According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic PP market was in a volatile operation in early March, and the spot prices of each brand were rising and falling. As of March 5, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was about 9416.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.44% on a month-on-month basis.
Cause analysis
The domestic market of propylene in the upstream of PP ushered in a surge mode during the Spring Festival. At present, the international crude oil still rose well. From the situation that the rise of propylene market was blocked, the profit level of propylene was not as good as expected. In the short term, the recovery capacity of overseas units is limited, and it will take some time for propylene production to rise significantly. The price of the market in the early stage has been rising continuously, the shipment situation is booming, and the inventory of the manufacturer is declining. At present, domestic inventory is low, but the price of goods source is high, the downstream users are more resistant and the volume of investment is shrinking. The manufacturer is active in shipping and starts to make profit and go order. It is expected that the propylene price or vibration adjustment operation will be carried out in the near future.
At present, the rise of propylene market is blocked, and the support of PP cost end is still acceptable. After the festival, the domestic recovery speed is favorable to the demand side, and the demand on the site is rapidly unfolding. But the current PP price is also at a high level, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to buy is declining. And this week, inventory rose, and two barrels of oil to the warehouse appeared resistance. In addition, the plant of Ningbo phase II project of Donghua energy started to put into operation in the early stage, and the current PP price is stagnant and fluctuating. The situation of export reduction caused by force majeure is still weak in the external market power in terms of price. The industry is still worried about the lack of supply of chemicals. The increase of overseas market demand has a certain boost on domestic PP price.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 5, the mainstream market offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders also rose greatly, with the price of about 9383.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.05% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, a 10.18% increase on the same period last month. The recent changes in the emission are not significant, the proportion of domestic fiber PP is more than 13%, and the overall output is stable. The high price of the source affects the downstream mentality. At present, the traders respond to the increase of shipping resistance, and expand the profit making space in operation.
After saving, the cost side of PP melt spray material improved and the price of melt blown PP also fell. As of March 5, the average price of pph-y1500 sample enterprises of melt spray material monitored by the business society was 11200 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is stable, and the middle and high-risk areas in the country are cleared at the end of last month. The domestic epidemic prevention situation has been stable and good, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials has declined. The situation of overseas epidemic situation has not changed much, and the multinational government has implemented mandatory masks and the demand is stable. But recently, the price of the melt spray materials has also declined, and ExxonMobil, jumeilai and other high-melt fiber products have been reduced. At present, the background of surplus supply in the melt spray cloth manufacturing market remains unchanged, and the profit is still not ideal.
Post market forecast
PP analysts of business agency think: domestic PP spot market trend volatility adjustment at the beginning of March is mainly. The upstream propylene price rise is blocked, the price is high, and the support for PP cost end is still acceptable. Recently, futures trend is not ideal, there is a certain pressure on the mentality of the market. The high spot price also affects the delivery of production dealers. The current market delivery and investment decrease, and the operation of transferring profit to the order increases. Downstream demand began to shrink, mostly with the strategy of on-demand, polypropylene oil and social inventory began to rise. The supply of overseas goods is tight and the inflation expectation of macro market is not changed. It is expected that the PP market will be strong in the near future.
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