Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (May 16): 12566.67 yuan / ton

On May 16, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly, down 133.33 yuan / ton or 1.05% compared with the price on May 13, and 24.75% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of propylene in the upstream is low, the cost support is general, the downstream DOP market has a downward trend, and the downstream demand is weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 12500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price was 7460 yuan / ton on May 6 and 7540 yuan / ton on Friday (May 13), up 1.07% from last week; 25% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, the price of toluene fell due to the wide decline of crude oil, the weakening of gasoline market and the weak downstream demand. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the rise of toluene prices in Asia, the focus of market participants shifted from domestic demand to export, the trading atmosphere improved and the price rebounded.

In terms of external trading, toluene rose in Asia this week. On Thursday (May 12), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1058 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $14 / ton, or 1.34%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. The price was 17550 yuan / ton on May 6 and 17250 yuan / ton on May 13, down 1.71% from last week and up 18.69% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 13), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from last week and 45.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded after falling this week. The price was 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6 and 8618 yuan / ton on May 13, down 3.25% from last week and up 14.29% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, the high oil price is bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuation superimposed on short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The opening of the Asian American arbitrage window will drive the increase of toluene exports, which will help to alleviate the bad news caused by weak domestic demand in the short term. Overall, if crude oil and outer disk continue to rise, it may drive toluene higher. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, the domestic gasoline market, the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices, etc.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 12 was 4958.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Year on year decrease of 4.34%.

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday amid concerns about the recession, supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in Europe. In the afternoon, Meg’s external market fluctuated. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo was US $608-610 / ton and the transaction price was US $606-608 / ton. Ethylene glycol is still below the profit and loss line, the restart of the unit is delayed, the pressure on the supply side is small, and the port shipment volume has improved. As of May 12, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.616 million tons, an increase of 20300 tons, an increase of 1.78%, and an increase of 8400 tons, an increase of 0.73%, compared with last Thursday. However, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the polyester start-up fluctuates little.

Prediction: low shock.

Ethylene oxide remained stable, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China.

Ethylene supply is abundant and the bottom is volatile. Ethylene oxide started at a low level, and the market was sorted and repaired. The terminal demand has gradually picked up, the monomer factory is mainly de stocking, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere still exists.

Forecast: temporarily stable.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber market increased by a wide margin compared with the closing price of the previous day on May 10, and the market spot price increased by about 350-400 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12420 yuan / ton, up 2.64% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 11.54% year-on-year.

Industrial focus: on the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand’s production area during May Day is unfavorable to rubber cutting, the output of new rubber is low, and is gradually increasing. Vietnam’s output is normal, but its export is not much; At present, the main production areas in China have been cut one after another. Although the production area in Hainan has been delayed, it is expected to increase the quantity one after another by the end of May, and the entry of new rubber into the market may be postponed to June. On the demand side, the current consumption off-season is superimposed with the impact of public health events, the commencement of downstream product enterprises is limited, the rubber delivery in Shanghai and other places is difficult, the circulation of raw materials and finished products is partially blocked, the export demand decreases and it is difficult to recover in the short term. The slowdown of internal and external demand leads to heavy inventory of finished products of tire enterprises, high pressure to go to the warehouse, the commencement of enterprises is affected, and the procurement demand is slow. On the inventory side, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the delivery rate picked up and the warehousing rate decreased. In terms of import and export, the tense situation of containers continues, the arrival time of shipping schedule is delayed seriously, and the port transportation is not smooth, and the source of tradable goods is locally tense; According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Future forecast: the output and arrival date of new rubber did not meet the expectations, and the local liquidity source was a little tight; Due to the low consumption season and high inventory pressure, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is suppressed, which is expected to be slightly supported in the short-term shock. We will focus on the impact of public health events on ship cargo imports and key domestic circulation places.