According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the price of 0 # zinc was 24618 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the zinc price of 24402 yuan/ton on January 19.
After experiencing a sharp rise in zinc prices in the first half of the month, zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range of correction this week, with a clear rebound sentiment.
Macroscopic perspective
At the beginning of the week, the US dollar index weakened, while China’s 2025 GDP data met expectations, jointly boosting market sentiment and supporting zinc prices.
Raw material end
At present, the import window for zinc ore in China is still open, but the number of quotations from import ore traders is relatively small, resulting in the continuous low level of zinc concentrate processing fees. Although the profits of the smelter have been restored, the growth rate of production is relatively limited.
Supply and demand side
The domestic market has entered a low season, and demand is showing a weak trend: as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as galvanizing have started holiday mode, and market demand has weakened accordingly. Although there has been a certain degree of decline in domestic social inventory later this week, the overall demand support is clearly insufficient, causing the premium of Shanghai spot zinc to continue to hover at a low level. The continuous accumulation of domestic zinc ingot inventory and weakened demand have become the main factors suppressing the price of zinc in Shanghai.
The operating rate of downstream primary processing enterprises has shown a continuous downward trend, influenced by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, reduced order volume, and high price suppression. The purchasing willingness of enterprises such as galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide has significantly decreased, and the pressure on finished product inventory has continued to rise. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a shutdown mode, and market demand is further weakening.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, zinc prices may continue to fluctuate. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, market trading activity is sluggish, and the weak supply-demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic PP prices rebounded after rising in mid January, and prices of various brand products fluctuated. As of January 20th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 6523.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 4.32% in price level.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The impact of the previous US actions on the international crude oil market has gradually weakened, coupled with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, oil prices have fallen back from high levels, which has led to a decline in upstream support for PP. The rise in propylene is mainly driven by tight supply and rising demand. The shutdown of two PDH units in Qingdao and Yantai has intensified the supply shortage. In the short term, due to high prices, there may be a need for consolidation, but in the medium term, there is still room for slight upward exploration under cost support, pre holiday stocking, and supply maintenance expectations. In terms of propane, the external market remains strong at a high level, boosted by high domestic arrival prices, and the overall focus of the industry remains unchanged. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing strong support for PP costs, but with a slowing trend.
Supply side:
In mid January, the restart and maintenance of domestic PP enterprises were generally balanced, and the overall operating rate slightly increased. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 75.5%, with little difference compared to the first ten days. The current weekly average total output is over 780000 tons, and the inventory position is close to 700000 tons, which has been partially digested. The on-site supply remains abundant. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
The overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry has improved. Buyers chasing higher prices have released orders, their willingness to stock up has increased, and refineries are oversold. At the same time, there is a temporary vacuum in the production stage of the future market, which stabilizes the mentality of industry players and strengthens the support for PP from the demand side. But some terminal enterprises are gradually arranging holidays, and the future production schedule may decline. Subsequently, there may be a demand for year-end fund withdrawal constraints.
Future forecast
In mid January, the domestic PP market prices rose and then consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the strong support from upstream raw materials on the cost side of PP has begun to slow down. Industry load has been adjusted slightly, and there has been an improvement in consumption. Pre holiday stocking may gradually weaken in the future, coupled with the fast accumulation of inventory under the large base production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the PP market may stagnate and enter a correction market.

Trend context: from weakness to stalemate
Early January: Continued weakness: Under the dual pressure of high supply and weak demand, the market has weakly consolidated in the low price range of the past five years.
Mid January: Cost driven, difficult upward trend: Driven by the rise in upstream raw material epoxy propane prices, factory quotations have tentatively increased. But the downstream acceptance is not high, and the market is in a stalemate of “ups and downs dilemma”.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 6016 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The core contradiction in the current market is the pincer attack of “cost push” and “demand drag”:
Cost support is becoming stronger: The price of epoxy propane, the main raw material, is on the rise, continuously pushing up the production cost of propylene glycol, which is the core force supporting market prices and preventing further decline.
Continuous supply and demand pressure:
Adequate supply: In the first half of the month, there were no major device maintenance on the supply side, and the overall supply was sufficient.
Weak demand: The main downstream industries (such as unsaturated resin and polyether) continue to have a flat demand atmosphere, and downstream manufacturers mainly focus on digesting inventory and purchasing on demand, with low acceptance of high priced raw materials.
Short term market outlook
Overall, the propylene glycol market is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
·Upward resistance: If downstream demand fails to effectively improve, price increases driven solely by costs will be difficult to sustain, and the market will face downward pressure after surging.
·Downward support: As long as the price of raw material epoxy propane remains high, the cost bottom of propylene glycol will be very solid, and the space for a significant price drop is also very limited.
Overall, in the first half of January, the propylene glycol market attempted to break out of its trough under strong cost support, but weak demand made its upward path difficult and fell into a typical stalemate.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has risen this month (1.1-1.16), with an average market price of 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16650 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.38%.
In mid January, the trend of magnesium prices showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend, with an overall fluctuating adjustment. The specific reasons mainly lie in three aspects: cost, demand, and inventory
The cost driven effect is evident
At the beginning of the year, magnesium prices fell to the cost critical point of some magnesium factories, causing some enterprises to fall into a loss making situation. However, as the prices of major raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal tend to be relatively stable, the pressure on magnesium plants on the cost side has been alleviated, providing a certain degree of support for the rise in magnesium prices.
The trend of increasing demand is significant:
The magnesium alloy market presents a continuous upward demand pattern. By December 2025, the production of magnesium alloys will achieve a month on month growth of 7000 tons, and top enterprises will have full orders and are intensively scheduling production. This positive trend has effectively driven the increase in demand for raw magnesium. At the same time, the deepening of automobile lightweighting policies has become a powerful driving force for the widespread application of magnesium alloys in the fields of automobiles and two wheeled electric vehicles, making the expected release of potential demand for magnesium alloys increasingly strong. However, the purchasing side of traders still shows a cautious attitude, and customers have a low acceptance of high priced products. Their purchasing behavior is quite conservative, and they only follow up on sporadic purchases based on rigid demands. Due to a decrease in enthusiasm from downstream buyers, prices slightly decreased in the middle of the month.
Inventory dynamics:
In the early stages, inventory levels continued to operate at a low level, while at the same time, some magnesium factories chose to shut down due to operating losses, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of available sources in the market. The inventory structure has also been further optimized, such as the relatively concentrated inventory of large manufacturers in the Shenmu area of Fugu, Shaanxi, which together form a strong support for magnesium prices.
Sudden change in market sentiment direction:
After a rapid rise in prices, the bearish atmosphere in the market has become increasingly strong, and end buyers are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The transaction price has been significantly lowered due to the impact of middlemen’s selling behavior.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to fluctuate and decline, with the possibility of further decline. The main reason is that the pressure caused by inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival continues to increase, and downstream demand has basically stagnated. At the same time, manufacturers have increased the phenomenon of selling goods to alleviate financial pressure.

Introduction: Methanol is a colorless and clear liquid, and its vapor can form an explosive mixture with air, producing blue fire when burned. Methanol can be miscible with organic solvents such as water, ethanol, benzene, and ketones. Its vapor forms an explosive mixture with air, which can ignite and explode when exposed to open flames or high heat energy. The methanol model monitored by Business Society is of superior quality.
In 2025, the domestic methanol market will be affected by supply growth, import shocks, and weak demand, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand, and prices will fluctuate downward throughout the year. Accelerating the layout of green methanol under the global “dual carbon” goal injects variables into the long-term development of the industry. Business Society reviews the market in 2025 based on prices, supply and demand, policies, and external environment, and predicts the trend for 2026.
1、 Core Performance of Methanol Market in 2025: Price Fluctuations Downward, Weak Pattern Throughout the Year
（1） In 2025, the methanol market will continue to be weak, with a downward shift in price focus and periodic fluctuations that are difficult to reverse
Overall trend: oscillating downward, with significant amplitude within the year
According to monitoring data from the Business Society Analysis System, the price of methanol for the whole year of 2025 will follow a trajectory of “first falling, then fluctuating, and then bottoming out”, reaching a high point in mid March (driven by Spring Festival stocking), and bottoming out in early June and late November (affected by the off-season and peak import inventory, respectively). The average spot price at the end of the year has fallen by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a nearly three-year low, and industry profitability continues to be under pressure.
（2） Fluctuating Logic: Short term Factors Disturb, Long term Supply and Demand Dominate
The price has rebounded several times in the short term during the year, driven by temporary events such as the Iran Israel conflict, adjustments to coal supply policies, and seasonal stocking. However, due to the lack of sustainability and the core contradiction of supply-demand imbalance, the rebound quickly fell back without forming a trend reversal.
2、 Analysis of core driving factors: supply-demand imbalance as the core, policy and international situation as auxiliary variables
（1） Supply and demand pattern: Dual expansion on the supply side, weak support on the demand side
The imbalance between supply and demand is the core weakness of the market, with a sharp contrast between the dual increase of “production capacity+imports” on the supply side and the “traditional weakness+emerging shortage” on the demand side.
1. Supply side: Double high production capacity and imports, severely loose supply
By 2025, the total domestic methanol production capacity will reach 108.045 million tons per year (+5% year-on-year), with the newly added capacity concentrated in the northwest coal production field. The average annual operating rate of coal to methanol plants is 80%, while that of natural gas plants is 49%. The overall operating rate of the industry exceeds 78%, and the production is sufficient.
The expected import volume is 14.28 million tons (+5.9% year-on-year, reaching a historical high). In the second half of the year, overseas sources of goods will flood in, and port inventory will accumulate to a peak of 1.674 million tons in November, strongly suppressing spot prices.
2. Demand side: Traditional weakness, emerging still in the cultivation period
The core downstream MTO industry is affected by the inverted profit of polyolefins, resulting in long-term losses and low operating levels of external procurement equipment; The growth rate of traditional downstream demand such as formaldehyde and acetic acid has slowed down, and small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced their burden, resulting in weakened methanol digestion capacity.

Emerging demands such as methanol fuel and commercial vehicles are gradually being released, but due to their small scale, limited by standards and supporting facilities, they cannot make up for the traditional demand gap in the short term.
（2） Policy and External Environment: Accelerating Green Transformation, Moderately Disturbing International Situation
1. Policy environment: Dual carbon driven transformation, traditional industries under pressure
The domestic “dual carbon” target promotes the layout of green methanol, and many regions have introduced supportive policies. However, traditional coal and natural gas based methanol still account for over 95%. The policies of coal supply guarantee and environmental protection production restriction have affected the cost and supply stability of traditional methanol, exacerbating profit pressure.
2. International situation: loose global supply, short-term geopolitical disturbances
Global methanol supply is loose, and low international prices are dragging down domestic demand. Events such as the Israel Iran conflict and maintenance of Iranian facilities have temporarily disrupted import volumes, but have not changed the overall situation, and the impact is limited and short-lived.
3、 Market outlook for 2026: Short term stage rebound, long-term pattern reconstruction is expected
（1） Short term (early 2026): Import contraction combined with inventory depletion, prices may experience a temporary rebound
At the beginning of 2026, the winter inspection in Iran led to a contraction in imports, coupled with downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival, easing port inventory pressure, improving supply and demand margins, and a temporary rebound in prices. However, the rebound height is still fluctuating at a low level due to the limitations of MTO profit recovery and traditional demand recovery.
（2） Long term: The rapid rise of green methanol and the gradual restructuring of the industry landscape
In the long run, the planned growth of green methanol production capacity will slow down, and traditional methanol will still dominate in the next 2-3 years. With the advancement of technology and cost reduction, the potential application of green methanol in the fields of shipping and new energy vehicles is released, and coupled with the pressure of the EU CBAM policy, it will become the core track. High cost traditional equipment is accelerating its clearance, increasing industry concentration, and shifting towards a “green, high-end, and centralized” pattern.
4. Summary
The core contradiction in the methanol market in 2025 is the imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a downward fluctuation in prices. In the short term of 2026, there may be an improvement due to import contraction and inventory depletion, but the industry is still in a transitional period between clearing traditional production capacity and cultivating green production capacity. In the future, breakthroughs and application expansion of green methanol technology, as well as the recovery of traditional demand, will determine the evolution of the industry’s landscape and lead it towards a new pattern of green transformation.