In October, the price of domestic rare earth market fell sharply. Influenced by domestic policies and the reopening of Myanmar customs, the trend of domestic rare earth market fell sharply. According to the business society rare earth sector index, on October 30, the rare earth index was 342 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 65.80% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 26.20% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of October 31, the average price of neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium in the rare earth metals in China was 370500 yuan / ton, down 9.08% in October, 2025000 yuan / ton, 12.9% and 660000 yuan / ton, respectively, down 5.04% in October. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 294500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.24% in October; the price of dysprosium oxide is 1535000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 17.69% in October; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 355000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.19% in October; the average price of neodymium oxide is 296500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.20% in October. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 370500 yuan / ton, with a drop of 9.08% in October; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1535000 yuan / ton, with a drop of 17.69% in October.

In October, the price trend of dysprosium terbium series of heavy rare earth dropped sharply. Myanmar has passed the customs, the supply pattern of domestic heavy rare earth market has changed, and the domestic supply has increased. In addition, the domestic demand is limited in the near future, and the domestic price has dropped sharply. In the near future, the domestic policy is still fermenting, which brings some good expectations for the domestic heavy rare earth market.

Since October, the price of light rare earth in the rare earth market has changed frequently. In October, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products dropped sharply, the price of neodymium oxide and praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell sharply. In addition, the downstream demand for light rare earth has not improved significantly. A small amount of replenishment is needed by downstream businesses. The actual transaction price is still at a low level, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. In the middle of October, the market price of light rare earth dropped successively, but 10 At the end of the month, the market price of light rare earth rose, but the increase was very limited. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future Large enterprise groups in the market are reluctant to sell, rare earth market is general, and trading volume has little change.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will be maintained at a low level. However, the downstream demand for rare earth will not be improved in the near future. It is expected that the market price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will be maintained at a low level, but the market price of light rare earth will be improved.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (October 30, 2019): 11375 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10900-11100 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11000-11100 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12000-12200 yuan / ton, in Tianjin is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, in Huangpu is 11300-11500 yuan / ton. 。

3. Key points of analysis: in the first ten days of October, the silicon price was running steadily at a low level. In the late ten days, affected by the price adjustment to the normal water period in some areas of Sichuan, the silicon production cost increased and the supply decreased, while the main factories supplying raw materials for domestic silicone plants are concentrated in Sichuan. At present, the overall willingness of silicon plants to maintain the price has been significantly strengthened.

According to the data of business agency, as of October 30, the average price of metal silicon (441 × 104m3) in the domestic market was 11375 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.17% compared with the average price of 11133.33 yuan / ton on October 18.

The market’s expectation of rising domestic production costs and production reduction is beginning to spread. The sales prices of mainstream manufacturers have been slightly increased. Some traders are mainly on the sidelines, with average trading.

4. Prediction in the future: production reduction has become a foregone conclusion in the near future in China. In the future, some silicon plants in Xinjiang are mainly waiting to maintain their idle capacity before entering the winter. In the end of October to the beginning of November, the production increase is mainly based on the overall supply moving down, and the downstream demand change is mainly waiting. It is expected that the short-term operation of metal silicon will be mainly strong.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the price of domestic PVC on October 29 was 6637.5 yuan / ton, down 0.26% compared with the price of domestic PVC on the previous day (28), up 0.49%%.

II. Market analysis

Products: PVC futures fluctuated on the 29th due to the triple accident in Inner Mongolia. The spot market is stable as a whole, and the quotations of individual enterprises fluctuate slightly. At present, the social inventory is at a low level, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream products industry is general, the maintenance just needs replenishment, and some businesses have obvious emotions of price reduction and shipment. Near the end of the month, the sales pressure increases, the supply side is good and hard to support the market, and the market transaction center moves down. At present, PVC (5-type calcium carbide interval: 6620-6670 yuan / ton, 5-type mainstream quotation: 6700-6800 yuan / ton, 5-type calcium carbide method: 6050-6120 yuan / ton, 6470-6550 yuan / ton). According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 29, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is about 6410-6750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price of Northwest carbide was temporarily stable on 29th. The price of raw material coke is low and the cost of carbide is generally supported. The downstream products enterprises are generally acceptable, the starting load of hard products is not high, the soft products and high-end medical supplies industries are generally started, the overall market demand has not been significantly improved, and the confidence in the field is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 28, 2019, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, with PET (0.18%) rising. There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were natural rubber (- 1.43%), PC (- 1.41%) and PS (- 0.61%). The average price of this day is – 0.25%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think that: at present, some upstream production enterprises of PVC are overhauled, and the supply side is good for support, but the overall demand of the downstream is limited, and the users purchase on demand, and the confidence in the field is insufficient. PVC market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

I. price trend:

On October 26, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 58.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.84% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.86% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week, the hydrogenation benzene market was mainly shaken and sorted, and the operation rate of coking enterprises gradually recovered after the National Day holiday. Although there are many environmental protection production restrictions in Hebei, the operation rate is relatively stable nationwide, around 70% as a whole. This week, some hydrogenated benzene units were shut down for maintenance, but the overall operating rate is still rising, about 50%. Market supply improved. In terms of price, as of Friday, the price in East China was about 5200 yuan / ton, while in Shandong, it was about 5000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: pure benzene: at the beginning of this week, the pure benzene market was affected by forced air and the spot supply in East China was tight, with the price up. Near the end of the weekend, the shortage of replenishment ended, the market mentality turned to prudence, and the price weakened.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, there are mixed positive and negative factors in the field. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction plan for heating season has not yet been announced, and the hydrobenzene market is mainly volatile.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of Friday (October 25), the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream area is 6350 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with Friday, the price in the mainstream area is basically the same, and the overall operation of n-butanol is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6300-6800 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the n-butanol market is in stable operation as a whole. Due to the expectation of restart of some devices, the atmosphere of spot negotiation in the n-butanol market shows slight signs of fading. The mainstream factory shipments are stable. The downstream users are a little less confident in the later trend. The wait-and-see mood is heavy. The implementation of the contract is mainly long, and the core users are mostly just in need of procurement. The short-term sales pressure of n-butanol in Shandong market is relatively small. This week, the market volume is large, the plant load is reduced, the inventory and sales pressure are relieved in the short term, the focus of the factory shipment negotiation is stable as a whole, supporting the market to make firm offers. At present, this week, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. delivered 6400 yuan / ton from Shandong, 6650 yuan / ton from East China and 6800 yuan / ton from South China.

Industry chain: the overall price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been stable this week, and the market price of propylene in Shandong has been stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the market mentality of propylene has improved. Although the downstream products are still in a downward trend, the overall profit margin is acceptable, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Macroscopically, the price of propylene is mainly stable and has strong desire to rebound. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to recover in the near future.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the data analyst of the business agency, affected by the market sentiment of crude oil rising, the downstream purchasing situation has improved significantly, and it is expected that the overall price of propylene market will rise slightly in the near future.