Market Review

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose sharply this week. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2830 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a sharp increase of 5.6% in the week.

quotations analysis

Products: This week, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has risen sharply. Enterprises are gradually restoring to normal. Inventory pressure is not high. Lower-stream traders often pick up goods on demand, and the atmosphere of market negotiation is still acceptable. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2700-2830 yuan/ton; that in East China is about 2850-3050 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 3100 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the natural gas market gradually warmed up this week, with a slight increase in price. The average price at the beginning of the week was 2990 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 3056 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.53%. The supply of liquid chlorine market was tight, the stock level in the industry was low, and the ex-factory price of mainstream enterprises was raised. At present, enterprises reported 500-600 yuan/ton more. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market is in the off-season, the demand of terminal air-conditioning industry is flat, and the demand of pharmaceutical, agricultural and solvent industries is stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the overall dichloromethane market is gradually restoring, spot supply is normalizing, downstream demand is flat, trading is weak, and the operators are more wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane will be shaken and adjusted in the near future.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell. According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average domestic methanol price was 1970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1994 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The average domestic methanol price rose by 1.22% and the maximum amplitude was 12.89%. The price fell by 2.52% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol mainland market rebounded in the first half of August, and returned to the downward channel in the second half of August. The Shandong market rebounded first in the first ten days due to the centralized equipment maintenance and the downstream periodic stock reserve, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The methanol market declined rapidly due to the concentrated pressure of the supply increase and the low futures market in the second ten days. The harbor shocks are narrow, stable in the first ten days and weak in the second ten days. In terms of newly built methanol to olefins in China, 600,000 tons per year in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, 600,000 tons per year in Chengzhi, Nanjing and 1.8 million tons per year in Zhongan combined MTO plant produced dimerization in early August.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This month, the formaldehyde market rose narrowly compared with July. Affected by the upstream methanol market, the formaldehyde market rose narrowly in the early and middle of this month, but the downstream demand was low and the volume of single transactions was weak. After the middle of this month, the upstream methanol market began to decline, but the downstream market started to improve slightly, combined with the overall low start of the formaldehyde market, the low market supply and the downstream demand increased. Under the influence, the offer of formaldehyde enterprises is stable and the profit margin is good, but the overall transaction has not reached the ideal state. In September, under the influence of environmental protection policy, the formaldehyde and downstream market will start or be limited, and the cost side has fallen to a relatively low level. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will oscillate lower in early September.

Dimethyl ether: In August, domestic dimethyl ether market prices rose and fell. At the beginning of the month, due to the relatively high profit of two methyl ether, the enterprises started to increase. The increase in the quantity of goods supplied by the market resulted in the lack of price rise and signs of decline, while the terminal was on the right track, and the turnover was not strong enough. In order to avoid further price declines, the Enterprises Limited sales and promoted prices. End-to-end demand support is insufficient and the market continues to fall into a weak situation. In order to avoid falling prices, Xinlian began to implement a bottom-keeping policy, thus protecting market prices sideways. However, with the rising price of raw material methanol, the profit margin of enterprises is gradually narrowed, so the cost factors promote the overall rise of dimethyl ether prices. In the situation of dimethyl ether price rising continuously and narrowly, some shortage traders began to purchase on demand, but did not cause a large-scale incremental trading in the market. The overall performance was general, and prices fell negatively. Dimethyl ether (DME) trade continued to show a cool performance after the late ten days. Even if mainstream enterprises intervened in the market, it had limited impact on the market. During this month, Xinlian carried out several bottom-guaranteed policies. After the settlement price was announced, there were signs of a small price increase. However, due to the negative impact of the market, it is difficult for prices to rise.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has risen sharply this month, with a rise of 650 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 700 yuan/ton in North China. At the beginning of the month, the East China supplier was informed of the production restriction and the 800,000 tons acetic acid plant in Soap, Jiangsu, was shut down, which led to the downstream active purchase of spare goods under the fear of acetic acid upsurge in the later period, and promoted the market to rise at a low level. Afterwards, due to the overhaul and shutdown of the air separation unit and the planned overhaul of the Huayi plant in Anhui Province, the acetic acid Market in Shaanxi Province continued to rise and the price gradually increased. In view of the sustained bullish mood in the latter period, the acetic acid export orders increased significantly this month, encountering the advantages of BP in Malaysia and Celanese in Singapore, such as parking overhaul in the latter period, domestic suppliers’supply and replenishment, which made the domestic acetic acid market short of supply and demand. Considering the substantive digestion of the downstream, the supplier’s increase was mainly rational.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, methanol in the mainland continued to decline in late August, with local market prices falling to the production cost of methanol plants; new methanol-to-olefin plants were put into operation one after another, while MTO load of Phase II of Chengzhi in Nanjing was not high; production time of Baofeng in Shandong, Luxi and Ningxia was delayed; with the early maintenance of olefin plants, such as Ningxia, was resumed one after another. Pound, Shenhua Yulin, etc., olefin start-up has been restored. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, with an estimated arrival of more than 1 million tons in August and 90-950,000 tons in September; 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin are planned to be put into operation in October under the orderly construction of new methanol plants in China; Rongxin in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation in September; Yingde in Jingmen in late August; near the National Day, the Northern Environmental Protection Supervision The surveillance was strengthened and formaldehyde trade unions in the north were expected to decline in September. With the concentrated release of bad news such as high inventory of methanol ports, abundant inventory in the mainland and weak downstream traditional demand, the relative supply-over-demand pattern of methanol has not changed. Methanol analysts of business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to be vulnerable to shocks. With the advent of National Day, environmental protection and safety inspections in the north are rigorous, and information about the policy of production restriction needs to be paid attention to.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 8,233 yuan/ton as of September 4, which was 1.02% lower than that of the previous year and 34.13% lower than that of the previous year. The domestic market for cyclohexanone is slightly up.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market slightly upward, downstream chemical fiber demand is general, solvent market just need to purchase, market wait-and-see is strong, rarely heard of transactions. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in Shandong market is delivered in cash from 8300 to 8500, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash from 8600 to 8800, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash from 8800 to 9000.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: The focus of pure benzene Market in East China is rising, with discussions in September at 5470-5520 yuan/ton, in September at 5500-5550 yuan/ton and in October at 5470-5490 yuan/ton. Holders offer high prices, low prices are hard to find.
Caprolactam: Caprolactam market continues to consolidate, pure benzene trend is relatively strong, PA6 slice Market small bid, but the terminal follow-up is still cautious. The main spot price of caprolactam liquid is 1210-12300 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered; the price of the northern part is 1170 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the price of the solid market middleman is 12600-12700 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.
3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to consolidate.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the stabilization of potassium sulfate Market in August was the main local shock, and the market weakened at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream offer price of 50% granules in the potassium sulfate Market is about 3000-3100 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, the price of potassium sulfate is stable and the trend is good. Mannheim’s operating rate is maintained at about 60%. The manufacturer has no sales pressure and some products are out of stock. By the end of the month, the market began to weaken, the mainstream factory quotation for 50% powder 2850 yuan, 50% particles 2950 yuan, 52% water-soluble powder 3000 yuan, price loosening, general sales. Generally speaking, the potassium sulfate market still has no obvious positive or negative factors, but the situation in the environment is also not optimistic, and the price is expected to show a trend of gradual and slow underground. On the export side, the export volume of potassium sulfate in the first half of the year is considerable, and the demand for tobacco fertilizer in the second half of the year is also predicted to be favorable for potassium sulfate.

III. Industrial Chain

Upstream: potassium chloride overall trading has not significantly warmed up, the downstream market is not good, the demand is not strong, the former and new units are general, the market continues to lack good demand, the supply side is loose, imports and domestic potassium touch bottom slightly adjustment. Autumn fertilizer delivery is limited and bullish, but the momentum for improvement is still insufficient.

Downstream: In autumn, the demand for main chlorine group in compound fertilizer production is reduced, and the new unit quantity of potassium sulfate is reduced, and the preferential promotion is expected to relax slightly.

IV. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that potassium sulfate domestic sales of new single decreases, the market has no obvious positive or negative factors, demand expectations downward, price focus pressure, preferential space widening.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise this week. Business Club monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 10043 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10 217 yuan/ton at the weekend, 1.74% increase in the week, 1.74% maximum amplitude in the week, 14.94% rise in price and 24.14% decrease over the previous year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market has been boosting strongly. Last weekend, the high price of the external market boosted the offer. The increase of Huajin Pipeline Transport in North China led to the decrease of export. In addition, the high price of the external market sustained the increase of Sinopec’s supply price, and the market rose rapidly. During the week, due to the parking downstream of Qixiang and the increase of export in Fushun, the spot supply in North China was abundant, but the spot supply in East China was scarce. Some high-priced goods in North China were influxed and supplemented, and the spot market was high. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market has limited follow-up, and some just need high-price inquiry intention is not high, but there is no low-price supply in the market, some just need passive high-price replenishment. In terms of price, the delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is 10700 yuan/ton, and the quotation in East China refers to 11000 yuan/ton, which is up 400-500 yuan/ton annually.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China and South China butadiene prices increased 300 yuan/ton to 1050-10600 yuan/ton; Liaotong Chemical Industry 130 tons of supply bidding for export, the base price increased 500 yuan/ton to 1020 yuan/ton, the trading range was 10210-10380 yuan/ton, the total volume in a week was only 130 tons; Fushun Petrochemical surplus was exported, the closing Wednesday trading range was in the closing Wednesday trading range. 9950-9960 yuan/ton, with a total turnover volume of 1050 tons in the cycle; Nanjing Chengzhi supplies Baling Petrochemical Company with part of its supply, and the plant is scheduled to stop for maintenance from September 1 to 7; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listing price is increased by 300 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton, with actual single negotiation; Zibo Qixiang Shun-Butadiene Rubber Plant is parked within the week, butadiene is sold out entirely, and the price is raised by itself. Refer to 10600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic butadiene-styrene plant start-up load of 4.8% this week, mainly due to Bridgestone and Nantong Shenhua plant shutdown: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuguo chemical styrene-butadiene rubber plant continue to stop; Jihua styrene-butadiene plant two-line operation and production; Zhejiang Weitai, Yangtze stone The chemical butadiene-styrene plant runs on the first line, the Shenhua Chemical Short Stop Overhaul, the Lanzhou Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant runs on two lines, the Fushun Petrochemical Company maintains the low-load operation of the fourth line, the Bridgestone butadiene-styrene plant stops for a short time and disappears, and the Qilu Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant Ru

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, domestic high cis-butadiene rubber factory prices have been rising, the mainstream increase is 200 yuan/ton; domestic high cis-butadiene rubber mainstream factory prices rose to 1082-11000 yuan/ton range. The start-up rate of domestic high Shun cis-butadiene rubber plant is only around 45%, while Qixiang Tengda Shun-butadiene plant stops, and Dushanzi and Lande Shun-butadiene plant continue to stop and repair, so the start-up rate is still relatively low in the cycle.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, domestic manufacturers and tank yard inventory is low, and East China spot is partial. On the short side, the downstream rubber market has limited follow-up, high-price transactions are difficult to release, synthetic rubber profit pressure, overall load is expected to decline. Short-term sustained high prices boost the enthusiasm of downstream warehouse replenishment. Domestic and foreign manufacturers have good shipments and shortage of spot resources in East China. Although the current high prices are difficult to sustain volume trading, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is not strong enough to keep pace with the rise, in the short term, domestic supply still has some support, and manufacturers have low inventories to supply it. Price has obvious support, the market has no low-price supply replenishment expectations, business community butadiene analysts expect that next week the domestic butadiene market high finishing, it is recommended to pay attention to manufacturers’prices and volume.