In 2022, the market price of chloroform will fluctuate and decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of chloroform in Shandong was 2237 yuan/ton as of December 30, down 48.86% from 4375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the cost rose and the demand peak was superimposed, and chloroform stepped out of the first wave of the year, with the peak at 5925 yuan/ton in early April; Although the cost rose again in the second half of the year, due to the low demand in the off-season, the second peak of chloroform dropped significantly. The second highest point in the year was 4350 yuan/ton on October 18.

On the cost side: The price of raw methanol in 2022 will show a “M” trend, with two highs of 3142 yuan/ton and 3206 yuan/ton in March and October respectively. The cost side will drive the price trend of chloroform to form two peaks.

Supply side: In 2022, the domestic production capacity of methane chloride will increase by 260000 tons/year, and the supply side of chloroform will continue to be loose.

Demand side: R22 production quota and domestic production quota in 2022 will be 224807 tons and 133534 tons respectively, both of which are equal to those in 2021. The consumption of trichloromethane remained unchanged. Under the pattern of increased supply and no new demand, the price of chloroform declined as a whole. According to the business community, the R22 production quota and the domestic production quota in 2023 will be 181,847 tons and 110,953 tons respectively, both of which will be significantly reduced compared with 2022. In the future, the consumption of chloroform will be further reduced.

Future forecast: The geopolitical crisis has pushed up energy prices, but the global economic recession has dragged down energy prices. In this context, the price of coal and other energy in 2023 will be lower than the peak in 2022 but higher than the average in recent years. Affected by this, the price of methanol will also fluctuate widely, and the cost of trichloromethane will still fluctuate.

Supply side: In 2023, there will still be new methane chloride devices such as Dongying Huatai Phase II which are planned to be put into operation, and the pressure on the supply side will continue to increase.

Demand side: The production quota of R22 in the main downstream will further decline in 2023, and the demand side will continue to weaken under the support of chloroform.

To sum up, the chloroform analysts of the business community believe that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate in the range of 2200~4800 yuan/ton in 2023 under the influence of costs and off peak seasons, and the prices will rise slightly in the peak season as the downstream domestic sales and foreign trade recover, while the off peak season will basically maintain a low consolidation trend.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic TDI price trend fell first and then rose in December. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 17300.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 18733.33 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was more than 1400 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 8.29%.

At the beginning of the month, the TDI market was weak, mainly because the market inquiry atmosphere was light, the market turnover was cold, and the trade market mentality was weak. The cargo holders gave up profits to negotiate shipment, and the market focus moved down. After December 7, the supplier’s information was released, the BASF TDI device in Shanghai was temporarily stopped, and Shanghai Covestro TDI continued to supply in limited quantities. At the same time, it was rumored that Covestro TDI devices might have maintenance plans in January. With all kinds of information, the trade market had a strong bullish atmosphere, and the spot filling in the market was slow. The traders were obviously reluctant to sell, and the TDI offer continued to rise.

The upstream toluene market is weak and downward, with the price at the end of the month at 5920 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month at 6780 yuan/ton, representing an overall decline of 12.68%. The trend of crude oil on the cost side of toluene rose, the raw material support was fair, but the demand side procurement was sluggish, the trading atmosphere was weak, the toluene market was limited, the traders were bearish, and the trend of toluene market continued to decline.

According to the TDI data analyst of the business agency, the TDI market is slowly filled with spot goods, the supplier supports well, the market is bullish, the trade market offer is firm, and the focus of market trading and investment is strong. Although the downstream demand is weak, and the market entry just needs to follow up, the leading position of the supplier is obvious at present. It is expected that the TDI will be stronger in the later stage, and the price range will fluctuate. Pay more attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell in December. As of December 26, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2352 yuan/ton, up 5.26% from 2235 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the month was 2490 yuan/ton. In the first half of December, prices rose due to the overall decline of the start of the dichloromethane industry, but the demand remained sluggish. In the second half of December, prices fell back.

The supply of methane chloride decreased slightly in December.

Raw material prices fell in shock, and the cost of dichloromethane fell slightly. According to the business community, as of December 26, the spot price of methanol was 2558 yuan/ton, down 4.60% from 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Both supply and demand of methanol are weak. On the one hand, with the signing of the Long term Coal Association in 2023, the demand of power plants for market coal will be further weakened, and the profit space of non power industry will be squeezed, mainly relying on rigid demand procurement. Affected by policies, the short-term coal market may weaken steadily. The positive cost of methanol disappears; On the other hand, many downstream dimethyl ether and formaldehyde plants have stopped, the demand is weak, and the domestic methanol market is weak.

In December, the third generation refrigerant R 32 downstream of dichloromethane started at a low level. In addition, the thinner/coating industry started at a low level, with weak demand, and the price of dichloromethane fell.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the cost of dichloromethane is down, the demand is weak, and the supply pressure is still on. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As of December 21, the DMF market continued to decline in 2022, with a decline of 64.31% throughout the year. The high price at the beginning of the year was 15900 yuan/ton, and the low price in December was 5675 yuan/ton. The DMF market will continue to decline in 2022, with the downstream industrial chain running slowly and demand support weak.

In the first quarter, the DMF market rose and fell. The price peaked in February, at 16575.00 yuan/ton. The price remained relatively high. In March, the price began to fall. At the end of March, the DMF price was 14550 yuan/ton, down 8.49% in the first quarter. In March, the DMF price mainly declined, down 8.12% from the same period in February, down 1300 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter of April, the DMF market still maintained a downward trend. As of April 26, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 13250.00 yuan/ton, down 8.63% compared with the beginning of April, 9.86% compared with the same period in March, and the mainstream price was 13200 yuan/ton. In May, the DMF price fluctuated, rising and falling. In early May, the price rose, and in late May, the price fell. Near the end of the month, the price recovered. At present, the mainstream price is 12600 yuan/ton, In June, the DMF price was relatively narrow and strong. From 12550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the price at the beginning of the month rose by 1.2% compared with the end of the month, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. As a whole, the price in June was narrow, and the mainstream price range was 12500-12700 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter, DMF prices started to run in a narrow and weak range in July. From 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11250 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the overall price in July fell by 10%, and the mainstream price range was 10500 yuan/ton. In August, the price still fell mainly. As of August 31, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10625.00 yuan/ton, from 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10625 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall price in August was weak, with an overall decline of 5.56%, The mainstream price range is 10500 yuan/ton. In September, the DMF price dropped sharply, from 10625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in September reached 16.71%. At the end of September, the DMF price stopped falling and rebounded, with a rising trend.

The fourth quarter entered October. As of October 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton. The price of DMF fell in October, from 8850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7175 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in October was 18%. At the end of October, the price of DMF had an upward trend and a strong trend. The price in November was still declining. The price of DMF in November showed a weak downward trend, down 18.12% compared with the same period in October, with a monthly decline of 1300 yuan/ton, The weekly drop was 800 yuan/ton. In December, the DMF market stopped falling and rebounded, and the price rose. As of December 21, the DMF price is easy to rise but hard to fall. The rise may last until the beginning of 2023.

In 2022, DMF has been going all the way for a full year, and the price has reached a low point. At the end of the year, DMF shows signs of stopping falling and rebounding. At present, the industry is not active, and the operating rate remains low, but it is still unable to reverse the downturn. Demand is lack of support, logistics is seriously stranded, and shipment is slow. At present, the DMF market has a rising trend, and manufacturers are operating at a high price, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. It is expected that the DMF price will rise in 2023.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (December 9 to December 16). The spot market price in East China last weekend was 17550 yuan/ton, and this weekend was 17500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton.

Manganese ore: This week, the northern manganese ore market maintained a consolidation operation, and the overall price did not change significantly, with few deals. The southern manganese ore market was active in trading. The semi carbonic acid cargo right in South Africa was relatively concentrated, and the transaction price was 1-1.5 yuan/ton higher than that of last Friday. The upward momentum of the oxidized ore price slowed down. As for the price, as of the 16th, the amount of carbonic acid in Tianjin Port was about 35.5 yuan/ton, that in Gabon was about 42 yuan/ton, and that in Australia was about 45.5 yuan/ton. Mn28 South Africa high-speed railway had a small supply of goods, and the price performance was firm. The quotation was 30.5-31 yuan/ton. The price of Qinzhou Port remained high. The transaction price of Australia was 47 yuan/ton, Gabon was 44-44.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was 39 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has picked up slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, fluctuated slightly in November, and adjusted narrowly in December.

The price of electrolytic manganese market decreased slightly this week. The mainstream price of the market was 16000-16200 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment in the market was heavy, and the overall trading was slightly cold. In terms of supply, enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing, generally above 16000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. However, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, the market is expected to improve to some extent in the near future. The performance of steel recruitment is average, and the price drops slightly, affecting the market mentality. On the whole, the current electrolytic manganese market is stable and weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, there is still a certain demand for winter storage in steel plants, and the market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the domestic silicon manganese market had a strong trend. The spot price rose steadily, the market transaction was good, the manufacturer’s orders were basically full, and the spot inventory was tight. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7200-7300 yuan/ton on December 16, with the average market price of 7225 yuan/ton, up 1.40% weekly.