightly.