On November 23, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 181500-183500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 182500 yuan/ton, up 3250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 182560 yuan/ton, 1.84% higher than the previous trading day, and 38.8% lower than the same period last year.

On the night of the 22nd, the US dollar price fell back, while the crude oil price rose, boosted by the domestic good news, and the overnight metal basically rose, with Shanghai Tin leading the way up by 2.68%. In the morning trading, Shanghai Tin continued its overnight trend, and the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2212 closed 2.12% higher as of the 23rd closing.

In terms of fundamentals, the changes in tin market fundamentals are limited, still showing loose supply and weak demand. After entering the third quarter, the domestic smelters generally started higher, and the tin supply was relatively loose as a whole. In terms of downstream demand, under the current macro economic background, the consumption of electronic products has always been tepid, which has also turned tin supply from tight to loose. In addition, market participants expect the electronics industry to warm up with low expectations, and poor demand expectations drag down the tin market. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

Recently, zinc price rose first and then fell

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 24124 yuan/ton as of November 22, down 0.85% from 24330 yuan/ton on November 13; Compared with the zinc price of 23138 yuan/ton on November 1, it rose by 4.26%. Recently, the zinc market has frequently changed from long to short, with zinc prices rising first and then falling.

Lido: The wind direction is uncertain

Radical interest rate hikes in major economies such as the United States and Europe triggered fears of economic recession. The demand for nonferrous metals was expected to decline, and zinc prices in London fell sharply.

After the environmental protection inspection in Sichuan, the zinc smelters that stopped production for nearly two weeks have been started one after another. The supply of zinc is expected to increase as the supply of zinc in the city recovers.

The processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the production enthusiasm of zinc smelters has risen. At the end of the year, many enterprises have plans to catch up with production. The output of zinc smelters is expected to increase in November, and the supply of zinc in the future market is sufficient.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; On the demand side, the global economic weakness is expected to intensify, the domestic epidemic situation is more frequent, and the demand for zinc is expected to decline; On the supply side, Sichuan environmental protection has ended, zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise, and zinc supply is expected to increase. In general, the supply of zinc has increased and the demand has declined in the near future. The downward pressure on the zinc market has increased. It is expected that the zinc price will fall in shock.

Last week (November 14-20), the domestic viscose staple fiber market price was basically stable, and the market trend was weak. The factory basically implemented early orders, which had little impact on the market. The number of new orders was relatively sporadic. The price of imported and domestic dissolved pulp moved down, and the pressure on the production cost of viscose staple fiber eased. From the perspective of the downstream human cotton yarn market, the price of human cotton yarn continued to be weak and stable, the market demand continued to be weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was light, As the inventory of the yarn mill keeps accumulating, the enthusiasm for replenishing the raw materials may decline in the later period, so the price of viscose staple fiber is difficult to show a strong performance.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber was basically stable last week (November 14-20). As of November 20, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13220 yuan/ton; The price of human cotton yarn is weak and stable. As of November 20, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price is 17866 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Supply and demand

Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low. At present, the overall load is about 65%, and the overall low operating rate of the manufacturer under loss operation may continue. Renmian yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

The supply side of viscose staple fiber may be slightly loose, while the downstream demand is not good enough, so the intention of continuing to purchase viscose staple fiber is limited. In the situation of weakening support at the cost side and poor demand, analysts of the business community predict that the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will continue to operate in a weak and stable manner next week, which does not rule out the possibility of further exploration.

In 2022, the overall trend of bisphenol A will be downward. The aggravation of geographical conflicts will push up the wide fluctuation of oil prices, the repeated domestic health events, the devaluation of the RMB, and the changes in the fundamentals of bisphenol A supply and demand are important factors affecting the trend of bisphenol A in 2022.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer was 16875 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022. After a small rise at the beginning of the year and a period of firmness, the market fell sharply in late February, and the market fell to a low point of 11650 yuan/ton in the year until July 21. Affected by the tight supply, the market pushed up in August September. However, the good times did not last long. Jin Jiu just passed the market and fell again. In October, he gave up all the previous gains, In November, the market downturn continued to be at an annual low.

The price trend of bisphenol A market can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of bisphenol A products, which is a big data service of small program price matching by Netsun in the above figure. When the price of the business community crosses the 7-day or 30-day moving average upward, it indicates that the commodity has entered the upward channel, and vice versa. The following scanning codes are free of charge:

1、 Changes in bisphenol A market trend in 2022

First, in the first quarter, the bisphenol A market was promoted first and then suppressed, and the outbreak of multiple outbreaks became the focus again

In the first quarter, the highest point of bisphenol A market was 19000 yuan/ton on February 10, and the lowest point was 15825 yuan/ton on March 25, with a quarterly amplitude of 17%.

In January, with the increase of the operating rate of the downstream PC industry and the promotion of the centralized stocking of epoxy resin, the bisphenol A market, which was already in short supply, rose rapidly. The centralized stocking before the Spring Festival and the sharp rise in oil prices after the festival boosted the bisphenol A market to a good start in the new year. By February 10, the market quotation had reached 19,000 yuan/ton, the highest point in the year. In March, the oil price fell and the outbreak of epidemic in many places caused the logistics and demand to be blocked. Bisphenol A fell sharply, and the market fell to 16550 yuan/ton on March 31

Second, the bisphenol A market accelerated its decline in the second quarter, with a cumulative decline of 28%

Geopolitical factors combined with epidemic emergencies led to a significant decline in downstream demand and a significant decline in the bisphenol A market in the second quarter. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer was 16550 yuan/ton on April 1, and fell to 12775 yuan/ton on June 30 at the end of the quarter. On July 21, the market continued to decline to the lowest point of the year, 11650 yuan/ton, an overall decline of 28%.

On the one hand, the supply has increased steadily. In the second quarter, the domestic production of bisphenol A was about 600000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the utilization rate of plant capacity was about 75%. On the other hand, the demand of the two downstream markets is poor, and the terminal consumption of the industrial chain is sluggish. The market continues to be in the de stocking stage. With little demand for raw material procurement and lack of market confidence, it continues to fall to the end of July.

Third, multiple advantages are superimposed, and the bisphenol A market continues to rise unilaterally.

Affected by the simultaneous rise of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the shortage of its own supply, bisphenol A ushered in a significant increase in the annual market from August to September. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price was 11,762 yuan/ton on August 1, and rose to 16,475 yuan/ton on September 28, up 40% in two months.

First, the supply is tight. The main production enterprises mainly supply long-term customers, and the off spot sales are limited. In addition, due to the impact of typhoon, the import shipping schedule was postponed to varying degrees, and the supply of imported goods was limited. Second, the industrial chain linkage, both upstream and downstream showed an upward trend, and the transaction of raw material phenol/acetone was firm after a significant increase. The two downstream also showed a continuous increase due to the impact of the industry, with a substantial increase in orders. Third, the RMB continued to depreciate in September, the US dollar exchange rate once reached 7.3, the external market rose synchronously, and the import source negotiations were cautious.

Fourth, the demand is insufficient in the fourth quarter, and bisphenol A is subducted.

After the National Day holiday, with the decline of demand, the market entered into a sharp downward trend. In half a month, BPA has given up all its previous gains. As of November 18, the mainstream offer of BPA market was 11900-12000 yuan/ton. The upstream phenol continued to decline, the downstream demand was seriously insufficient to follow up, and the maintenance devices were about to restart in the fourth quarter, with new devices coming out in succession. The cost side was negative and the supply increased. The short-term bisphenol A market was difficult to be optimistic, and the weak market might continue in the short term.

2、 Changes in supply and demand pattern of domestic bisphenol A market

1. In 2022, the new capacity will be 1.41 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of about 58%.

According to the annual data summary released by the business community at the end of 2021, BPA will enter the “Great Leap Forward” period in the next three years, and 2022 will be an important year for the concentrated release of BPA production capacity in China. Despite the impact of the epidemic, the domestic and international economic environment, and the contraction of profitability, several sets of projects have been put into production successively. By the end of the year, 1.41 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into production, with a year-on-year growth of about 58%, Compared with 2021, the total domestic production capacity increased by 680000 tons/year, an increase of 28%. The specific enterprises put into production are as follows:

2. In 2022, China’s dependence on imports of bisphenol A will further decline.

In 2019 and 2020, the import volume of bisphenol A in China was 606000 tons and 595000 tons respectively, with an import dependency of about 30%. After 2021, the domestic bisphenol A production capacity will expand significantly, and the internal supply capacity will improve. In 2021, the import volume will drop to 490000 tons. In 2022, the production capacity will expand again. In the middle of the year, the import volume will weaken due to the influence of the RMB exchange rate. The import volume is expected to drop to around 400000 tons, and the import dependency will drop to about 15%. At present, China’s BPA import volume mainly comes from South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, China Province of China and Singapore.

3. In 2022, the total domestic production capacity of bisphenol A will be increased to 3.095 million tons/year.

4. The demand for bisphenol A in the downstream of the two major players changes greatly

Bisphenol A is one of the widely used industrial compounds, which is used to manufacture (epoxy resin) EP and (polycarbonate) PC, and is also widely used in plasticizers, flame retardants, coatings, pesticides and other fields. However, as an important downstream consumption, EP and PC account for 97%. In 2021, the proportion of the two downstream demands will be 48% and 49% respectively. However, significant changes will take place in 2022. In the first ten months, the consumption of PC for bisphenol A will increase by 25%, while that of epoxy resin will decline significantly. The proportion of demand for both will continue to expand.

3、 Forecast of bisphenol A market trend

From the perspective of the business community, with the increase of new production capacity of bisphenol A, the supply of China’s internal market has increased significantly. From the perspective of the two downstream demand products, the epoxy resin has not changed much, but the procurement of bisphenol A for PC has shrunk due to the impact of device maintenance, so the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. From the perspective of cost, there are many new phenol ketone units put into production, and the supply side is expected to increase. In the short term, the supply of raw materials will increase, and the possibility of phenol ketone market rising significantly is small, so it is difficult to support the cost of bisphenol A. At present, the domestic epidemic situation has broken out in many places, and various uncertain factors have increased. At the end of the year, there is great resistance from logistics and other aspects. To sum up, the bisphenol A market maintains a range fluctuation operation in the short term, focusing on the operation of upstream and its own new devices at the end of the year. In the long run, China still focuses on the epidemic situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 15933.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. Stabilizing the market situation has enhanced the confidence of the trading and investment market. The turnover of new orders of titanium dioxide enterprises has improved, and some enterprises have started to improve. However, the market is about to enter the slack season, and downstream demand is still less than expected. The actual transaction price is discussed separately. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15000-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased slightly. At present, the overall trading and investment of the market is average, while the downstream market is on the sidelines. There is a limited number of new orders in the market, and the overall market is strong. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium middling ore is about 1400-1420 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is about 2050-2150 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the transaction of titanium concentrate market is general, the overall market is relatively strong, and the actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week. The price of sulfuric acid decreased from 404 yuan/ton last Thursday to 346 yuan/ton this Thursday, a decrease of 14.36%. The sulfur market has declined slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, the titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to titanium dioxide analysts from the Business Club, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased slightly this week. More than 20 domestic enterprises of titanium dioxide have sent letters to declare their growth, which has well stabilized the market. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.