I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since the beginning of this week (10.21), the domestic methanol market has been in a “dive”. As of October 24, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2100 yuan / ton, down 10.64% in the week. Prices fell 4.89% month on month and 34.38% year on year.
II. Market analysis
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Product: in the domestic market, due to the limited delivery in Northwest China last week, the methanol market price in Northwest China fell sharply at the beginning of this week, and the market was full of bearish sentiment. At present, the downstream receiving mood is still poor, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth. Other markets are mainly in decline, and the on-site trading is light. Methanol futures continued to decline, with fluctuations in the port market, trading in the region is limited, mainly wait-and-see. In terms of units, one 300000 t / a methanol unit in Inner Mongolia is under restart, one 600000 T / a methanol unit is under shutdown for maintenance, and one 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi is planned to be under short-term maintenance, and there is no significant change in other aspects.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is declining steadily, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken, the cost side is hard to find support, the environmental protection supervision is continuing, the demand side is low, and some parts are still weak, but the inventory of some other enterprises is not high, and they intend to stabilize the price.
Impact of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde of the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same, and formaldehyde market has a negative impact on methanol market.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market generally fell. At present, the operation of main acetic acid plants in China is stable, and the supply side is relatively loose. Although most manufacturers intend to stabilize the price, under the background that Shandong major enterprises reduce the price sharply again today, the downstream users still keep the price down, other suppliers passively follow the decline, and the mainstream market around the country falls. Spot transactions are just in need, while the current industry operating rate is at a high level, which is expected to be weak later.
Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.
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Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether continued to be stable, some manufacturers slightly reduced, the overall market trading atmosphere was tepid, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers remained. The average price of DME in North China is 3521 yuan / ton, which is 9 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province decreased slightly, with a range of about 30-50 yuan / ton, and the price in other regions was mainly stable. The market price of dimethyl ether in China has remained stable as a whole, but there is no lack of stable operation. Most manufacturers give up profits and take away goods. At present, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is relatively light, the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, the market demand is not high, the operators hold a stable wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high. The upstream methanol market is still sluggish today, and the cost support of DME market is weak. Although the crude oil market rebounded, the favorable factors are not enough, and the demand may be warmer in the later stage. It is expected that the domestic market of DME will keep stable in the short term.
Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether of the business association, the price change trend of the two is slightly different since the beginning of this week (10.21). The market of dimethyl ether has a positive impact on the future market of methanol.
III. future forecast
Business club point of view: in the later stage, Inner Mongolia and other places continue to sell at low prices; downstream delivery is cautious. Macro and crude oil operation is mainly weak, the phenomenon of high port inventory is hard to disappear, the traditional downstream demand tends to shrink, some MTO devices in Shandong are planned to be overhauled, although the price of Northwest upstream enterprises has been greatly reduced, but the water is still rising seriously at present, the methanol analysts of the business community predict that China’s methanol market or weak consolidation is mainly.
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