Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said last Friday (June 2) that if the OPEC and its partner countries do not extend the cut-off agreement until March next year, oil prices may fall more than it is now The

Since the OPEC and other oil-producing countries, including Russia, May 25, Vienna agreed to extend the cut agreement for nine months, Brent crude oil prices have fallen by nearly 8%. Monday (June 5) Asian session, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% to $ 5.05 a barrel.

As a major negotiator of the cut agreement, Novak said in an interview at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week, “If we do not extend the cut agreement, I believe we will see that not only oil prices will fall by 8%, but probably 50% “He stressed that production growth in other countries will not undermine the agreement or target.

Novark also pointed out that “despite the extension of 9 months is the ‘best choice’, but if necessary, the State party has the means to extend or shorten the agreement.Our task is not the price, our task is to inventory.

“The $ 50 per barrel of oil is good for the market, and the price range will increase by $ 50 to $ 60 as demand increases and inventories fall,” he said.

However, the continued increase in US crude oil production has offset OPEC’s efforts to cut inventories to five-year averages. According to the US government data, last week the country’s crude oil production reached 9.34 million tons / day, since August 2015 the highest level since.

Analysts said OPEC is facing more market share to the US shale oil producers risk, which may lead to OPEC second half of the implementation rate of decline in production.

Earlier on Friday, Russian oil company chief executive Igor Sechin said the agreement would stimulate US shale oil production growth, but destined for long-term decline in oil prices.

Against the support of summer’s demands on fertilizer, urea prices rose slightly steady. At present, Shandong mainstream urea prices in the 1550-1560 yuan / ton, Henan mainstream price of 1,600 yuan / ton. Industry sources said that with the summer fertilizer demand from south to north gradually, urea prices are expected to be further support.

Operating rate remained low

This round of price increases since May, mainly by the seasonal demand and supply to reduce the common role. At present, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the south is strong, and demand in the north is still dominated by industrial demand, but the supply is significantly reduced. It is understood that the current operating rate of about 50% in Shandong, the southern region in about 30%, southwest and northeast of the operating rate is also at historically low. In addition to the reduction in supply, many integrated coal chemical enterprises in order to protect the overall profitability of enterprises, compressed urea production capacity. Some enterprises will switch to urea production capacity of methanol and other products. Part of the small business due to unbearable loss of pressure, choose to stop or exit.

This year, environmental pressures soared to accelerate the withdrawal of small businesses. Some medium-sized large enterprises also need to cut production at a specific time or temporarily stop production, supply is limited.

Price recovery has attracted some of the port export supply back. During the Dragon Boat Festival, India ended the import of urea tender, the tender offer the West Coast minimum price of 211.25 US dollars / ton, the East Coast minimum offer 212.25 US dollars / ton. Taking into account the east coast freight 12 US dollars / ton, VAT 15 yuan / ton and other factors, set the price of less than 1,400 yuan / ton. This price is clearly not enough to attract, because some of the port supply back.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Department of Materials Industry Deputy Director Pan Aihua in 2017 China Plastics Industry Conference revealed that in order to curb the nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer industry capacity of the blind expansion, and guide the industry orderly transfer and layout optimization, will be in the nitrogen, phosphate fertilizer industry capacity replacement Program research. Has commissioned the petrochemical industry and petrochemical planning institute research capacity replacement program.

Analysts pointed out that with the urea industry to accelerate production capacity, coupled with the industry is still not in the overall profitability, the urea industry operating rate is difficult to return to the past high level.

Many factors affect the price trend

Urea industry has been a serious excess capacity. However, the market conditions by the demand, transportation and coal costs, environmental protection and other factors, the price trend is more complex.

According to the business monitoring data show that in 2016, the beginning of the manufacturers offer 1430.8 yuan / ton, the end of the average price of manufacturers to maintain at 1665.4 yuan / ton, urea prices rose 16.4%.

1 – 8 months, the downstream demand is weak, urea market continued weak operation. August by the “overrun transport vehicles driving road management regulations”, freight continued to rise, while coal prices continued to rise, environmental protection led to the operating rate continued low operation, urea market showed up to 300 yuan / ton increase, rally in November Slightly retreated, in December and showed a more substantial rise in the end of the year gradually rose gradually flat.

Into 2017, urea prices show a “N” -type trend, the lowest price in April, the manufacturers offer the basic average of 1,500 yuan / ton, the performance of related listed companies improved significantly.

China’s paint industry is a different industry from other special industries, the overall level of paint industry, the overall low level of marketing. Market operation methods and rules of the game is different from the ceramic, wood flooring, hardware, lamps, up to the plate is almost the same, but in China this big market, paint companies have their own unique side.

China’s industrialization and urbanization process for the industrial coatings, architectural coatings and other rapid development provides an opportunity for China’s coatings industry, the technological level of rapid progress, the variety of paint is also increasingly rich and perfect, paint production has also been greatly improved. At present, China is the world’s largest paint producer. Prospective Industry Research Institute data show that in 2016 the paint industry over the year the size of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 18,997,800 tons to the global total coating production of about 64.557 million tons, accounting for the proportion of global output close to 29.42%, ranking first in the world.

According to incomplete statistics, the current nearly 10,000 paint companies are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Sea region. From the provinces of the paint production accounted for the proportion of the national production point of view, in 2015, Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province and Shanghai, the country’s top three paint production areas, Jiangsu Province, 199.33 million tons of production, Hunan Province, about 1.184 million Ton, ranking fourth and fifth in the country.

China’s paint industry’s market capacity prospects, the downstream demand will continue to maintain the growth momentum of the paint industry. According to statistics, in 2016 the paint industry over the annual industrial enterprises above designated size reached 18,997,800 tons, an increase of 7.2%; main business income reached 435.449 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%.

After the development in recent years, the number of enterprises in the industry increased rapidly, the coatings industry market competition has become increasingly fierce, the current paint market environment has become increasingly complex. In the face of competition in the industry, many paint companies are seeking diversified development. At present, diversified development is one of the enterprises’ development strategies of many enterprises including paint enterprises. The so-called diversified development refers to the diversified development. The same product or service of a development strategy, but the implementation of the effect there are significant differences.

China’s current paint industry is about 80% of small and medium enterprises, and this part of the small and medium-sized paint enterprises occupy more than half of the domestic paint market share. In the environmental pressure, supply side reform, raw material prices continue to soar and many other factors under the influence of 80% of the paint business, more than 50% of small paint companies are facing the dilemma of collapse.

Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the domestic prices of rare earth products rose. Some analysts believe that the current round of Rare Rare prices are mainly affected by production quotas, rare earth purchasing and storage, as well as to combat rare earth illegal mining and other supply side policy factors. With the industry supply side of the reform process of deepening, rare earth prices is expected to continue.

Product prices continue to rise

May 15, the South Rare Earth Group released the latest heavy rare earth single oxide listing price, europium oxide prices rose 20,000 yuan to 620,000 yuan / ton, or 3.3%; terbium oxide rose 10 million to 3.5 million / ton, Or 2.9%; lutetium oxide rose 10 million to 5.1 million yuan / ton, or 2.0%; yttria rose 1,000 yuan to 21,000 yuan / ton, or 5.0%.

Prior to this, the North Rare Earth Group has released the third price increase notice, continue to increase the price of praseodymium neodymium rare earth products. Among them, praseodymium neodymium oxide rose 4,000 yuan to 297000 yuan / ton, or 1.37%; lanthanum rose 550 yuan to 15220 yuan / ton, or 3.75%; cerium oxide rose 340 yuan to 11670 yuan / ton, or 3%.

According to Societe Generale Securities statistics, as of May 15, the domestic terbium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and lanthanum oxide and other products prices were up 19.13%, 13.08%, 10.42% and 6.67%.

Affected by price factors, rare earth industry listed companies appear reversed. In the first quarter of 2017, the operating income of rare earth in the north was 1.999 billion yuan, an increase of 142.94%; net profit of 74.46 million yuan, an increase of 1018.7%; Rising colored, Minmetals rare earth net profit of 1.72 million yuan and 8.33 million yuan, Are achieved year on year profitability.

The above-mentioned companies in the financial report pointed out that the first quarter of 2017, the company’s operating income increased year on year mainly due to the rebound in market prices of rare earth products and product sales increased due.

Supply side shrink

It is argued that the rapid contraction of the supply side is the direct cause of the rising price of rare earth in the current round.

Since 2011, the supply of rare earth industry, a serious surplus, the problem of cheap sales, industry profitability continued to decline.

According to statistics, in 2015, the overall loss of rare earth industry 600 million yuan, 2016 January-October the overall loss of 160 million. According to the latest data released by Chilean Consulting, China’s rare earth exports in 2010 were about 46,700 tonnes, up 34.2% year on year, but the export value was only $ 342 million, down 8.4% year-on-year.

Some analysts have pointed out that the “black rare earth” is a large number of rare earth industry caused by excess capacity of the important reasons.

In 2016, China’s rare earth supply is about 168,000 tons, while the national rare earth quota index of about 105,000 tons, calculated, “black rare earth” production close to 63,000 tons, accounting for about 60% of the legitimate supply.

November 2016, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology United Ministry of Ministry of Land and Resources, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Public Security and other departments issued a document from December 2016 to April 2017 in the country to carry out special action against illegal acts of rare earth violations.

Since then, against rare earth illegal special action throughout the country continue to advance. On May 9, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Industry and Industry (Rare Earth Office) organized a meeting on the coordination of inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for rare metals. The meeting informed the progress of the special action phase of the Rare Earth Illegal Regulations.

According to the minutes of the meeting, since the country launched a special action against illegal acts of rare earth violations, a total of 23 provinces (autonomous regions) people’s government organizations on the relevant areas of rare earth mining, smelting separation, comprehensive utilization and trade enterprises to carry out a comprehensive inspection, Enterprises 415, identified 61 illegal clues, has been handled according to 23, and 38 are being processed.

During the period, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in conjunction with the relevant departments of the news media and experts to Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other provinces (regions) rare earth enterprises to carry out on-site verification of the problems found, have requested local verification as soon as possible.

Minutes show that through the early order to rectify, rare earth industry production and management situation has improved. From January to March of 2017, the income from the main business of the rare earth industry increased by 21% year on year and the profit increased by 29% year on year. As of the end of April, lanthanum oxide, neodymium oxide, terbium oxide and other products prices year on year growth of 35%, 5%, 31%.

At the same time, rare earth purchasing and storage continued to carry out effective support for the formation of rare earth prices.

According to the China Securities Research Report, since December 13, 2016, rare earth industry, the State Reserve has completed three rounds of bidding, the cumulative realization of storage and storage of more than 6400 tons. Among them, in January 2017, the second round of the State Reserve tender purchasing and storage of 2,000 tons, the tender price than the previous overall floating 2% -8%.

March 28, the third round of rare earth State Reserve tender landing. The tender information shows that the total amount of the tender for the State Reserve is about 3,000 tons, of which neodymium oxide tender price of about 27 million / ton, the number of 220 tons; dysprosium oxide price of about 1.25 million / ton, the number of 450 tons; The price of about 3.1 million yuan / ton, the number of 178 tons; europium oxide tender price of about 500,000 yuan / ton, the number of 170 tons.

Statistics show that as of March 28, the domestic price of europium oxide tender than the end of 2016 increased by 18.48%; terbium oxide, neodymium oxide tender prices were higher than the end of 2016 growth of 7.74% and 5.51%.

Insiders said that the review of the three purchasing and storage, storage reserves and purchasing and storage prices are gradually increased, the industry generally feel the frequency and size of storage and storage is different from previous years, showing a high frequency, small size, and each micro-premium , Which is conducive to the formation of positive market expectations, help the market confidence and the continued recovery of the economy.

Price is expected to continue

The market generally believe that the current rare earth industry overall order has been improved, product prices are expected to continue to rise.

Societe Generale Securities pointed out in the research report, through the mining, smelting and separation of indicators to further focus on the black and high pressure on the rare earth, the six rare earth group’s voice is increasing, the price control will gradually show.

Huatai Securities believes that the six rare earth group 100% market concentration, the formation of the two north and south two rare earth price alliance to maintain market stability, supply shrinkage demand steadily, purchasing and storage to help the historical accumulation of inventory consumption, rare earth industry has been formed.

From the supply side, in October 2016, the Ministry of Industry issued the “Rare Earth Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)” (hereinafter referred to as “Development Plan”). According to the development plan, by 2020, the domestic rare earth mining will be controlled below 140,000 tons, the average annual growth rate should not be higher than 7.4%; mine mining, smelting separation and comprehensive utilization of resources into the six group management, Large-scale rare earth enterprise groups, no longer add mining rights.

April 13, 2017, the Ministry of Industry issued the “2017 first batch of rare earth production total control plan notice” (hereinafter referred to as “control plan”). According to the control plan, 2017, the domestic rare earth mineral products planned production of 52,500 tons. Among them, the light rare earth project production 43550 tons, medium heavy rare earth production of 8950 tons; the same period, the domestic smelting separation products planned production of 50075 tons. There was no significant change in the quota between the provinces and autonomous regions, and the mining targets were obtained directly from the corresponding rare earth groups.

At the same time, “black rare earth” is expected to strike against normal. February 2017, the Ministry of Commerce and other seven departments jointly issued “on the promotion of important product information traceability system construction guidance” proposed to carry out rare earth enterprises retrospective pilot, the establishment of rare earth special invoices, rare earth products export declarations, business files and other Information sharing mechanism to rare earth mineral products, rare earth smelting separation products as the focus, to production and operation accounting, product packaging logo as the main content, to accelerate the construction of rare earth product traceability system to achieve full traceability.

May 9, the Ministry of Industry in the organization of rare metals inter-ministerial coordination mechanism liaison meeting pointed out that to further increase coordination and cooperation, problem-oriented in-depth promotion of special rectification work, joint disciplinary illegal enterprises, held by the implementation of regulatory requirements Responsibilities of the relevant units and personnel responsibilities; the next step, the relevant departments will form the inspection team to carry out supervision of the relevant provinces (autonomous regions).

From the demand side, the new application of the continuous mining is expected to bring support for rare earth prices.

According to the domestic rare earth consumption structure, at present, about 35% -40% of China’s rare earth is used as permanent magnet material. Rare earth permanent magnetic materials not only for the traditional home appliances, electric bicycles, luggage deduction and other fields, but also for wind power, new energy vehicles, home appliances, energy-saving elevators and other emerging areas.

January 23, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance jointly developed a “new material industry development guide” (hereinafter referred to as “Development Guide”). According to the development guide, the future should speed up the development of new and efficient semiconductor lighting, rare earth luminescent materials technology development, breaking the amorphous alloy in rare earth permanent magnet energy-saving motor application of key technologies, vigorously develop rare earth permanent magnet energy-saving motor and supporting rare earth permanent magnet materials.

Minsheng Securities pointed out in the research report that the future demand side should focus on high-end materials. From the high-end rare earth permanent magnet material demand structure, wind power, new energy vehicles, energy efficient motor is high-end permanent magnet material three growth points. Among them, the high-end materials in the field of new energy automotive applications worthy of attention.

In addition, rare earth in the motor vehicle exhaust purification catalyst, catalytic combustion, petroleum catalytic cracking and other fields of broad prospects.

According to the Minsheng Securities Research Report, from the development of the industry, the domestic automobile exhaust gas purification catalyst industry is in the growth period, one fifth of each year in the car need to replace the catalyst, the market prospect is huge, urgent demand.

At the same time, rare earth exhaust gas purification catalyst used in rare earth is mainly cerium oxide, praseodymium oxide and lanthanum oxide mixture, rare earth exhaust gas purification catalyst low price, good thermal stability, high activity, long life, and With anti-lead poisoning characteristics, there is still no more suitable than the rare earth elements to do the car exhaust catalyst, which is low risk of substitution.

Some brokerage analysts expect the future demand for rare earth industry growth will stabilize at 6% or more, which is expected to increase the demand for rare earth coke is expected to reach 15% -20%.

Modern coal chemical industry is the product of high oil price era. However, there are unexpected circumstances, with the international crude oil prices turned down, all the way soared, China has just emerged from the modern coal chemical industry can be described as suffering, miserable. So, modern coal chemical industry how to deal with the impact of low oil prices?

First, to face the impact of oil prices. International crude oil prices since 147 US dollars / barrel appeared cliff down since once dropping to 40 US dollars / barrel below, is still hovering up and down at 50 dollars. Modern coal chemical industry, many of the breakeven point corresponds to the international crude oil prices in 70 US dollars / barrel, and in the current 50 US dollars / barrel market environment, the modern coal chemical industry is facing a general loss situation.

According to the author understands that the domestic production of several coal-based natural gas demonstration project costs remain high, loss of shadow accompanied, there is no one corporate profit; coal oil project if there is no national consumption tax policy support, must also be a comprehensive loss ; Coal-based ethylene glycol project leading enterprises Danhua company continuous losses, other companies are more loss and less profit, and some are still at the bottom of the loss; coal olefins in addition to a small number of complete industrial chain enterprises, the project is the majority of losses; coal Fertilizer projects due to full capacity surplus, a large area of ​​natural loss is inevitable.

Perhaps some coal chemical companies hope that the international crude oil prices to pick up and improve the market, some companies blindly optimistic that the next three to five years, the international crude oil prices will return to 70 US dollars / barrel above. But the practice has repeatedly told us that long-term energy price forecast has never been allowed, if the fate of enterprises hope in the next few years the international crude oil price forecast is extremely dangerous and unreliable.

Second, to find a response to the policy. In the face of the huge challenges posed by international crude oil prices to the coal chemical industry and the uncertainty of international crude oil prices, coal chemical companies must lose their fantasy, based on the current 50 US dollars / barrel of international crude oil prices in reality even worse market environment Cost reduction, increase the amount of savings, tapping the potential transformation and innovation and development, in order to change the project break-even point, completely reverse the modern coal chemical industry a comprehensive loss of the passive situation.

In fact, according to my understanding, many coal chemical demonstration projects through efforts, has or is changing the status quo. For example, in the same market environment, some coal-to-olefins enterprises through the whole industry chain in all aspects of the “intensive” in the main product production capacity to make a fuss, in the by-product of the deep processing efforts, product cost has been effectively controlled, To achieve a profit; some coal-based ethylene glycol enterprises by improving product quality, so that products are recognized by the downstream business, the full release of production capacity has also realized a turnaround; some coal chemical enterprises in the demonstration upgrade to start an article, For example, some coal-to-olefins project began to use the “one-step” advanced technology and technology from syngas to olefins, which can significantly reduce product costs, reduce consumption and achieve profitability; some coal-based natural gas companies consider adding peak peaking devices To achieve multi-channel sales of products to expand the market to fully release the purpose of production capacity.

If the coal chemical industry to achieve international crude oil based on 50 US dollars / barrel price break even profit, such enterprises will be in the future market in an invincible position.

Modern coal chemical industry is the country to encourage the development of new industries, is still in the industrial demonstration stage, in the initial stage of development that encountered the international oil price sniper, the situation is difficult. On the one hand, the state is introducing relevant policies to support, as soon as the introduction of coal fuel consumption tax five years free preferential policies, I believe will continue to introduce new support policies; the other hand, coal chemical enterprises should be in accordance with the concept of circular economy, To promote the modern coal chemical industry and coal mining, power, petrochemical, chemical fiber, salt chemical industry, metallurgical building materials and other industries integration development, extend the industrial chain, expand industrial clusters, improve resource conversion efficiency and Industrial competitiveness.

As long as the national, local and enterprise three levels of common force, modern coal chemical industry will be able to withstand the impact of low oil prices, ushered in the spring of the spring.