Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.10%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Supply side: Capacity rigidity highlights limited incremental growth
Domestic: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained at 44.135 million tons, and the operating rate is approaching the “ceiling” of production capacity (the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.84 million tons, and the new production capacity of 1.345 million tons has been put into operation in 2025, with only 1.23 million tons waiting to be put into operation, and the long-term supply growth rate is slowing down; there may be new production capacity plans in Xinjiang in the short term, which are expected to bring a small increase in supply, but the impact on the overall pattern is limited.
Overseas: Supply disruptions still exist, with Iceland’s Grundatangi aluminum plant (with a capacity of 320000 tons per year) reducing production by about 2/3 due to electrical equipment failures (affecting production capacity of 200000 tons per year), Mozambique’s aluminum plant facing the risk of power contract expiration (or shutting down 520000 tons of production capacity after March 2026), and insufficient resilience in overseas supply, supporting the global aluminum price risk premium.
Cost side: phased relief of long-term upward pressure
Minor cost reduction: This week, the theoretical production cost of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased due to the reduction in alumina prices, partially easing the cost pressure on enterprises;
Concerns about energy costs: the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose, and there is a possibility of an increase in the price of thermal power electricity; At the same time, the dry season is approaching, and hydropower prices are facing upward pressure, which may drag down corporate profits in the future;
Profit level: Despite the decrease in costs, aluminum prices have synchronously rebounded. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum this week has slightly narrowed compared to last week, and the industry still maintains strong profitability (with an average weekly profit of about 5806 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Structural differentiation and emerging fields become the core driving force
The demand for construction aluminum (aluminum profiles, aluminum templates, etc.) has shown weak growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% in new construction area from January to October. The lag in completion has made it difficult to boost in the short term, and the construction rate of aluminum profiles has dropped to 52.1% on a weekly basis (week on week -0.5%), with sluggish orders for construction profiles.
New energy vehicles: In October, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time (reaching 51.6%). Under the trend of industry lightweighting, the average aluminum consumption per vehicle for new energy vehicles in China is expected to approach 245 kilograms by 2025. The demand for aluminum in components such as body panels and battery casings continues to drive, and the production rate of automotive profiles remains relatively high.
Power infrastructure: The investment in the power grid and the construction of ultra-high voltage are steadily advancing, providing stable support for the demand for aluminum stranded wires and aluminum conductors. The operating rate of aluminum cables is maintained at 63.4% supported by orders, becoming a “ballast stone” for aluminum consumption.
Photovoltaic: The long-term growth logic is stable, but there is no significant project dynamics in the short term. The module production is expected to decrease month on month (November is expected to be 42.64GW, month on month -3.18%), and the demand for aluminum frames and brackets is relatively flat.
Market forecast: Short term oscillation, long-term strong bias
Short term electrolytic aluminum is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, forming a confrontation between macro bearish and fundamental support.
Negative factors: The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December has cooled down, the US dollar has strengthened, the new production capacity in Xinjiang has brought about an increase in supply, and high prices continue to suppress downstream processing links;
Positive factors: The expectation of domestic consumption stimulus policies is still in place, the impressive data of new energy vehicles provides long-term confidence, and overseas supply disruptions (such as low natural gas storage capacity in Germany or rising energy costs) support external aluminum prices.
Expected range: The operating range for electrolytic aluminum prices is 21100-22000 yuan/ton, with a focus on overseas monetary policy trends and the pace of domestic inventory depletion.
In the long run, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On the supply side, the domestic production capacity of 45 million tons remains stable, while overseas growth mainly comes from Indonesia (with newly invested production capacity of 1.22-1.67 million tons, but some production capacity is shut down to offset). The rigidity of global electrolytic aluminum supply is significant, and any unexpected supply disturbance may push up prices.
On the demand side: The decline in traditional sectors (real estate) has narrowed, while demand in emerging sectors (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI related power facilities) continues to grow. Strategic emerging industries such as aerospace and low altitude economy have opened up medium – and long-term demand space in the “15th Five Year Plan”.
On the cost side, the overall price of alumina is weak, but there is a risk of an upward trend in electricity costs (coal prices may rise under the “anti involution” policy). The electrolytic aluminum industry maintains strong profitability, supporting the bottom of prices.
Expected range: The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, with an operating range of 19800-24500 yuan/ton.
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