The propane market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4450 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4527.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 1.74%, which was 9.41% higher than that of the same period last year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: This week, the propane Market in China has risen, and the trading atmosphere is good. As of April 12, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province has not been quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4600 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4580 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4550 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4550 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4450 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4440 yuan/ton, while that in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4440 yuan/ton.
Industry Chain: The domestic liquefied gas market rose broadly this week, with an average price of 4263.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 4410 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 3.44% in the week and 15.73% over the same period last year. The domestic propylene (East China) market rose first and then stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic propylene (East China) market price was 7150 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 7226 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 1.21%, and the price fell 13.1% compared with the same period last year. This week, international oil prices continued to rise, the trend is strong, boosting the market mentality. In addition, at present, some domestic refineries are still in the state of overhaul, low supply and good support effect is obvious, downstream buy-up and not buy-down mentality into the market is positive. The manufacturer has good delivery and no pressure on stock.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 14th week (4.8-4.12) of 2019, there were 27 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 4 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (44.90%), ammonium chloride (15.39%) and polyaluminium chloride (6.91%). There are 22 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are sulphuric acid (-6.62%), caustic soda (-5.86%) and polycrystalline silicon (-5.38%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.9%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Propane analysts at business associations believe that prices have risen continuously to high levels, with some downstream mostly on the sidelines. Terminal consumption is slow, but also somewhat constrained. It is expected that the adjustment of future market highs will be dominant.