According to the statistics of business news agency, on March 1, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 16576 yuan / ton, while on March 11, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 15850 yuan / ton, down 4.38%. In March, the cotton market changed to a good February, and now the futures market entered a continuous decline. The domestic seed cotton settlement has come to an end, and the purchasing heat has cooled down. In 2020 / 2021, the delivery of new cotton is basically completed. At present, there is no seed cotton inventory in Northern Xinjiang, and there is a little seed cotton inventory in southern Xinjiang.

Internationally, USDA’s supply and demand report in March lowered US cotton production and year-end inventory, resulting in a sharp drop in US cotton prices and a decline of more than 4% in ice cotton. Since the beginning of this month, zhengmian’s market has been down, from a high of 16540 yuan / ton to 15600 yuan / ton. In the long run, it is expected that zhengmian’s recent decline will slow down or fluctuate.

Downstream: the profits of spinning enterprises still exist, but the speed of receiving goods has slowed down. The lower futures price in the past half a month makes the wait-and-see mood of textile enterprises gradually rise, and the yarn enterprises begin to adjust their prices. Relevant data show that in January 2021, the grey fabric inventory was 14.94 days, and the yarn inventory was 9.21 days, both of which declined year on year. The textile industry began to pick up in October last year, and textile enterprises began to arrange orders until April this year, with high production profits. At present, there is still a demand for replenishing cotton inventory.

Business analysts believe that the current textile enterprises have sufficient orders, the operating rate continues to rise, the peak demand season in spring and summer highlights, and China’s textile and garment export data from January to February 2021 remains bright, which is good for the cotton market. In the long run, if we pay attention to the trend of futures, the cotton price may fluctuate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2560 yuan / ton on March 10, and 2483.33 yuan / ton on March 1, up 3.09% in early March and 20.94% year-on-year.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on March 10, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2900 yuan / ton, and on March 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

That is to say, after the surge in February, in March, map still showed a steady rising trend, but the rise narrowed. In the first ten days of March, sulfur rose by more than 8%, cost support was strong, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose, downstream demand was stable, and replenishment was on the low end. However, at present, the main manufacturers issued orders, domestic orders were not sold much, the sales pressure of the industry was not big, the price support sentiment was still high, and there were many enterprises stopping orders and reporting. Anhui Province 55% ammonium powder factory offer 2450-2460 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 2400-2500 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2450 yuan / ton.

In the first ten days of March, diammonium phosphate kept stable operation. Most of the enterprises issued export orders and received limited domestic orders. The market supply was tight. In spring farming season, the demand side was strongly supported. Under the situation of supply less than demand, diammonium phosphate had a strong trend, and the price was easy to rise but difficult to fall. In Hubei Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises stopped reporting, while in Gansu Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises offered 2800 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 3300-3400 yuan / ton. In Guizhou, 64% diammonium is priced at 3250-3350 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang, 64% diammonium is priced at 3350 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on March 10, the domestic sulfur market was temporarily stable, and the sulfur price was high. At present, the inventory of refineries in various regions of China was low, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer export market continued to improve. In addition, the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer was approaching, which was good for the sulfur market. The future sulfur market maintained a high level, and the downstream follow-up situation was concerned.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of Business News Agency for ammonium phosphate believe that at present, the cost support is strong. The rising prices of raw material sulfur and phosphate rock support the rise of ammonium phosphate Market. The fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales, and the downstream demand is increasing. Multiple advantages lead to the rising price of ammonium phosphate. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of ammonium phosphate will be delayed and the operation will be stable

1、 Trend analysis

On March 9, copper prices rose slightly, with spot copper price of 66656.67 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 66576.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, 15.01% from the beginning of the year, and 53.16% from the same period last year. LME3 month copper shock weakened, closing at $8856, down 1.67%. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper was up and down, closing at 65930 yuan, down 0.47%. The main international copper contract closed at 58850 yuan, down 0.39%.

The US $1.9 trillion stimulus plan made progress, and the Fed said that it was still not enough to stimulate the fed to raise interest rates. Economic growth and inflation expectations rose, which made the US bond yield and the US dollar stronger. The domestic copper stock in the upper reaches of the river has dropped sharply, and the processing fee TC has continued to drop, resulting in high smelting costs. It is expected that the impact of Chile’s port storm will begin to ease, but the epidemic situation in Peru has not yet improved, and the copper shortage situation is difficult to change. The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but the domestic inventory is still significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years, although it has entered the accumulation cycle. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, the growth of copper import shows that the demand is strong, and the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the downstream demand is still expected to improve, and the space below the copper price is limited, and it is expected that the short-term copper will maintain the fluctuation adjustment trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic mixed xylene market price continued to rise this week. On February 28, the price of mixed xylene was 5460 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 7), the price was 5430 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.55% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

After the festival, xylene rose sharply due to the influence of crude oil, but the downstream demand was weak compared with its rise, which limited the rise of xylene. At the beginning of this week, the bearish crude oil fell back, driving xylene down. In terms of external market, as of March 5, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 753 US dollars / ton, down 51 US dollars / ton or 6.34% in the week compared with February 26; the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 772 US dollars / ton, down 36 US dollars / ton or 4.46% in the week compared with February 26.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose 1000 yuan / ton this week, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 8.06% year on year. As of March 5, the closing prices in Asia were US $850-852 / T FOB Korea and US $868-870 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week, with a slight decline. The price was 730 yuan / ton on February 28 and 4635.83 yuan / ton on March 7, down 1.99% from last week and up 9.48% from the same period last year. The influence of PTA supply pressure was limited, and the poor processing kept low. In March, new PTA production capacity continued to be put into operation, but under the condition of low processing difference, PTA factory’s willingness to repair increased, and warehouse receipts continued to disperse spot pressure, and supply pressure was limited. The downstream polyester load remained high, the PTA demand was good, and the supply and demand pattern was strong. PTA inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in March. Considering that PTA processing gap is at a low level and the space for further compression is limited, PTA processing gap will remain at a low level in March, and PTA price will be relatively strong.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 30% over the beginning of the year and 16.07% over the same period last year. The supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the cost is weak and stable temporarily; the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer DOP in the lower reaches is falling, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

After the festival, the lower reaches of the market is weaker than xylene, which has strong resistance to high price xylene and weak demand follow-up. Entering March, most downstream enterprises are still looking forward to the market in March. In addition to crude oil, external price support, xylene prices are expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11075 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of this week, and the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11075 yuan / ton on March 5 at the end of this week, up 21.70% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The profit of raw material styrene increased. The sharp fall of futures led to the drop of spot price. The good transaction of paper goods after the middle of the week led to the rebound of styrene price. As of March 4, the spot price of styrene in Jiangsu was about 9700 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton or 1.31% compared with the closing price of 9575 yuan / ton on February 25. In addition, most domestic EPS factories have continuously lowered their ex factory prices. In addition, the profit taking of low price goods before the festival has increased, and the overall market transaction is weak. According to the statistics of the business agency, since the end of the festival, as of March 4, Jiangyin Jianlong’s ordinary materials had been delivered at 10900 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton, down 2.68% on a month on month basis, and the fuel had been delivered at 11200 yuan / ton, down 2.61% on a month on month basis.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the delivery pressure of some EPS factories is obvious, and the inventory reduction is negative. However, there may be a device restart next week, and the cost pressure is obvious, so it is expected that the EPS market will fluctuate in a narrow range next week.