According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been stagnant and consolidating recently, at a relatively high level in the past two months. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4654 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to November 10th.
From a cost perspective, OPEC+has increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The regional situation has eased, and coupled with weakened US demand, US tariff issues have dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices. As of November 25th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of $0.89 or 1.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.80 per barrel, a decrease of $0.92 or 1.5%.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng Ningbo was shut down on November 20th, and the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Honggang Petrochemical was shut down on November 17th and restarted on November 26th. The current PTA operating load is around 72%, and multiple units are under maintenance. With the completion of some short-term maintenance units, there is some pressure on the supply.
The new downstream polyester facilities have been put into operation successively, and some facilities have been postponed for maintenance again. The domestic polyester industry supply has increased, but due to the slow increase in load of the new facilities, the operating rate of the polyester industry has remained around 87%. The demand in the terminal market has shown signs of cooling down. Currently, the production pace of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions still mainly relies on orders received in the early stage as support. The pressure of new orders is gradually weakening, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is decreasing.
Business analysts believe that cost support is weak, and PTA supply will gradually recover in the future. India has cancelled the BIS certification for polyester fibers, and China’s polyester and textile exports are expected to recover. However, the domestic consumer market is weak, and we are cautious about the expectation of a rebound in future orders. Therefore, overall, PTA’s continued lack of action is insufficient.
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