First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly. By the end of the weekend, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride was 6850 yuan/ton, which was 2.14% lower than the initial price of 7000 yuan/ton, and 12.18% lower than the same period last year. About 6700-6900 yuan/ton of ortho-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 6800-7100 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations. There is sufficient spot supply in the market. The manufacturers reflect that the recent situation of goods is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen down, the onset rate of phthalic anhydride is more than 60%, the spot supply is normal, some manufacturers reflect that the situation of recent goods is not good, the inventory of manufacturers has increased compared with the earlier period, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly fallen. In the near future, the price of the upstream raw material phthalic acid market is mainly fluctuating, the price of the port phthalic acid is not changing much, and there are still devices in the phthalic acid plant for maintenance, but the spot delivery of phthalic acid in the bank is less than that in the first ten days of September, and the affected price in the phthalic anhydride market drops slightly; the downstream plant still maintains the rigid purchase, and the main flow of the on-site phthalic acid source negotiation is 6700-6900 yuan / ton, and the main flow of naphthalene source negotiation is 6200 yuan / ton.- 6300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6700-6900 yuan/ton, the market price is slightly lower, some enterprises in North China are declining, downstream start-up is general, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride goods are generally on the move, manufacturers’inventory has increased, high-end transaction is blocked, phthalic anhydride prices are lower.

Upstream: the execution price of domestic ortho benzene Sinopec for upstream products is 6900 yuan / ton. As the domestic ortho benzene manufacturers are still under maintenance, the supply of goods within the site is not high, and the price of ortho benzene remains high. However, the price of imported ortho benzene in the port area has declined and the price has declined. Recently, the price of ortho benzene in the port has declined, and the port inventory is low, and the price of external ortho benzene quotation has fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. However, the downstream demand is not good and the market price of phthalic anhydride is falling.

Downstream: DOP market prices fell, isooctanol prices temporarily stabilized, DOP raw material costs fell. The price of DOP fell, the downstream of DOP was adjusted by shocks, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was stable, the downstream PVC market was adjusted by shocks, the high-end transaction of DOP was blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market was 7700-8000 yuan / ton, the downstream price of terminal was lower, the demand was bad for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was slightly lower.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream is stable, the terminal demand is reduced, and the decline of DOP price is slowed down. Phthalic anhydride analysts of business associations believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain mainly volatile, with a price of about 6850 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4375.00 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4362.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%, and the current price fell by 4.90% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market is weak and downward, the market trading atmosphere is cold and clear, the mentality of potassium nitrate manufacturers is empty, the volume of goods is poor, overall, the starting rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall stock of potassium nitrate is at a low level, there is no sales pressure, the downstream purchasing volume is a small amount of replenishment, there is basically no backup situation, and the price of potassium nitrate is weak. Domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks that the market of potassium nitrate falls this week. After the festival, the traditional peak season of “Gold SEP, Silver OCT” is inadequate, the spot trade is not warm, and the demand for potassium nitrate is expected to improve greatly in the short term, and the market may be reorganized.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of October 10, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5,400 yuan/ton, which fell 0.37% in the same period last month and 3.76% in the same period last year. Domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and some areas are strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic ethanol market is steadily rising, the atmosphere of taking goods in the lower reaches of Shandong province is still acceptable, which supports the booming mood of liquor enterprises and the rise of waterless quotations of large factories; the supply in northern Jiangsu continues to be low, and driven by the surrounding rising trend, the focus of negotiations moves upward; the current market in central China is smooth, and some factories queue up to pick up goods, but Huaxing starts today, and subsequent supply is expected to increase and continue to rise. There is insufficient momentum; the price of corn purchases in Northeast China continues to decline, and liquor companies are watching the market cautiously.

Industry Chain: Corn: New grain in North China is on the market, corn in the near future is out of storage alternately, the supply of corn market is relatively sufficient, and spot quotation in Northeast China is further declining. But after the National Day holidays, deep processing enterprises in some areas have resumed production, and the rising start-up rate helps to stimulate the demand for maize. Overall, the fundamentals are tepid, but considering the end of the auction and the low level of inventory, potential profits support the price of maize.
Ethyl acetate: The domestic market atmosphere of ethyl acetate is general. The price of raw material acetic acid has been reduced in some areas, and the cost of raw material has a negative impact. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals in the field are generally supported, and shipments are still dominant in East China and North China. Affected by the abundant supply side, South China is declining. It is expected that the domestic ethyl acetate Market will be consolidated in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market or high-level consolidation in the short term will weaken in the long run as supply increases.

Price Trend

In September 2019, the domestic market of 1# lead ingots declined after the shock. The average price of domestic market was 17 150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16 693.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 0.91%.

On October 8, the lead commodity index was 104.26, up 0.84 points from yesterday, down 22.20% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 39.70% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In September 2019, Lun lead showed a low trend. The spot lead price in East China was strong. Influenced by the environmental protection and production restriction of smelters before National Day, the overall performance was relatively strong. This month, the lead price increased by about 400. The mainstream price of brand lead in Shanghai maintained around 1700-17150 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai maintains around 1700-17150 yuan/ton. The overall performance of waste batteries is weak, slightly reduced. The main quotation of waste batteries for electric vehicles is around 8800 yuan/ton, and that for automobiles is around 8100 yuan/ton. After the festival, with the end of production restriction, manufacturers began to work one after another, lead production increased, there is the possibility of a high drop.

Industry: Base metals are in a situation of blocked and pressured decline. Eurozone data is weak in the week. Britain is facing heavy resistance to leave Europe. The US House of Representatives announced a formal impeachment investigation on President Trump. The US dollar surged 99.2 points, surging 99.2 points, and basic metals fell all the way.

Supply and demand: According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on September 18, the global lead supply gap narrowed to 4,200 tons in July and 13,100 tons in June. In the first seven months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 47,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 35,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on September 18, the global lead market supply gap was 177,000 tons in January-July 2019 and 265,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of July, the total stock was 27,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to July 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 7.329 million tons, an increase of 11.70% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 3.577 million tons, an increase of 782,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States fell by 11,000 tons from January to July 2019. In July 2019, the output of refined lead was 105.27 million tons and the consumption was 105.74 million tons.

Domestic events:

Waste lead-acid batteries will change dramatically. Will old batteries still make money by implementing new standards on October 1st? After environmental inspections began in 2017, a large number of illegal smelters were devastated. More than 80% of the used batteries flowing into illegal channels have experienced the embarrassment of no one recycling them. Large-scale environmental inspection has made the recycling mode of waste batteries, which has lasted for more than 10 years, begin to face changes. After environmental protection supervision, the waste battery market in the past two years has been in a relatively depressed state compared with previous years.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. Apart from the PMI data which is difficult to be optimistic, only the employment data in the United States can be expected. The US Dollar Index over 99 is prone to rise and fall, which will increase the expectation of opening market after the festival. The only possible expectation is the willingness to replenish goods after the festival.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, propylene market prices rose sharply in mid-September and fell sharply in the second half of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7596 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was a monthly low price of 7531 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.86%. This month’s high price appeared on September 17, 8004 yuan per ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: the price of propylene enterprises in September 1st was increased by 50~100 yuan / ton on the 2 day after the stabilization in September 1st, and only a few enterprises rose a little on the day of 6~8, and the price remained stable on the 6~8 day. The price on 9~10 day was down by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of some enterprises increased by 50 yuan / ton on the 11 day. The average daily price of 12~15 was generally stable. The price rose sharply in the middle of the month, and the price rose by 300/ and 18 days on the 16 and 17 days. Firm prices fell slightly from 19 to 22, flat on 23, slightly down on 24, stable on 25 and 26, and began to show a downward trend on 27. Today, they continue to decline by 200 to 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the market turnover is around 7450 to 7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Near the National Day holiday, due to logistics constraints, some upstream manufacturers have increased inventory pressure, there is a certain demand for warehousing.

Industry chain: upstream, the Saudi Arabian incident in mid-month led to a sharp jump in crude oil, most chemical products have followed up, propylene rose by 4.31% in two days. Later crude oil market slightly declined, relatively low, propylene support is weak. On the downstream side, affected by environmental protection, the downstream propylene plant load reduction, prudent purchasing, mainly just needed, weak demand side, propylene is not optimistic.

This month PP spot shocks steadily up, but the future market is not ideal. Although the production restriction order of polypropylene plant is expected to be implemented in many areas of China, the recent rework and commissioning of some factories have led to the increase of plant start-up rate in polypropylene enterprises and the expected supply of more negative prices. The upsurge of pre-festival stock-up in downstream factories has basically been completed. Recent purchases are more general and high-end prices are less traded. It is expected that the recent trend of PP will probably continue the trend of shock adjustment, and the positive effect on propylene is limited.

In September, the domestic propylene market rose steadily and declined at the end of the month. Cost support is weak, downstream demand is relatively light, more wait-and-see mentality, it is expected that the future market will be weak consolidation, propylene has a negative impact.

The trend of propylene oxide in September is similar to that of propylene. It began to decline in the latter half of the year, with a monthly decrease of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 7.01%, which has a favorable impact on propylene or air.

After the fall of epichlorohydrin in September, it began to climb all the way, with a monthly increase of 11.94% and a higher monthly amplitude of 23.29%. It is expected that high-level finishing operation will dominate in the short term, which will have a positive impact on the price of propylene.

The monthly amplitude of n-butanol is less than 2%, which has little effect on propylene.

Octanol was stable in the first half of September and slightly declined after the second half of the month. Due to approaching the National Day holiday, environmental protection and transportation inspection are strict, cost support is weak, downstream market prices also decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is generally, and at present, the octanol inventory is low, tight delivery, high-end decline, low-end touches the whole controllable, it is expected that after the national day, the octanol market or shock rise, has a certain positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market rose steadily in mid-month in September, with a monthly increase of 13.08%. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation, with limited benefits for propylene.

In September, the phenol Market in East China rose by a large margin of 16.28%, but the downstream inquiries were scarce, the terminal factories became weak, the National Day Holiday was approaching, there was no lack of delisting performance, the shipment of goods was not smooth, along with the market offer, the center of gravity was depressed by low prices, narrow decline, the transaction was relatively cold. It is expected that some traders in the phenol Market are eager to send goods at a low price, so the prices continue to fall. Olefin has little effect.

In September, the acetone market in East China also rose by 28.62%, but at the end of the month, the market talks were cold and the offer was weak. Near the National Day holiday, the market trading atmosphere slowed down, the downstream terminal factories purchased few real offers, the holder’s offer range fluctuated, and the sentiment of shipment was strong, the real transaction was insufficient. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the volume of transactions will be limited, which has little impact on propylene.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that in general, propylene declined after September. Upstream crude oil market downturn; approaching national day, logistics restrictions, refineries have a certain row demand; downstream environmental impact, manufacturers load reduction, procurement mainly based on demand, so it is expected that in the near future, Shandong propylene prices will still have downward.