The PTA factory’s plan to restart the equipment has been postponed, and there has been little change in overall demand. The cost side support is still acceptable. This week (September 15-19), the domestic PTA market experienced narrow fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week.
On the one hand, Russia and Ukraine have triggered potential supply risks, especially with concerns about the supply of crude oil from a certain European country once again increasing. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen recently, supporting PTA costs. As of September 18th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.26 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.92 per barrel.
PTA processing fees are still at a low level for the year, factories are operating at a loss, and the current domestic industry operating rate is around 76%. Recently, there are expectations of a restart of domestic facilities, but some PTA factories have added maintenance plans for October and November, which is positive for market sentiment.
On the demand side, there were not many changes in the polyester plant, with slight fluctuations in local loads, and the overall load rebounded to 91%. The terminal performance is lukewarm, and the traditional peak season terminal performance is not as expected. The order situation is average, and inventory is suppressing fabric prices. For example, the price of polyester filament has been lowered, and the inventory of raw materials has decreased. The pessimistic sentiment in the market is spreading.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support is strong, but the expected increase in PTA supply side and downstream procurement enthusiasm are hindered. It is expected that the domestic PTA market will mainly experience weak fluctuations next week.

According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, the PP market in China in September was shaky, and the price of various brands fell more or less. As of September 17, domestic producers and traders drew the mainstream bidding price at about 7,113.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of -0.93% from the price level in early September.
Price Movement
In terms of raw materials:
At the beginning of September, the geo-situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East remained calm, and market concerns about crude oil supply decreased. At the same time, OPEC + production growth strategy continued to this day, seasonal demand synchronously faded, and international oil prices shocked. The price of propylene was boosted by Haiwei’s repair news in the early days, but the onsite supply was abundant, and the price rise was greatly resisted.
Supply:
In September, PP enterprise start-up rate in China was reduced to a high level. By the time of publication, the overall load level of the domestic industry was reduced from 80% at the beginning to about 75%, the average total weekly output fell to less than 790,000 tons. However, recently, some production lines have been restarted, and 450,000 tons of the first line of the new production line in Ningbo in the second phase of 900,000 tons were put into production.
In terms of demand:
In September, in the traditional polypropylene high season, plastic knitting, agriculture and other fields of materials have improved to a certain extent. New orders in the field have gradually increased, and the market dynamics are rising. However, the advantages of improving the market trading atmosphere are offset by many negative factors.
Aftermarket Forecast
In September, PP market price shocks in China. Basically, the upstream raw materials market is weak, the overall support for PP is poor. The industry load is high and narrow, and aftermarket supply is expected to be relaxed. Although consumption has improved, the market is dragged by the cost and supply side. The current seasonal bullish market atmosphere is suppressed, and PP is expected to remain stagnant in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 15th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 9560 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton or 1.81% compared to September 7th (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9390 yuan/ton), and an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.14% compared to September 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton).
Recently, the silicon metal market has seen a narrow upward trend
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic silicon metal market has shown a narrow upward trend in recent times, with a slight increase in transaction volume. As of September 16th, the reference price for 441 # in East China is 9500-9700 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9500-9700 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is around 9500-9600 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9700-10000-10000 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of cost: In September, the market prices of bonded coal and charcoal in Xinjiang region showed an increase, while the market prices of other industrial silicon raw materials remained stable, and the overall cost support of silicon metal was strengthened.
In terms of demand: In September, the overall production of downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, with high production scheduling performance and stable demand for raw materials of metallic silicon. The overall operating rate of downstream organic silicon has slightly increased, and the production capacity of some individual factories has increased, but the main pressure on raw material procurement remains. The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum silicon alloys has slightly increased, and downstream demand has moderately recovered. The increase in operating rates mainly comes from the adjustment of operating rates of top enterprises. Combined with the pre National Day period, downstream market demand is expected to increase, and the overall market demand has improved.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. The expected increase in production and demand in the metal silicon market is synchronized. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily with a slight strong trend. Specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand, as well as the replenishment pace of downstream markets before the National Day holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber has first fallen and then slightly rebounded since September. As of September 15th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6471 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% from the beginning of the month. Insufficient cost support, but low processing fees have weakened the willingness of mainstream factories to actively reduce prices. By raising prices to maintain profit margins, it has provided favorable support for short fiber prices.
The gradual increase in OPEC+production in the international crude oil market has led to a decline in crude oil prices. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.99 per barrel. OPEC maintains the tone of increasing production in October, and the risk of oversupply has increased. And with the traditional fuel peak season coming to an end and demand entering a turning point, the supply and demand pattern is showing a situation of oversupply, coupled with the current difficult geopolitical situation to intensify, crude oil prices may continue to weaken.
Since September, the domestic PTA market has slightly declined, with the average spot market price of PTA in East China at 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the beginning of the month. Recently, maintenance facilities such as Hengli Huizhou and Xinfengming have been restarted in early September, partially improving the tight supply situation of PTA in China. The current industry operating rate is around 77%. PTA relies on operating to maintain inventory in the early stage, but it is difficult to continue in the later stage. There is also an expectation of new equipment being put into operation in October, so there is a continuous increase in domestic supply.
The demand for downstream spinning orders has rebounded compared to last month. Although the overall order volume is lower than expected, the improvement in news has boosted the mentality of industry players, and the purchase volume of polyester staple fibers has moderately increased. After entering the traditional “Golden Nine”, the sales performance of categories represented by thermal insulation fabrics is still acceptable, especially the home textile industry, which has contributed to some of the demand growth. Although there has been no significant improvement in the demand for fabric sampling in autumn and winter in some fabric factories, there is still a phenomenon of partial recovery, and the current market orders are still mainly scattered and small orders.
Business analysts believe that the incremental supply trend of PTA on the cost side continues, and the expected peak season of “Golden September” on the demand side has not yet arrived, resulting in slow increase in production for terminal enterprises. If there is no new positive boost, the short-term rise in the polyester staple fiber market may be difficult to continue.

This week (September 8th to September 12th, 2025), the polyester filament market as a whole showed a weak and volatile pattern, failing to usher in the prosperous market of the traditional “Golden September”. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6650-6850 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8000-8150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton.
Insufficient cost support: Despite some positive developments in the crude oil market (such as OPEC’s October production increase plan being lower than expected), PTA’s own supply pressure has increased due to the restart of some maintenance facilities. As of September 9th, the spot price of PTA is between 4600-4610 yuan/ton. The price of another raw material, ethylene glycol (MEG), also experienced a slight decline. The weakness of the raw material side makes polyester filament lack strong upward momentum in cost.
Weak demand performance: The recovery of demand during the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is relatively weak. Although the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises has rebounded (the comprehensive operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is about 64%), it still decreased by 4.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The high inventory of raw fabric has resulted in no significant increase in the total number of new orders, and downstream users are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, with procurement mainly focused on small orders for essential needs. This makes the production and sales data of polyester filament continue to be weak, making it difficult to increase volume.
Supply pressure and inventory: Although mainstream production enterprises have cooperated to reduce production in the early stage to maintain the market, the inventory of polyester filament in polyester factories is gradually recovering. In order to seize market share, some manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, and there is a phenomenon of negotiating discounts when actual transactions are made.
Market sentiment is sluggish: Against the backdrop of no substantial positive developments in costs, demand, and supply, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The industry’s concern about the “long-term decline” has intensified.
It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain weak and fluctuate in the short term. We need to pay attention to the changes in PTA raw material prices and further production and sales strategies of polyester filament enterprises. If there is a significant strengthening on the cost side or an improvement in downstream demand, it may provide a slight boost to the market.