On November 22, the market was very quiet at the beginning of the week. The venue paid more attention to the bidding of a petrochemical in East China, and the negotiation performance was very cold. Then, as the auction started at 15000 yuan / ton, a few traders offered 17000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the market was not built and turned. The offer continued to go down to 16800 yuan / ton. I heard that there were few real orders in the venue.

Upstream, the phenol and acetone market declined by about 50 yuan / ton in a narrow range, and the market weakness stabilized. The market reference price of phenol in East China is 9350 yuan / ton, the offer around Yanshan and Shandong is 9300-9350 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 9500-9600 yuan / ton. The acetone market in East China refers to a narrow downward trend, and the negotiation is 5650 yuan / ton. The downstream epoxy resin comes from the negative support of the cost side, the market is sorted and operated, and there is little fluctuation. For reference, it leaves the factory in barrels of 29000-30000 yuan / ton, and the PC end factory is reduced intensively, so the market lacks positive support.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 4533.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5100.00 yuan / ton on November 19, up 566.67 yuan / ton, or 12.50%, and 55.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose sharply this week. On November 20, the calcium carbide commodity index was 133.62, the same as that on November 19, down 37.04% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 140.80% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016.

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the downstream demand has an upward trend

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganon quoted 5100 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian offered calcium carbide at 5000 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quoted 5200 yuan / ton this weekend, up 600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1600 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of Sinoma this weekend is 1600 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1620 yuan / ton, which is 130 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell first and then rose this week. This week, the PVC quotation first fell from 9240.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9010.00 yuan / ton on November 18, a decrease of 2.49%, and then rose to 9120.00 yuan / ton on November 19, an increase of 1.22%, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%. PVC prices first fell and then rose this week. The market has an upward trend. Downstream customers have strengthened their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, PVC prices this week have a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market stopped falling and rebounded, and calcium carbide rose slightly in the future

In late November, the calcium carbide market may rise slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, but the downstream PVC market began to stop falling and rebound, and the downstream demand strengthened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late November.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (November 18): 7220 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: at present, the market supply is sufficient, the domestic acetic acid manufacturers operate normally, the enterprise quotation is stable, the downstream purchase is mainly rational, the actual transaction is limited, the market trading and negotiation on shipment, and the transaction price may be relatively low. The field operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 17): 14700.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is weak, the supply of factories and devices is normal, the supply of goods in the market is stable, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the goods holder mainly talks about shipment, the transaction of downstream terminal products is general, the export orders are reduced, the market trading is light, and the market market is weak under the supply-demand game. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 13800-14500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14300-15000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market may decrease slightly, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 16 was 5380 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of November 15, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 589300 tons, a decrease of 15200 tons or 2.51% compared with last Monday and 13900 tons or 2.30% compared with last Thursday.

On November 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5445 yuan / ton, up 215 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and down 210 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Oil prices fluctuated in the game of tight inventory and the suppression of demand by the epidemic. In the afternoon, Meg’s external offer was shaken and sorted out. Recently, the ship’s offer was slightly higher than US $695 / T, and the offer was near us $690 / T. it was estimated that it was around us $695 / T through negotiation. With the decline of coal purchase price and the relaxation of power restriction, some manufacturers are planning to restart the unit, the operating rate of MEG coal route is slightly upward, and the downstream polyester plants just need to purchase due to the high pressure of product inventory and the weak support of futures market. From the perspective of fundamentals, there has been no significant improvement in the short term.

Forecast: low shock.